President Joe Biden and his likely Republican rival, Donald Trump, are on track to win enough delegates this week to become
their parties'
presumptive nominees , beginning
a tough eight-month campaign for the White House.
Tuesday's elections
in four states
are likely to give Biden and Trump the delegates they need to clinch the nominations.
Their records are hardly in doubt after their defining performances in last week's Super Tuesday contests forced the last major primary challengers to
drop out of the race.
But for many voters who are not attuned to the daily vicissitudes of the country's turbulent politics, this week could be a moment of crystallization, confirming that another Biden-Trump campaign is all but guaranteed, whether Americans want it or not.
And that revenge, the first in a US presidential election since 1956, is about to deepen
deep political and cultural divisions.
This is what we are seeing:
Will Trump get the nomination?
Tuesday should be a wake-up call for those who still doubt that Trump, who
faces 91 felony charges
in four criminal cases, will represent the Republican Party in this fall's general election.
Trump is on track to win enough delegates to become the Republican Party's presumptive presidential nominee.
Photo: Reuters
The former president
is on track to win enough delegates
to become the Republican Party's presumptive presidential nominee, if he continues to dominate as he has during the primary season.
And with no major opposition in the election, there is
every reason to believe he will do it.
As of Sunday,
Trump was 140 delegates short of the 1,215 needed
to win the Republican nomination at the party's national convention this summer.
There are 161 Republican delegates up for grabs Tuesday in
Georgia, Mississippi, Washington state and Hawaii.
With a strong performance on Tuesday,
Trump can sweep all the delegates
in Georgia, Mississippi and Washington state.
Hawaii allocates delegates proportionally so other candidates can get some, even with a small percentage of the vote.
What about Biden?
Democrats who didn't want Biden
to run again
are going to be
disappointed.
Like Trump,
Biden is on the verge of winning enough delegates
to become the Democratic Party's presumptive presidential nominee.
Like Trump, Biden is close to getting enough delegates.
Photo: Reuters
The president enters Tuesday
with 102 delegates less than the 1,968 necessary
to obtain the Democratic nomination.
There are 254 Democratic delegates up for grabs Tuesday
in Georgia, Mississippi and Washington state, in addition to races run by the Northern Mariana Islands and Democrats Abroad parties that conclude that day.
Without major adversaries,
Biden is on track to reach that mark.
But he also faces
continued resistance from his party's left flank
that threatens to tarnish the achievement.
A group of progressive activists and religious leaders in Georgia and other states are encouraging Democratic primary participants
not to vote for any presidential candidate.
This comes after a “non-committed” protest vote in Michigan recently netted two delegates.
The symbolic protest is intended as
a warning about Biden's reelection
over
his support for Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza.
While Biden's campaign team says it is not worried, the president
must unite his party
behind his candidacy if he hopes to defeat Trump in November.
After a fiery State of the Union address that he said drove a staggering $10 million in donations in just 24 hours, Biden has a chance to generate new momentum with a strong performance on Tuesday.
Georgia, a
key
swing state
In recent years, Georgia has become
one of the top
swing
states in the country.
And both candidates
are eager to perform well
and show their organizational strength in what is effectively
a dress rehearsal for the
much more consequential November presidential election.
The state was
a key battleground in 2020,
so close that Trump is indicted there for his effort to “find 11,780 votes” and overturn Biden's victory.
Both candidates
made Georgia a priority
in the days leading up to Tuesday's primaries.
But they delivered very different messages at a duel of campaign events over the weekend.
Trump's Saturday rally began with a message asking attendees to
support people serving time in prison
for their role in the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection.
MAGA Republican representative from Georgia, Marjorie Taylor Greene.
Photo: Stephen Maturen/Getty Images/AFP
The former president then appeared with MAGA Republican Georgia Rep
. Marjorie Taylor Greene
, whom he called “brave” for yelling at Biden during his State of the Union address.
Trump also highlighted his private meeting the night before with
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán
, who
has rolled back democracy in his country.
Biden, working to energize his coalition of voters of color, young people and suburbanites, drew attention to Trump's controversial associates and
his support for the far right.
“Our freedoms will literally be up for a vote in November,” he said.
Is this competition about to change?
With both candidates in a position to win their candidacy, the United States is about to formally move from the primary election phase
to the general election phase
of the 2024 elections.
But it's fair to say that
we don't know exactly what that will look like
.
Joe Biden, during the State of the Union address.
Photo: EFE
Typically at this time, candidates
shift their message
to address a broader group of voters,
especially moderates and independents
who have a more influential role in general elections compared to the base of hardcore voters who decide primaries.
But if this weekend is any indication,
Trump shows little interest
—or ability—
in adopting a more inclusive or moderate tone
.
He continues to falsely insist that the 2020 election was stolen from him and praise those who stormed the Capitol on one of the darkest days in modern American history.
We'll pay close attention to the tone of his official response (and
his social media posts
) after he gets the nomination.
On the Democratic side, we are about to find out if the Biden coalition changes its view of the race as it becomes clear that this election
is now a binary choice between Biden and Trump.
Biden's campaign team is betting heavily on that being the case.
Trump shows little interest – or ability – in adopting a more inclusive or moderate tone.
Photo: Reuters
On the eve of Tuesday's primaries, the Democratic president unveiled a new campaign ad as part of
a $30 million investment
in battleground states that portrays him as more effective than Trump, despite concerns about Biden's age.`
Trump
will not make it easy
for Biden.
A super PAC backing Trump released a new ad asking:
“If Biden wins, can he survive until 2029?”
Fasten your seat belt
.
The next eight months could be turbulent.
Translation: Elisa Carnelli