Europe consolidates its commitment to rearmament.
European arms imports have doubled, with a growth of 94%, in the last five years and increased by 21% between 2022 and 2023, while in the rest of the world's regions, purchases sank.
Russia's war in Ukraine has tested European security and the old continent, in addition to reinforcing its defense with the purchase of weapons, wants to boost its industry to compensate for its dependence on the United States with greater local production.
On a global scale, the United States remains the main exporting power, while Russia falls behind France and loses more than half of its presence in the international arms trade.
The data published this Monday by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri) confirm that, despite the fact that the volume of global arms sales stagnated between 2019 and 2023 (3.3% less than in the five years above), Europe advanced its rearmament campaign at an accelerated pace.
“Europe's demand for weapons has increased since 2014 [the year of the Russian invasion of Crimea and part of eastern Ukraine], but the sharp rise in recent years is explained because much of the weapons purchased have been donated to Ukraine and the “Countries want to continue to be protected militarily,” says Pieter Wezeman, co-author of the report and researcher at Sipri.
Europe's main supplier continues to be the United States, with 55% of total imports in the last five years.
Wezeman explains that the United States has a significant advantage in military technology, especially when it comes to fighter aircraft.
Eight of the 10 European countries that have obtained aircraft in the last five years opted for the US-produced F-16 and F-35, according to the report.
“Buying weapons from the United States is, of course, part of maintaining and even improving relations with that country,” adds the expert.
One of the objectives that the European Commission has set, given the fear of the Russian threat, is to strengthen the European defense industry with more arsenal distributed among all member states.
Specifically, it seeks to urgently boost local production so that by 2030, 50% of military acquisitions occur within the community bloc, the high representative for EU Foreign and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, announced last week.
The paradigm shift will also involve leaving behind decades of dependence on the North American partner, even more so given the possibility that Republican Donald Trump – who questioned NATO's founding defense base – returns to the White House.
For Wezeman, this goal, although not impossible, is very far from becoming a reality.
“Many orders have already been placed for weapons that will continue to arrive over the next few years.
Furthermore, although the European defense industry is very complete, it does not have the capacity to produce at a sufficient rate to meet its own demand,” he points out.
Ukraine is, by far, the European country in which imports have grown the most in the last five years: 6,633% more than in the previous period.
In addition, it has had deliveries, many as military aid, from at least 30 allied countries that have supported Kiev in the face of the large-scale Russian invasion, launched in February 2022. Among the weapons supplied during the last year, the delivery stands out of 27 combat aircraft by Poland and Slovakia or long-range missiles by France and the United Kingdom.
In addition to these deliveries to the Ukrainian army, European countries are also arming themselves to defend themselves against a hypothetical escalation.
Last year alone, Poland – which shares a long border with Ukraine – ordered 12 air defense systems from the US, while Germany bought one – “especially valuable” – from Israel.
Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Finland did the same with German, Israeli and Norwegian defense mechanisms.
France overtakes Russia
Russian exports fell by 53% in the last five years, deepening the gap with the United States in global arms influence.
While Washington exported weapons to 107 countries on all continents, Russia did so only to 41. The decline is even more evident since the invasion of Ukraine: in 2019, 31 countries received Russian weapons;
in 2022, only 14, and in 2023, the number fell to 12. Europe's sanctions on Moscow are not the only reason for this trend.
“We see cases like China, Russia's historic buyer, which is developing its own industry that is sufficiently satisfactory for its technological needs,” argues Wezeman.
The case of India is similar, although with the addition that the United States can exert some pressure with the threat of sanctions.
The same goes for Egypt and Indonesia.
The weakening of Russia's trade allowed France to take second place in the exporter classification by just a few tenths.
French arms sales abroad increased by 47% in just five years.
Of the 64 recipient countries, the main ones, however, are not European countries.
India, Qatar and Egypt receive just over 50% of the total.
Greece is the largest European buyer from France, which in that period purchased 17 Rafale combat aircraft, the main French military export product.
Last year alone, 193 orders were placed for this aircraft, although most are destined for Asian countries (Indonesia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates) or African countries (Egypt).
Unlike Europe, the rest of the world has reduced the amount of weapons it imports.
In Asia and Oceania, the figure fell 12%, dragged down by China.
Despite this, it remains the market with the largest volume of imports with giants such as India, Pakistan, Japan and Australia.
The decline is similar in the Middle East, where the United States remains the main exporter due to purchases from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Israel.
“Many countries have reached their ceiling and that is why they matter less.
Others have improved their production capacity,” clarifies Wezeman.
A drop was also recorded in America and Africa, of 7.2 and 52%, respectively.
The calculation system used by Sipri does not refer to real purchase and sale prices, but is based on the production costs of each artifact.
The report does not reflect, however, a great change in Israel's imports in the last five years, only 5.1% more, despite the offensive launched since October on Gaza in response to the attacks of Hamas.
“The fact that Israel is able to mount a military operation of such scale in Gaza is based on the fact that it has been receiving substantial quantities of weaponry from the United States for many decades.
The weapons that are being used today [on the Strip] were supplied in previous years,” summarizes Wezeman.
Even so, Sipri did record that at the end of 2023, the United States “quickly delivered” thousands of guided bombs to Israel.
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