As of: March 10, 2024, 8:13 a.m
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Keeping all options open could serve as a deterrent - but it won't help Ukraine.
In order to fend off the Russian advance, Kiev needs help - now.
Surprising statements by Emmanuel Macron: France would also be prepared to send ground troops to Ukraine
Harsh criticism from all sides: NATO allies decided against direct involvement in the Ukraine war
Ukraine needs short-term measures now to repel the Russian invasion
This article is available for the first time in German - it was first published by
Foreign Policy
magazine on March 1, 2024 .
Paris - French President Emmanuel Macron surprised his European counterparts this week by suggesting that some European countries could send troops to Ukraine to prevent Russia from winning its war of aggression there.
If you take Macron's comments, which he made at a newly created EU-Ukraine summit in Paris, at face value, he immediately stands at the top of the spectrum of Western leaders who tend to look forward.
Even US President Joe Biden, who caused a stir with his apparent call for the overthrow of Russian President Vladimir Putin in a speech in Warsaw in March 2022, avoids directly supporting Ukraine with troops.
Since the start of the war, Biden has been careful to rule out the deployment of US troops and to measure US military aid to Ukraine so that it does not appear to provoke a direct confrontation with Russia.
Macron's warning to Putin as a deterrent - empty phrase or well calculated
Maybe Macron means what he says and the rubber of strategic autonomy finally meets the road of European security.
Perhaps France is finally ready to take up the empty mantle of European leadership and do what is necessary to ensure that Russia is stopped before it inflicts a widespread strategic defeat on Europe and endangers its long-term security.
Keeping future options open – and keeping Putin guessing – could be a way to signal to the Kremlin that Europe is taking deterrence seriously.
Indeed, Macron said after the summit that all of his statements about deterring Russia were carefully thought out.
Macron as a lone fighter in Europe: Ground troops proposal draws criticism from NATO and Russia
But Macron may also have had other goals.
He is notorious in Europe for pushing radical proposals as a lone fighter.
In his remarks, he lamented the tendency of some countries to initially reject most proposals to support Ukraine before finally giving in.
This was one of several barely concealed references to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who this week again ruled out supplying Taurus long-range missiles to Ukraine.
Last year's painful debate over Leopard tanks and F-16s was repeated - despite German support for an increase in military aid to Ukraine.
Started the debate about a possible deployment of ground troops to Ukraine: Emmanuel Macron.
© Ludovic Marin/AFP/AP/dpa
If Macron was really serious about the possibility of deploying European troops on the ground, his approach left much to be desired.
For one thing, he would have had to coordinate with at least a few key allies.
Although he managed to grab headlines, he alienated other European leaders: his proposal was shot down not only by the Kremlin, but also by various NATO allies within the first 24 hours.
Ukrainian defense companies could become more important: cooperation possible
If Macron was serious, he could also have been clearer about the scenarios in which European troops could be deployed to Ukraine, and perhaps outlined a concrete French role.
The economic reconstruction of Ukraine – or joint production facilities between Ukrainian and European defense companies – could well require European troops to secure them in the future.
Likewise, the European Union military training mission to Ukraine, currently hosted on EU soil, could be relocated to Ukrainian territory.
However, so far these moves have been largely rejected by European leaders, who need to be persuaded behind the scenes or even forced to act by a country like France that is leading by example.
Public insults and Macron-style self-promotion will be of little help in this regard.
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France only ranks 22nd out of 27 when it comes to support for Ukraine
Maybe Macron had other motives.
In the halls of NATO headquarters in Brussels and in some European capitals, complaints about French inaction have grown louder in recent months.
Indeed, there is a big gap between France's meager support for Ukraine and its ambition to play a leadership role on the continent.
According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy's Ukraine Support Tracker, France ranks 22nd among the 27 EU members in terms of aid commitments to Ukraine in relation to GDP.
While Germany pledged an additional 7.1 billion euros for Ukraine this month, a recent bilateral security agreement between France and Ukraine promises French military aid of only “up to” 3 billion euros.
This puts France on a par with much smaller European countries, such as the Netherlands, with their commitment of more than 2 billion euros.
A more cynical observer might see Macron's comments as an attempt to distract from the fact that his country does not contribute nearly as much as other major European powers.
And this at a time when the situation on the ground in Ukraine has become so desperate and threatening, and despite France being the most capable and best-equipped military power on the continent.
Trump's presidency threatens NATO - Ukraine's chances of becoming a NATO member are poor
A less cynical reading of Macron's comments is that he wanted to prepare Europeans.
Prepare in view of the upcoming US elections and a potential vacuum that could be created within NATO by Donald Trump's presidency.
It could then become necessary to set up our own troops to contain the Russian threat.
This makes sense not only in light of the war within Europe, but also in the context of US politics: NATO's leading power now has a presidential candidate who is calling on Russia to invade European allies and a Congress that is not keeping domestic politics separate from the urgent ones and important national security interests of the USA.
Even if Biden remains in power, Washington's opposition to Ukraine's NATO membership is unlikely to change in the near future.
Regardless of what happens, Europeans will need to think through the security and defense implications of an EU membership offer for Ukraine in a few years.
So perhaps Macron wanted to offer a longer-term perspective.
Storm Shadow/Scalp cruise missile.
The Franco-British alternative to the German Taurus missile.
© IMAGO/Nicolas Economou
Ukraine needs short-term measures to be able to fend off Russia's advance
However, long-term perspectives are not missing from the debate.
At the Munich Security Conference this month there were endless panel discussions focused on European security in five or ten years, but what Europe really needs now are short-term measures that impact Russia's war.
In the short term, despite increasing European arms production, Ukraine has received only a third of the 1 million artillery shells promised to it by the EU.
In fact, it was Paris that initially blocked the procurement of shells from outside the EU to make up the deficit.
This led critics to question whether French industrial policy is more important to Macron than Ukraine's victory or defeat.
It wasn't until this week's summit that he seemed to have changed his mind.
US House of Representatives continues to block aid to Ukraine
If action is not taken quickly, Ukraine will lose the war.
Hardly anyone in Western capitals is worried about the very real possibility that NATO leaders could meet at their July summit in Washington without the US House of Representatives reaching an agreement.
If the U.S. House of Representatives fails to act on the slow-moving relief bill and European powers do no more, Russian troops will advance unstoppably.
Action must be taken now - not in ten years - to prevent the loss of further Ukrainian cities and to show Putin that NATO is capable of acting.
“Nothing that came out of this dinner will help Ukraine,” a frustrated senior U.S. official told us, referring to Macron’s comments.
If France wants to take a leadership role in European security, it should focus less on testing the idea of troops on the ground.
Rather, what is crucial is to work with the existing Ukraine Defense Contact Group to provide more military support to Ukraine, including French weapons and materiel.
Before it is too late.
To the authors
Daniel B. Baer
is senior vice president for policy research at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, former U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe from 2013 to 2017, and author of The Four Tests: What it Will Take to Keep America Strong and good.
Twitter (X): @danbbaer
Sophia Besch
is a fellow in the Europe program of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Twitter (X): @SophiaBesch
We are currently testing machine translations. This article was automatically translated from English into German.
This article was first published in English in the magazine “ForeignPolicy.com” on March 1, 2024 - as part of a cooperation, it is now also available in translation to readers of the IPPEN.MEDIA portals.