The mantras of the campaigns of Claudia Sheinbaum and Xóchitl Gálvez: “People” and “president” against “fear” and “Government”

Mexico is closer than ever to having its first female president.

The campaigns officially started on March 1, which was the starting signal for the ruling party Claudia Sheinbaum and the opposition Xóchitl Gálvez, the two leaders in the race towards the next elections.

The candidates have given prominence to the fight against insecurity and the continuity of social programs, they have launched specific proposals for International Women's Day and have insisted that it will be a contest between two women, two styles and two national projects.

“There are only two paths to take this June 2: one, that the transformation continues, the other that corruption returns,” said Sheinbaum, at her first rally in the Zócalo of Mexico City.

“This June 2 we are going to decide between two projects.

The Morena candidate already said it, one is for corruption to continue,” said Gálvez in a massive event from Querétaro, “and the other is to live in a Mexico without fear.”

How similar are the statements of both candidates?

Where do they diverge?

What do you give more importance to at the beginning of the campaign?

EL PAÍS put the speeches that Gálvez and Sheinbaum have given, the press conferences they have offered and their publications on social networks under the magnifying glass to detect their concerns, their priorities and their strategies in the final stretch of the contest.

Based on the transcriptions provided by their teams, the analysis condenses nearly 125,000 words said between the two during just the first week of their tours.

Terms that are repeated, but that do not say much by themselves - such as articles, different conjugations of the same verb or most prepositions and pronouns - are excluded to convey their messages.

And the results are presented visually, with a “word cloud” based on the most frequent concepts.

Both candidates share three of their most common words: “Vamos”, “Mujer” and “Mexico”.

“Fear” and “Government” have more weight in the opponent's speech.

“People” and “president”, in that of the standard bearer of Andrés Manuel López Obrador's party.

“The second floor of the Fourth Transformation”

Sheinbaum chose the most emblematic square of the capital, which he governed for five years, to start his campaign and present his government project, with the promise of continuing what López Obrador started and, at the same time, putting his own stamp on his presidency.

The former head of Government of Mexico City has said “Let's go” more than 900 times in these seven days, the trigger for presenting her proposals.

“We are going to continue with the policy of austerity,” she said in Ciudad Juárez, last Saturday.

“We are going to work,” “we are going to promote,” “we are going to convert,” she repeated during that rally.

It has also been a call to action for her followers.

“

We are going

to arrive on June 2, because

we are going

to win the election and

we are going

to preserve the president's legacy,” she commented on that occasion.

Both candidates share three of their most common words: “Vamos”, “Mujer” and “Mexico”.

“President” was a term repeated by Sheinbaum some 284 times in this first week, at an average rate of 40 times a day, not counting his last rally in Teoloyucan (State of Mexico), which did not enter the analysis.

The candidate used the surname Obrador another 74 times, according to her transcripts, but the word “president” appears only 27 times.

“Woman”, however, has more weight in the messages of the Morena candidate, with at least 377 repetitions.

“Transformation has a

woman

's face ,” she stated in Querétaro.

“Long live

women

!” was her closing speech at that event, where she presented proposals on care, safety and health regarding March 8, to which Gálvez also gave importance.

The “hurrays” are usually Sheinbaum's usual farewell: with a speech for the plaza she visits, another for the Fourth Transformation, another for the president and several more for Mexico.

“I am clear that it is not me who arrives, we all arrive,” she said in the Zócalo, “it will also be up to me to fight for the

women

of Mexico.”

Sheinbaum often interacts with his supporters to incorporate them into his speeches.

“For the good of all…” said the candidate in Guadalajara last Sunday so that the public responded with the phrase popularized by López Obrador: “The poor first.”

“Transformation” appears in her messages more than 200 times, but “[second] floor” only 20. “Continuity with change” was the slogan that Morena launched since she inaugurated the succession game in the middle of last year.

“Continuity” appears 49 times in their transcripts;

“consolidate”, 98;

“continue”, 20;

“follow”, 119;

“continue”, 11;

“continues”, 8, and “history” 44 times.

“Let's continue making history” is the name of her coalition and one of her most used slogans.

“People,” another key concept in the imagination of the president and his party, has 265 repetitions.

