Javier Milei has available at this juncture
all the capital that his policy allows
.
He achieves, without measuring the consequences, a fiscal balance.
Only known essence of his economic program.
He exhibits a drop in inflation, even at stratospheric values.
His attack against “the caste” receives the invaluable collaboration of the Kirchnerist heritage.
Every day incredible aberrations are revealed in the administration of the State
.
The opposition, even those that declare themselves collaborationists, maintain their confusion in the rear.
Any passing observer would think that the President has before him an almost ideal panorama to continue facing the crisis.
This may be an excess of optimism on the eve of a second quarter that the ruling party itself foresees as turbulent
.
Evidence of the collapse of economic activity is beginning to accumulate.
Industrial production fell 12.4% year-on-year in January and 1.3% compared to December.
Numbers provided by Indec.
The steel company Acindar announced that it is closing its plants until mid-April.
The Argentine Industrial Union (UIA) provided another diagnosis:
the lowest level of sales is accompanied by a fall and deterioration in employment.
To navigate that desert, Milei may not be able to use the political tools he manipulates now.
It will require anchoring in the political and institutional system
that never completely whitens his true thinking.
Freedom Advances has very little calm.
The intrigues among its legislators were calmed the previous week.
Always some disruptive novelty sets off alarms.
Ramiro Marra, a libertarian by origin, was displaced from the leadership of the block of the Buenos Aires Legislature.
He had been having friction with Karina Milei, The Boss, for a long time.
The surprise would be another: his place will be taken by María del Pilar Ramírez.
A legislator with a long and winding journey.
Before becoming a libertarian she worked with the Buenos Aires Kirchnerista, María Laura Leguizamón, and with Senator Mariano Recalde at Aerolíneas Argentinas.
These difficulties and the proximity of unpleasant times led the President to reach out to the governors.
An indirect path to Congress where the Omnibus Law was shipwrecked and the Decree of Necessity and Urgency (DNU) is being subjected to strong opposition pressure.
The parties once again agreed on the search for bases to guarantee governability.
But among several, there is a kernel of doubt that cannot be dispelled.
If the conversations with Guillermo Francos, the Minister of the Interior, and Nicolás Posse, the Chief of Staff, would be endorsed in the end by Milei.
Also by Karina
.
Another key man was also missing from the meeting: Luis Caputo, the Minister of Economy, owner of the money.
Previous experiences support that skepticism.
This is how the leaders of the summit meeting left.
The approval of the Omnibus Law in exchange for fiscal relief for the provinces would be feasible because
the initial mega project would suffer jibarization.
The problem would remain, however, obtaining funds to compensate governors who suffered cuts.
There were leaders who asked that the National Treasury Advances (ATN) be shared
.
Francos insisted on the reinstatement of the Income Tax, fourth category, which was repealed by Sergio Massa with the consent of the leaders (also Milei himself) in the electoral campaign.
There are several governors who do not agree, starting with Martín Llaryora, from Córdoba.
Many deputies, including collaborationists, also raise objections that did not appear in January.
An indicator from the Ministry of Labor indicates that
in the first two months of 2024 the deterioration in salaries reached 20%
.
“How are we going to do under these conditions to cut those salaries without insults raining down?” asked a deputy from We Make the Federal Coalition.
He preferred not to say anything about an issue that, in the midst of the proclaimed austerity, makes noise.
The 30% increase provided in the Congressional allowances.
A decision promoted by Martín Menem in the Deputies and Victoria Villarruel in the Senate.
Was Milei unaware or did she let her anger at the bad repercussions transcend?
Were you also unaware of the validity of a decree K that automatically triggers the salaries of the Executive Branch?
That package discussed at the summit, with other additions, would be the pass for the signing of the May Pact that Milei called for in his opening speech to the ordinary sessions of Congress.
There will not be one thing without the other.
“Conditioning
,” some governors complain.
It would be a step of certainty for the progress of the Government.
But, beyond the intense conversations between parties, there are things that are not fully resolved.
