As of: March 10, 2024, 4:37 p.m
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Portugal expects a close race between the ruling Socialists led by Pedro Nuno Santos and the conservatives.
© Joao Henriques/AP/dpa
Portugal has long been considered a bulwark against right-wing extremists.
But corruption, housing shortages and other socio-economic problems could finally put an end to this status in the parliamentary elections.
Lisbon - The Socialists (PS), who have been in power for more than eight years, are threatened with defeat in the early parliamentary elections in Portugal.
Around 10.8 million voters are called upon to re-elect the 230 representatives of the “Assembleia da República”.
Almost all polls predicted a strong shift to the right with significant vote gains for the populists from Chega (It's Enough) - as well as a very difficult government formation in the next few weeks.
In the early afternoon, voter turnout was 25.2 percent, almost two points higher than that in the parliamentary elections at the beginning of 2022 at the same time, as the electoral authority CNE in Lisbon reported.
President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa called new elections in November after the Socialist Prime Minister António Costa resigned due to a corruption scandal and remained in office only in an acting capacity.
Forming a government could be difficult
According to the polls, the conservative Democratic Alliance (AD) led by leading candidate Luís Montenegro could narrowly prevail against the Socialists led by Pedro Nuno Santos with 30 to 35 percent of the vote.
However, the two main competitors will miss out by a long shot on the absolute majority of seats in parliament that the Socialists won in 2022.
A “grand coalition” is considered impossible.
The winner of the election will probably have to rely on smaller parties.
In view of the looming difficulties in forming a government, observers have already predicted a new election in the summer.
The main reason: According to the surveys, the right-wing populist party Chega of the former TV sports commentator André Ventura will achieve significant vote gains, improve from a good 7 to 15 to 20 percent and become the “kingmaker” - but neither Montenegro nor Santos want to negotiate with Chega.
In Portugal - similar to the AfD in Germany - there is still a so-called firewall to the right.
At home and abroad, the Socialists' earlier success was celebrated as the “Portuguese miracle”.
After the euro debt crisis, Costa led the former EU problem child very solidly for years.
Spending discipline but also social responsibility characterized his work.
Over the years, the economy has almost always grown above the EU average, and unemployment has been steadily reduced.
Observers see breeding ground for a shift to the right
Several corruption scandals, including at the state airline TAP, put an end to the success story.
At its peak, Costa faced allegations of corruption in lithium and hydrogen projects in November.
According to the current status of the investigation, the 62-year-old was not personally guilty of anything.
The election was also characterized by socio-economic problems such as housing shortages and inflation, which hit the low-wage country particularly hard - and which, according to observers, also provide breeding ground for the shift to the right.
Since the end of the pandemic, Portugal has been overwhelmed by an increasing wave of strikes: doctors, teachers, police officers and many others are protesting ever louder.
dpa