The candidate has a clear strategy of capitalizing on the president's influence and managing the advantage that the polls give her.

She did not mention Gálvez or Jorge Álvarez Máynez, her rivals, on any occasion.

The allusions are usually indirect or about her proposals: “It is not about building mega prisons for young people,” she said at a press conference in Mexquitic de Carmona (San Luis Potosí).

“The opposition is like a costume store, because when it suits them they want social programs,” she added at that conference.

The common suspects of Lopez Obradorism are mentioned: Felipe Calderón (27 times), Vicente Fox (11) and Genaro García Luna (6).

Opposition (23 times), Neoliberal (14), neoliberalism (9) and PRIAN (10 times) are other common words.

The bet is to turn the vote into a plebiscite on the Fourth Transformation.

Claudia Sheinbaum greets her supporters during a public event, in León, Guanajuato, on March 5 Luis Ramírez (EFE)

Sheinbaum has decided to present a broad government program and try to cover several topics.

He has given importance to education (211 times), health (206) and rights (175).

He has spoken about security on 151 occasions, but avoids referring to it in a negative sense.

For example, she has only used “insecurity” 21 times.

She prefers to say “sure” (15 times) or “secure” (14), rather than “unsafe” (7).

As an example, in her last pre-campaign speech on January 18, the candidate said “security” six times, but “insecurity” only once.

“Violence” did not appear in that message, but she has repeated that word 60 times during the campaign.

Furthermore, it is not so common for her to use “economy” (18 times) or “economic” (19), but “salary” (121) or “social programs”, a formula that appears more than thirty times.

“We are going to guarantee the social programs that President López Obrador launched,” she said this week.

“For a Mexico without fear”

Xóchitl Gálvez started his tours in Fresnillo (Zacatecas), the city with the greatest fear of crime in the country, in a rally with a strong symbolic load.

He also passed through Irapuato (Guanajuato) and Ecatepec (State of Mexico), two hotspots of violence in the country, and promoted the campaign slogan “For a Mexico without fear.”

For example, “fear” appeared at least 173 times in his speeches, “security” on 128 occasions, and delinquent on more than a hundred occasions.

“People are

afraid

because this six-year term is already the most violent in history,” he stated in his first act.

“Morena is more narco, more death, more

fear

,” he added.

The opposition candidate also uses that word as a vehicle to talk about broader issues.

She envisions a country “without

fear

of undertaking, without

fear

of getting ahead, without

fear

of success,” she said in Fresnillo.

She is also a tool to make evident the contrast with Sheinbaum and to present herself as the only candidate who can compete against the official machinery.

“A president without fear, that's what I'm going to be,” she said in Querétaro last weekend.

She already gave hints of the strategy in her pre-campaign closing at the Arena Ciudad de México, on January 14, where she mentioned “fear” eight times.

But now she has more weight.

In Fresnillo, for example, she appeared 13 times and another 20 in Aguascalientes, where she gave her first press conference, although in Irapuato, only three.

The words “Fear” and “Government” have more weight in Xóchitl Galvéz's speech.

“Vamos” (490 times), “Mujer” (243) and “México” (232) are also key pieces of his message.

“Mexicans expect from me a brave

woman

, forward-thinking, who really has the ability and leadership to lead this country to a different destiny,” she said at a press conference in the capital.

Gálvez has sought to leave behind the corseted image that was attributed to him in the pre-campaign and has shown himself to be the politician who does not speak like other politicians.

“The heat is very badass, but it is more badass to put up with Morena for another six years,” he joked in Villahermosa (Tabasco).

Gálvez, Sheinbaum's closest pursuer, is betting on a contrast campaign.

She has made more allusions to Morena (51 times) than her rival (39).

She referred to “Claudia” 30 times, four times a day at her rallies and conferences, she said “Sheinbaum” 34 times and “give up” five more times.

“Claudia is giving up and Mexico does not want to give up,” she said in Zacatecas.

Despite everything, “president” is a much more common term in her speeches, whether to talk about López Obrador or his opponent.

“The

president

's

corcholata

already told us that he is betting on more militarization, more simulation, more inaction and more hopelessness,” she said.

Gálvez's analysis returns “president” 58 times, more than double that of Sheinbaum.

