Joe Biden strikes back

According to a study from early March, 73% of voters believe that Joe Biden is too old to be president.

The vast majority of Republican voters think so, but also a majority of those who voted for him in 2020, since 61% believe that his age makes him an ineffective president for a second term.

These are devastating data for Biden's presidential campaign, in an election that is also expected to be close.

For example, in another Morning Consult and Bloomberg poll conducted in mid-February, Biden was trailing Trump in seven key states: Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada and Wisconsin.

Within those states, about 8 in 10 voters believe Biden is “too old” (while only 5 in 10 do about Trump).

The current president is 81 years old (he is the oldest president in American history to seek reelection) and, if reelected, he would be 86 when he leaves the White House (Trump would be 82).

It seems that citizens do not value the state of the economy so much, or that he is not accused of any scandal, but rather what occupies conversations about him is his age and his ability to govern.

In this context, his State of the Union speech—the third since he became president—was presented as an important milestone for his future.

It was his great opportunity to show capacity, strength and leadership, before a wide audience, probably the largest he will have until the November 5 elections.

Especially because, although he was recently on a television

talk show

, he has given almost no interviews during his term (only 86 interviews, significantly less than the 422 granted by Barack Obama during his first three years in office).

This speech, therefore, was a priority to reach the general public and change the perception that the surveys reflect about his age and his abilities.

And there is nothing better to show strength than using the lectern to attack Donald Trump.

To appear firm and energetic to confront an opponent who takes advantage of any microphone to do the same thing that Biden has now done.

The president has used the visibility provided by a Union speech to show his face and counterattack, in order to generate the perception of being just as tough, just as strong.

Or to be more so.

In this speech, Biden said “my predecessor” 13 times throughout his speech.

He also spoke about “other people my age,” referring to the virtual Republican candidate and, above all, he clearly differentiated himself from Trump, without quoting him, to give a speech that, at its core, was optimistic in contrast to the always sad descriptions of Trump over America.

He also took advantage of his age to—in a studied strategy—establish the framework that “it is not about how old we are, but about how old our ideas are,” and defending that, unlike his predecessor, since he was young he had defended democracy and the American way of understanding freedom and its place in the world.

The attacks on Trump, defending democracy, have surprised by their intensity although, in fact, in recent weeks a significant change had already been observed in the Democratic candidate's strategy.

This new approach consists of deliberately provoking Trump, seeking to generate a response that makes him nervous and distracts him from his own agenda.

The goal is to keep him busy defending himself or launching increasingly radical counterattacks, which, in theory, could distance the independent voter from the Republican candidate.

In his recent appearance on

Late Night with Seth Meyers

, and in addition to saying that Trump is just as old as him, Biden harshly criticized the Republican, calling him a loser and criticizing his 63 lost trials.

The result: that Trump himself reacted with outbursts, as he also did in response to some of Biden's attacks on his figure during different rallies in recent weeks.

If Joe Biden manages to show, according to his probable idea, the “true face of Trump”, he may be able to persuade a significant number of moderate or undecided voters not to consider voting for him;

and even get his vote to lean towards the Democrats.

This strategy aims to expose Trump's weaknesses and polarizing nature, which could undermine his support among a significant sector of the population that still doubts, especially, Biden's ability to lead the country.

In the same way, the contrast with Trump is used to mobilize the Democratic voter: it does not matter if he is convinced by Biden, what matters is that he votes against Trump.

With this strategy, and seeking attention from Trump's potential responses and reactions, Biden tries to divert the focus from his age and criticism, trusting that his opponent's negative image will be enough to consolidate his voter base. and attract those who have not yet decided their vote.

It is a risky game, but Biden's team seems to have understood that the achievements of the government and the economy (which, of course, he is going to continue talking about, as noted this Thursday in the speech) will not be enough incentive to recover the lost ground (nor will foreign policy, although yesterday it was also predominant in the speech), and that, to do so, he will need to polarize more with Trump, talk about him being a danger to democracy and to the future of the United States, provoke him and confront him directly, as a fundamental part of his electoral strategy.

It is one more sign that electoral campaigns are changing.

Thus, although the economy is usually a historically determining factor in elections, the reality is that the electoral result will depend on a complex mix of satisfaction with economic achievements, the ability of candidates to connect with the electorate on issues that affect them, personal level and the ability to mobilize voters in a political environment that continues to be extremely polarized.

It is, in this polarization, when emotions are more important than ever.

It is, in this polarization, where prejudices already appear much more relevant than judgments, because we give our opinions according to our ideology.

It does not matter what is said, but who says it, since this is an emotional presidential election, rather than a rational one.

Nowadays, data is not as important as sensations.

Biases and prejudices can end up dominating logical thinking and reason.

We are increasingly moving from reason to emotion, and that has decisive electoral effects.

Biden knows this and is going to do what Trump always does: attack.

Antoni Gutiérrez-Rubí

is a communications advisor.

@antonigr;

www.gutierrez-rubi.es

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