Presidential elections in Venezuela: less uncertainty, more tension

Of the 27 proposals it had, the Madurismo chose that the presidential elections in Venezuela be held on July 28, the date of birth of the founding leader of the political movement, Hugo Chávez, who died in 2013. Having a date somewhat reduces the uncertainty and returns more What is going to happen with the opposition candidate María Corina Machado, who is disqualified from this process, is relevant.

However, one of the greatest challenges is the path of the Venezuelan opposition to turn into reality what the polls reflect: a great need for change expressed by all sectors, which reminds us of the climate that brought Chávez to the presidency in 1998. .

Since Machado was chosen as a candidate for the Unitary Platform, several factors have placed responsibility for what could happen in Venezuela on her.

Leaders of different groups asked the woman, who surpasses the ruling party's candidate, Nicolás Maduro, by more than 30 percentage points, to speak out for a substitute candidacy.

It was a false dilemma, or a reversal of priorities.

That time would also have been useful to use in offering options to win the election and proposing a strategy that could achieve access to power.

It is a route that should include different factors of Venezuelan society, including the Madurista leadership, the civil society sectors, the Armed Forces and of course the international community - which should not be limited only to government representatives, but also to their civil society groups.

The schedule outlined by the National Electoral Council establishes that the registration of candidates must be carried out between March 21 and 25.

This shortens the period to achieve a candidacy that generates unity among opposition voters and that, of course, has the capacity to make a transition credible and viable.

One of the narratives that has prevailed is that if it loses the election, the Maduro Government would not be willing to hand over power.

As various opinion studies show, the favor of the majority does not accompany them.

A recent survey by the firm Datincorp investigated the emotions aroused by the main candidates and found that the Venezuelan president not only has a negative evaluation of management, but that he only arouses negative emotions such as anger and sadness.

In contrast, 40% say that Machado makes them happy.

That feeling gallops towards hope.

You don't have to be a genius in political communication to know that a profile with as much rejection as Maduro's would not take flight in any democracy.

Nor is the politician a guarantee of governability in a third term.

However, that matters little to the current government leadership, which has certainly found itself in complicated circumstances and has managed to overcome them.

Machado, in addition to leading opinion polls by far and with the political and social climate of the country, would have the first chance to win an election if he had the possibility of registering his candidacy.

But it's not like that.

It would not be easy for anyone from the opposition to govern in Venezuela either.

It also seems clear that although the costs of leaving the Maduro Government seem high, its permanence for all Venezuelans and the countries of the region is even higher.

Venezuela continues to experience a complex humanitarian emergency in an authoritarian context and profound inequality.

A survey released by Bloomberg News found that 65% of Venezuelan migrants in the United States would return to the country if there is a political change.

An economic improvement would not be enough, according to the report.

For members of the Ideas for Democracy alliance, the announcement of the electoral schedule by the CNE finally “marked the field on which the expected day of power games will take place in Venezuela.”

“This clears the first veil of uncertainty in the electoral context and shows that, from the ruling party, all resources will continue to be used to impose a process that leads to it remaining in power.

Its main weakness is that it does not have an electoral base that can make it win an electoral process, with democratic guarantees, so its greatest bet will be focused on a dynamic of social coercion and repression,” comments Deborah Van Berkel.

For her part, Beatriz Borges considers that in the authoritarian context faced in Venezuela, “the definition of a date for the presidential elections without fully respecting the Barbados agreements reflects the expectations we have of a government whose main objective is to remain in the can".

“However, the certainty of this date also emerges as an opportunity.

A crucial lesson learned over the years in our democratic struggle is that attacks on institutions and suffrage as a tool of change should not discourage us from continuing with our citizen and democratic struggle.

Now, more than ever, we must commit to organization and participation, without ceasing to demand our guarantees and rights until the last moment to denounce these arbitrariness,” she continues.

To win elections, Maduro uses his well-known toolbox: resort to fraudulent actions, increase repression (four members of Machado's campaign team are already in prison) and play with all the gaps in the opposition.

On this occasion he is also going to wield what he considers his silver bullet: the connection that may still exist between Chávez and his followers who declare themselves opposed to Maduro, but who still share love for the deceased president.

However, this bet is risky.

Although the Chavista voter is considered disciplined, Maduro has spent the last eight years trying to leave his own mark and erase Chávez from the collective imagination.

In fact, he eliminated the color red from his public communications and even “Chávez's eyes,” an iconography that seemed to watch over everyone from different fences.

For this reason, of the letters to which he has appealed the most is the use of terror and selling the idea that he cannot be removed from power by means of a vote.

So that the opposition voter is inhibited from participating, some individuals play at having small quotas and sow conformism in any minimal concession they make.

It is common: they break the country's legs, then they give it crutches and for that we have to thank them.

All of this under the gaze of the international community that prefers elections in Venezuela without electoral integrity to no elections;

the 2018 scenario is repeated or progress is made towards a Nicaragua scenario, as argued by some who lobby in favor of the Maduro Government.

Faced with this general panorama, perhaps it is worth it for Democrats to focus on what they have: support for change that exceeds 80%;

an awakening of hope;

an opportunity to advance along the electoral route and make substantial improvements in what we do not have: a consensual strategy.

The challenges may seem overwhelming, but they were expected.

Perhaps the most immediate is the definition of the opposition candidacy, says Felix Seijas, of the polling firm Delphos.

That mystery still cannot be resolved because there are continuous negotiations behind the scenes.

However, it is foreseeable that Machado will be prevented from participating.

In the event that your application becomes impossible, the ideal is for the parties grouped in the Unitary Platform to look towards the different candidates who participated in the internal primaries and who have aligned themselves, close to Machado.

Whatever the option, it must have her support.

But the opposition candidacy is just one of the challenges.

Anyone who picks up the baton runs the risk of disqualification.

Each phase of this electoral cycle is like a video game where each level becomes more complicated.

However, I am one of those who believe that the window of opportunity for peaceful change in Venezuela remains open.

In this sense, it seems that the opposition leaders and those of Madurismo still have much to agree on.

One of the points that must be discussed is what this transition of power would be like.

It is useless for madurismo not to consider it as a scenario.

Although his bet is to bring down Machado and thus the opposition, to silence the demand for change he will have to resort to other tactics.

Chavismo knows that Maduro is not Chávez and that his performance has erased the legacy that the president left them.

If he stays in power through fraud, Maudro would repeat a vicious circle from which he has wanted to get out: governing without global recognition.

Furthermore, his relationship with the United States may change again.

For its part, it is up to the Venezuelan opposition, at least the one that has options to move voters, to continue working on the electoral structure and understand the message that the electorate sent them in the October 22 primaries.

It would be good for leaders of different tendencies to review their misogynistic biases.

In this, several of those who want to be Machado's replacements agree with the Maduro leadership.

Another fundamental factor is the civil society organizations that ensure different rights, including access to voting for Venezuelans abroad.

In Colombia, Spain, Brazil and Mexico, where there are active Venezuelan embassies and consulates, nothing should prevent the updating of the Electoral Registry.

Representatives of different countries may need to continue promoting dialogue at different levels.

It would be prudent for some who have bought the thesis that madurismo is immovable, to review what the permanence in power of a Government that does not tremble to persecute and torture those it perceives as critics and opponents implies.

Venezuela and Venezuelans deserve to recover democracy.

This will not only be of internal benefit, but will contribute to the stability of the region.

If the cost of Maduro's departure is high, the more we all pay for his stay.

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