“Government,” which she has repeated 156 times, has several uses.

It serves to criticize the current Administration - "The Government has abandoned the States" - to talk about what will be if it comes to power - "in my Government there will be no thieves, no thugs

or

assholes" - and to distinguish oneself of his rivals: “In Yucatán the good governments of the PRI and the PAN will continue.”

PAN appears 21 times, as does PRD, while PRI appears in 19 repetitions.

The opposition candidate prefers to speak to the “people” (88 times) and to the “citizens” (32) than to the “people” (25).

“Family” appears 52 times.

Gálvez has appealed to speak from her own experience and to run a campaign more focused on making herself known as a candidate.

She has said “I” 358 times, triple that of Sheinbaum (104).

“I come from below”, “I had to sell gelatin as a child”, “I, as president, am going to be responsible for your safety” or “I know what it is like to be in your shoes” are some examples.

Xóchitl Gálvez, in a press conference titled "For a Mexico without Fear", a phrase that is a central axis of his campaign, on March 7 in Mexico City.

Moisés Pablo Nava

Gálvez has prioritized talking about “youth” (140 times), the “police” (119), “water” (74), “health” (60) and social programs, a similar number of times as Sheinbaum.

He has not commented much on “economics,” a term he has only mentioned five times, although the number goes up if you add “economic” (16) and “economic” (9).

“Money” is more recurrent (88 times), as well as “Work” (42), “employment” (27) and “salary” (22).

His messages at his rallies are usually more concise and his press conferences longer than Sheinbaum's.

In addition to the “blood pact” that he sealed to continue with social programs, Gálvez has made multiple references to López Obrador's flagship projects.

Felipe Ángeles International Airport appears 10 times in his statements;

the Dos Bocas refinery on 20 occasions;

the Mayan Train on 13 occasions, and the National Guard, about 50. Like Sheinbaum, he talks more about Calderón (19 times) than about Fox (7).

He barely mentions Enrique Peña Nieto (3 times), who does not appear in the Morena standard bearer's messages.

In her public interventions, the opponent appeals more to “truth” (67 repetitions), to “life” (49), to “rights” (34) and to a lesser extent, to “freedom” (16 ).

The network campaign

The candidates make slight adjustments on social networks, trying to appear close to voters and with shorter and more direct messages.

Until this Friday afternoon, for example, Sheinbaum did not mention López Obrador in any of his publications nor the "president", although he did highlight the "superweight" and the fall in inflation in February.

The Morena candidate prefers to talk about women, the people and transformation.

The slogan #Let's keep making history is a common mention that, however, fails to make it into its five most used terms.

Gálvez, on the other hand, is committed to positioning the

hashtag

#MXsinMiedo, by far what he tweets the most, with 69 mentions.

“Fear” appears separately among his most common words, but “heart” ―for the name of his coalition, Fuerza y ​​Corazón por México― and “hugs” ―to criticize López Obrador's security policy also sneak into the analysis. and to appreciate the expressions of affection―, although they are not so common.

The opposition candidate also alludes to Sheinbaum's account seven times and a couple more with the hashtag #Claudiamiente, capitalizing on lapses, launching challenges and questioning her rival.

The big absentees from Gálvez's networks are the leaders of the parties that promote it: the PAN member Marko Cortés, the PRI member Alejandro

Alito

Moreno and the PRD member Jesús Zambrano.

Sheinbaum, for his part, practically does not talk about his allies in the Green Party and the Labor Party.

Yes, she does it from the candidates who have accompanied her, such as Alma Alcaraz in Guanajuato or Claudia Delgadillo in Jalisco.

Clara Brugada, candidate for the Head of Government, only appears on one occasion.

Other figures who appear in her publications are former Minister Arturo Zaldívar, former Governor Javier Corral, Omar García Harfuch and Andrea Chávez, candidates for the Senate.

Gálvez has mentioned Santiago Taboada, candidate in the capital;

to the candidate in Guanajuato, Libia García and the Yucatecan Renán Barrera to promote their candidacies in the nine States that elect state governments.

The campaign continues with around 80 more days of tours, statements and frictions until the election at the polls next June.

This week, Gálvez spoke of “winning” 71 times and Sheinbaum, 58.

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