As of: March 9, 2024, 11:47 a.m
From: Foreign Policy
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Another war in the Middle East seems closer than expected.
So far the possibility has been downplayed.
An analysis shows a different reality.
Due to current constraints, the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is characterized by an “eye for an eye” mentality.
Hezbollah is believed to be part of Iran's deterrent tactics.
Meanwhile, Israel wants to strike Hamas as a deterrent.
The US warns of a war between Israel and Hezbollah.
They strive for diplomacy.
An approval by the US Congress for arms deliveries could offer new potential for escalation.
This article is available for the first time in German - it was first published by
Foreign Policy
magazine on February 29, 2024 .
It is likely that war will break out between Hezbollah and Israel within the next six to eight months.
It is important to be as clear about this as possible because almost every article written on this topic to date states that Hezbollah and Israel do not want war.
This analysis infers the future from current conditions, but developments in the Middle East are extremely dynamic.
It would be wise for analysts and government officials to review their assumptions and update their expectations.
Coercions from the IDF and Hezbollah prevent war - currently only counter-reactions
It is true that Israel and the Lebanon-based militant group have so far kept their conflict below the threshold of all-out war, preferring to respond to various provocations with a tit-for-tat response.
However, this apparent reluctance does not mean that Hezbollah and Israel do not want war.
Rather, the Hezbollah leadership and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) high command are currently confronted with a number of constraints that have so far slowed down conflict.
No one should rely on these factors – the strategic calculations of the Iranian leadership;
the Biden administration's determination to avoid a regional conflict;
the outcome of the Gaza war, particularly the attitude of Hamas;
and US policy – will hold back the conflict for a long time.
In fact, these restrictions are already breaking down.
There have already been isolated strikes between Israel and Hezbollah from Lebanon.
© picture alliance/dpa |
Ilia Yefimovich
Hezbollah arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – Iranian deterrent in Lebanon
The claim that Hezbollah does not want war is based on the claim that Iran fears a conflict between its proxy and Israel.
The logic underlying these two arguments is compelling: in recent years, Hezbollah has evolved into an expeditionary force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
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It plays an important role in supporting the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad in its bloody campaign against its own people, working with Iran-backed Iraqi militias and training the Houthis in Yemen.
But before it was an arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hezbollah was - and is - primarily an important part of Iran's deterrent.
The group and its alleged 100,000-plus missiles are Iran's second-strike capability.
If Israel or the United States attacked Iran's nuclear program, Hezbollah's arsenal would deliver a devastating blow to Israeli population centers.
As committed as Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other Iranian leaders are to the destruction of Israel, they are concerned with the survival of their regime and do not want to lose the deterrence capability they have invested in Hezbollah.
Fight on two fronts: Israel wants to strike Hamas as a deterrent
Still, it's not hard to imagine a moment when the Iranians loosen the reins of their main proxy.
As Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah made clear in early January in a speech commemorating the life and work of Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani — the IRGC Quds Force commander whom the United States killed in a drone strike in early 2020 — Iranians have a lot Invested time, energy and resources in the development of the so-called Axis of Resistance.
Not only Hezbollah is an important part of this axis, but also Hamas.
Despite the possibility of a lull in fighting in the coming weeks, the Israelis are determined to capture and/or kill the Hamas leadership and render the group unable to pose an organized threat to the State of Israel.
If the IDF threatens to carry out these goals, the Iranians are likely to lift the restrictions under which Nasrallah's forces operate rather than accept Hamas's defeat.
That day seems to be getting closer.
USA puts Israel in its place: war with Hezbollah carries risks
If Iran has reined in Hezbollah, the United States has done the same to Israel.
The Biden administration has acted consistently on two points during the war in Israel: First, Hamas must be defeated.
Second: A war between Israel and Hezbollah must be avoided.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reportedly conveyed Team Biden's concerns to Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in a candid conversation last November.
US President Joe Biden also called on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to expand the war to Lebanon.
U.S. officials clearly believe that a war between Hezbollah and Israel will quickly escalate into a regional conflict in which the United States could become a combatant against Iran.
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The administration's concerns are legitimate, but the US president's ability to influence the Israelis in dealing with their northern border is dwindling.
The Israeli government has decided to evacuate an estimated 80,000 Israelis from northern cities as a precautionary measure in the event of a major escalation.
