As of: March 10, 2024, 4:12 p.m
By: Bettina Menzel
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Utah State Senator Mike Lee at a press conference at the US Capitol in January 2024.
© IMAGO/Tom Williams/Newscom World
Trump has repeatedly expressed criticism of NATO.
An ally now explains the Republicans' red line.
The alliance has to decide: Ukraine or the USA.
Utah – Only those who pay receive US military protection: Former and possibly future US President Donald Trump has repeatedly made his stance on NATO clear.
If a member defaulted, he would personally “encourage Russia to do whatever the hell they want,” the Republican said in February.
Mike Lee - US Senator from Utah and an enthusiastic Trump supporter - specified in an opinion article in
The American Conservative
where the red line lies for the Republicans in NATO.
NATO expansion: Ukraine's long road to the defense alliance
Trump's threat to refuse military assistance to delinquent NATO members caused huge waves.
Not least with the incumbent US President.
“No other president in our history has ever bowed to a Russian dictator,” Joe Biden criticized Trump, calling his comments “stupid,” “shameful” and “dangerous.”
But recently there was also good news about NATO: After a long struggle, Sweden officially joined the transatlantic defense alliance at the beginning of March.
Since the start of the Ukraine war, the alliance has expanded to include two members.
“For God’s sake, that’s stupid, that’s shameful, that’s dangerous, that’s un-American.”
US President Joe Biden on Trump's threat to refuse military assistance to delinquent NATO members
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also sent positive signals to Kiev on the occasion of the second anniversary of the Russian attack: “Ukraine will join NATO,” the NATO chief promised.
The question is not if, but when this will happen, Stoltenberg continued.
There is currently no specific time horizon, but military experts believe that possible accession is a long way off.
On the one hand, Ukraine has to struggle with domestic political problems such as corruption; one of the requirements for accession is a functioning democracy and market economy.
Russia's attack is an even bigger hurdle: unresolved territorial conflicts within its own territory are a no-go for inclusion in the defense alliance.
The West is also doing everything it can to avoid becoming a party to the war - but this would be the case if it joined Ukraine in times of war.
Trump supporters' red line: NATO has to choose between Ukraine and the USA
Stoltenberg's NATO promise to Ukraine is about a long-term perspective.
But MAGA supporters, derived from the Trump slogan “Make America Great Again,” are already warning about the consequences of admission.
US Senator Mike Lee argued in an opinion article that the alliance “neither needs additional members at this point nor should it seek them.” In principle, only those states that have verifiable and credible “hard” membership should be considered for membership anyway “power” and would promote greater sharing of burdens among members.
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If Ukraine is in NATO, the United States should be out, simple as that.
Mike Lee, Republican US Senator and Trump supporter
Ukraine, however, is not such a partner and is “incompatible as a member on all fronts,” Lee wrote in
The American Conservative
.
“An ally that is entirely dependent on others for training, equipment and funding is hardly an ally,” the argument continues.
Russian President Vladimir Putin also warned that “Ukraine could be the matchstick in NATO that ignites World War III.
[...] If Ukraine is in NATO, the United States should be out, simple,” the Republican concluded.
But what would that mean for Europe?
What would a US withdrawal mean for NATO and Europe?
Article 5 of the NATO Treaty does not contain an obligation to intervene militarily.
The vague formulation includes everything “from a telegram of sympathy to a tank division” as support, explained the head of the security policy research group at the Science and Politics Foundation (SWP), Claudia Major, to the
Tagesschau
.
Trump's re-election could pose a threat to the NATO defense alliance and thus also the nuclear and military protective shield for Europe.
The Republican's statements have already weakened NATO because the member states' mutual trust has been shaken, said Major.
That's enough to weaken NATO's deterrent effect.
Trump has actually already done that.
Claudia Major, head of the security policy research group at the Science and Politics Foundation
Europe is obviously not currently capable of defending itself without the USA.
At the beginning of the Ukraine war it was determined that the Europeans could not defend themselves, explained Christian Mölling, defense expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations, in an interview with BR24
.
The problem: The planning assumptions were incorrect and Russia's willingness to take risks was underestimated.
“The Americans provide significant support for the military forces,” said Mölling, citing satellites and reconnaissance data as examples.
If the US were to leave NATO, Europe would have to “fight blind and deaf to a certain extent.”
However, the Europeans apparently still have a little time to prepare for such a scenario.
“The likelihood of war in Europe only increases when Russia is no longer tied down by main fighting operations in Ukraine, i.e. a significant part of the hostilities has stopped,” explained the defense expert.
Military experts then expect a period of six to nine years until Russia has rebuilt its armed forces, Mölling continued.
Time is already running out for Ukraine: the country will lose the war without US aid, according to Washington and Kiev.