Retired Japanese admiral Tomohisa Takei (Nagano, 1957) is an expert in geopolitics, specialized in East Asia and the tension exhibited in its waters.
“In East Asia there are four hot spots for global security: the Taiwan Strait;
the Korean Peninsula;
and the South and East China Seas.
In all of them, Beijing is a direct or indirect party [in reference to North Korea],” he explains at the Japanese embassy in Spain, during a visit he made to Madrid at the end of November.
“There is concern that tension is increasing in the four areas,” points out the expert, who is part of the renowned
think tank
JIIA (Japanese Institute of International Affairs).
Between 2014 and 2016, Takei served as head of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF), which has 50,000 troops, more than 250 vessels and 350 aircraft, with which they patrol Japanese territorial waters. .
Ask.
Does China invade Japanese territorial waters?
Answer.
Since Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan [in August 2022, when the US politician was still leader of the House of Representatives], China has tripled its quasi-military activity around the Senkaku Islands, crossing into Japanese waters.
Historically, they have been Japanese territory.
In 1969, an interesting source of oil resources was identified in the seabed on which [the islands] stand.
Since then, the first time in 1971, China has claimed them.
In 2013, the Communist Party included them among its priority interests.
This area is of particular concern to Tokyo.
The Chinese coast guard travels through those waters and crosses the
contiguous area
almost daily;
more than 300 days a year.
Q.
Do you think China will make an offensive move?
A.
As [Prime Minister] Kishida said: “Today is Ukraine;
Tomorrow, it will be Asia.”
In general, analogies have been seen between China and Russia [and also between Ukraine with respect to Taiwan].
After the war in Ukraine - to which Tokyo continues to provide financing and support -;
The Government of Japan showed its determination to drastically strengthen its defensive capacity and increase the budget.
The objective is for the investment to represent 2% of GDP [with a deadline until 2027].
More than 70% of the Japanese support this defensive reinforcement;
The war in Ukraine has radically changed Japanese public opinion regarding security.
Xi Jinping had given the order to be ready to invade Taiwan in 2027. At the same time, the consequences of the conflict in Ukraine - and the complications that Putin has had - as well as the escalation between Israel and Hamas, have been able to exert a deterrent effect. in Beijing.
Q.
How would you describe the traditionally turbulent relations between Tokyo and Seoul?
A.
The political, economic and military exchange between both countries is active, as are diplomatic relations.
The number of Korean visitors to Japan is growing;
with more than 5.5 million between January and October 2023, a historical record.
Also, young people in Japan like South Korea, and vice versa.
Despite this, the division is worrying before the South Korean [legislative] elections next spring;
The polarization that the country shows can be used to try to fragment the alliance between Japan, South Korea, and the United States.
There is fear of foreign interference;
just like in the Taiwan elections.
[The elections were held in January and the Taiwanese revalidated the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), further removed from China than the Kuomintang, in power].
Chinese influence is very worrying in Taipei.
Taiwan is a symbol for the Communist Party of China, as is the economy, another of the ruling party's mantras.
Now that Beijing cannot display economic muscle;
the chances of invasion have increased.
“In East Asia there are four hot spots for global security: the Taiwan Strait;
the Korean Peninsula;
and the South and East China Seas," explains Tomohisa Takei. Samuel Sánchez
Q.
What do you expect from the closed meeting this year between the leaders of Japan, South Korea and China, which will be the first since 2019?
A.
I don't think anything will change: the tension areas mentioned are not going to disappear.
The event seeks to maintain a certain economic harmony: China is the main trading partner of both Japan and South Korea.
However, at a strategic level... Japan considers that the tension in the Taiwan Strait, as well as in the East China Sea, far from decreasing, will increase;
Hence, it is strengthening its defenses by 2027. That year, China will have several hundred nuclear warheads;
which will be more than a thousand in 2035, potentially surpassing the United States in nuclear power.
This creates a paradox: the possibility of “mutual destruction” makes direct confrontation unlikely;
However, powers can easily clash over a neighboring issue - such as Taiwan or the Senkaku - and an escalation begins.
Q.
What role does Pyongyang play?
A.
North Korea and Japan do not have diplomatic relations.
Tokyo refuses to make concessions to the North Korean regime, although it leaves dialogue open, since there are issues that must be resolved between both countries: nuclear development, ballistic missiles.
The Government [of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio] Kishida has condemned these North Korean tests, a threat that affects Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, but also the United States.
Q.
Why?
A.
One of the concerns that arose after the war in Ukraine is the rapprochement between Russia and North Korea.
Moscow exhibits a critical need for weapons, especially ammunition;
while North Korea is interested in trade and technological innovations, such as that necessary for the development of satellites.
Precisely, this material necessary for the launch of satellites is similar to that required for the development of ICBMs [intercontinental ballistic missiles, for its acronym in English].
With Russia's help, North Korea can accelerate its nuclear capability;
The recent meetings between Putin and Kim Jong-un demonstrate mutual interest.
There are forces that seek to decouple the United States from East Asia.
Q.
Is an alliance being consolidated between China, Russia, Iran and North Korea?
A.
Although all of them are autocratic countries, I consider that they have different interests.
I can't imagine the four of them working together against the West, although they may come closer at specific times or share strategies.
Q.
How does the conflict in the Middle East look from the Japanese perspective?
A.
Japan sees stability as key.
The Japanese Government has consistently and strongly condemned Hamas' indiscriminate terrorism.
At the same time, when Israel intensified its retaliation, Tokyo distanced itself from the G-7 statement that supported its offensive.
Japan faces the conflict in the Middle East from a neutral point of view and advocating dialogue.
We worry that this clash will become divisive: that the global South will turn against the West for its support of Israel.
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