From Israel's perspective, this part of the country is uninhabitable and Israeli sovereignty there is now insecure.
This is simply unacceptable for the government – or any Israeli government – and requires a strong response.
Diplomacy between Israel and Hezbollah sluggish – both sides dissatisfied
But with their hands full in Gaza, the Israelis have been reluctant to submit to US and French diplomatic efforts.
But neither Washington nor Paris have yet presented a plan that will satisfy neither the Israelis nor Hezbollah.
The Israelis are demanding that Hezbollah withdraw to the Litani River, 18 miles (about 29 km) from the Israeli border, in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 1701 (2006) - a demand that Hezbollah has met rejects.
Hezbollah, for its part, wants Israel to reduce its forces on the border - something the Israelis will not do, especially after the events of October 7, 2023. Over time, diplomacy has proven fruitless, and if the Israelis do If they achieve victory in the Gaza Strip, they will turn to solving their security problem in the north.
For the Israelis, this is an existential question because, despite the wishes of the White House, war in Lebanon is likely to break out in the spring or summer.
US Congress inhibits Israel: military support is a long time coming
A final obstacle for Israel is the dysfunctionality of the US Congress.
Although this is not generally the case, the nature of the war it is now waging makes Israel highly dependent on the United States.
There is no doubt that Israel has a well-developed defense industry and an advanced military structure, but its war in response to the Hamas attack on October 7 is a major departure from the IDF's standard doctrine of short, devastating wars in enemy territory.
As the conflict in Gaza has dragged on for more than five months, Israelis need to replenish their stockpiles of certain weapons.
To fight Hezbollah, the IDF needs more precision-guided weapons, which would be crucial to neutralizing Hezbollah launch pads and other sensitive locations.
The Israelis cannot acquire these weapons without the additional aid package currently on Capitol Hill.
This means that the major military operations Gallant is planning to drive Hezbollah from the Israeli border cannot take place - yet.
Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer recently admitted this.
Explaining the need for US security assistance, he explained: “Because it is very important as we [also] do our planning.
Remember that we are not dealing with just one front,” he said.
“We are not only dealing with Hamas in the south, but also with Hezbollah in the north.”
At some point, however, Congress will get its act together and pass the funding bill.
Israel remains very popular on Capitol Hill, and vote counters suggest that security assistance to the country should be a legislative measure under all circumstances.
But as with everything happening on Capitol Hill these days, even initiatives and legislation that are broadly popular fall into the maw of polarization, power politics, and general congressional dysfunction.
US aid to Israel and Ukraine are linked - when it comes to aid, the signs point to war
The relatively uncontroversial Israel aid is now linked to the more controversial Ukraine aid, which has to do with the biggest political game in the United States, border security.
That means Israelis will have to wait while elected leaders in Washington sort out the other two questions, which have become increasingly complex in a presidential election year.
But Congress will eventually act, and when it does, the last restraint on the Israelis will fall away.
The IDF's major military operations in the Gaza Strip will probably be over by then, allowing the force to fully concentrate on Hezbollah.
With both Hezbollah and Israel increasingly unable to hold back, all signs point to war.
Hezbollah and Israeli forces' attacks on each other are becoming increasingly bold and penetrating deeper into each other's territory.
Recently, the Israelis attacked the Bekaa Valley after Hezbollah shot down an Israeli drone.
Previously, Hezbollah had sent drones to the Lower Galilee and the Israeli Air Force had struck weapons depots in Sidon, less than 30 miles (about 48 km) from Beirut.
However, they must realize that there is no diplomatic solution to the zero-sum game between Hezbollah and Israel, especially as the Israeli leadership vows to change the rules of the game between Israel and the Axis of Resistance.
Either Nasrallah will order his troops north to the Litani River, or the IDF will push them back.
Hezbollah will resist because that's what it claims to do - and what better way to burnish its battered credibility at home?
It is unlikely that there is any way to stop the war now.
To the author
Steven A. Cook
is a columnist at Foreign Policy and Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and African Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
His latest book, The End of Ambition: America's Past, Present, and Future in the Middle East, will be published in June 2024.
Twitter (X): @stevenacook
We are currently testing machine translations. This article was automatically translated from English into German.
This article was first published in English in the magazine “ForeignPolicy.com” on February 29, 2024 - as part of a cooperation, it is now also available in translation to readers of the IPPEN.MEDIA portals.