Are the 10 foundational points stated by the President to be signed as a closed book?
Or to open another debate?
“The caste” continues to be unclear if the Government's proposal consists of establishing governability.
Or entertainment to overcome the next economic-social ordeal that is considered extremely difficult
.
The hesitation picks up some fundamentals.
The President does not hide insults against governors, deputies and senators.
He claims that he could continue with his program without them.
There is another underlying point that remains enigmatic:
whether the change in the economic system that Milei proposes would be made within the democratic and republican system that prevails in Argentina.
The President never took it upon himself to talk about the institutional framework.
Of respect, in that sense, for the order established since 1983.
His fixations for now consist of fiscal balance and the fight against inflation.
The decoding of his gestures is also contradictory.
Example: in recent weeks he received the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, at the Casa Rosada.
Unmistakable sign for Democrat Joe Biden.
Two days later he traveled to Maryland to participate in the Republican convention led by Donald Trump.
He hugged him profusely and
wished him success in the November elections.
This new political process that has been going on for three months also seems to have been created, capriciously, by Milei's personality.
In recent days she visited the Expoagro exhibition in San Nicolás, where Mauricio Macri also passed by with an easy request: that withholdings on the countryside be eliminated.
The President preferred not to make any definition about a sector whose decline in the industrial sector (agricultural machinery) marked 28%.
His talk was about inflation, “caste” and the importance that the alleged investments promised by Manchester City, of the Premier League, in institutions in our country would have for football.
Milei also made, accompanied by his sister Karina, a visit to the Cardenal Copello School, where both were educated.
Two things happened there.
A student who was to the left of him fainted without the president flinching.
He didn't even interrupt the speech.
Karina had, however, a sensitive reaction.
The president developed a message with strong political content, in which “caste” was the least important thing.
He questioned the left, the “lefties,” communism and abortion.
Replica of a custom, from another ideological pole, with which the militancy of La Cámpora ended up annoying a majority of society.
Will he understand in this way the possibility of building a better democracy?
Will you take into account the concept of diversity?
Would the cultural battle that libertarians often allude to justify everything?
Milei assumes that the public opinion that voted for him would have given him a blank check to say whatever he wants
, without anyone being too shocked.
The decline of the leadership in the opposition and his diaspora help him.
In the midst of layoffs at the state-owned AySA, its former head, Malena Galmarini, wife of Sergio Massa, triggered a novelty.
After making a self-criticism because the frustration of the previous government would have facilitated the return of “
fascism
”, She announced that
the Renovador Front was kicked out of the PJ.
Last piece of what was once known as Union for the Homeland.
The revelation appears surrounded by questions.
Among several reasons
because Massa, as far as is known, maintains dialogues with Cristina Fernández.
Perhaps the secret lies in the crisis that the discovery of alleged negotiations that Alberto Fernández had committed with the contracting of insurance in countless State organizations produced in the leadership of the PJ.
The mud would splash on the former Minister of Economy and former candidate.
Unforgivable for Malena, who has always felt like an emblem of a pristine family.
The affair led to a hard conversation between Alberto and Massa, intoxicated with reproaches.
Among several, the reasons why the former president would have allowed the initial public intervention in the Gregorio Dalbón conflict.
Lawyer, according to the renewal leader, of very low public standing.
The scandal led to another sequel: Alberto requested leave as head of the PJ.
Temporarily the future reorganization was left in the hands of Gildo Insfrán from Formosa.
A real “castazo”.
Reason for celebration for Milei.
The situation would not be much more auspicious in the PRO.
The President decided to strengthen his relationship with Cristian Ritondo, head of the Deputies block.
To the obvious detriment of Macri
, who insists on integration with the libertarians, but throws darts.
The former president groups wills to regain ownership of the party.
There are leaders who do not agree.
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta is not the only one.
Unit photos are distributed.
Patricia Bullrich expressed her desire to be able to seal a hug with Macri.
Excessive simulation.