As of: March 12, 2024, 1:33 p.m
By: Nils Hinsberger
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The recapture of the Crimean Peninsula is one of Ukraine's declared war goals.
A TV documentary now appears to be unsettling Russian state media.
Moscow - A TV documentary is causing a Russian state media outlet to worry about the war in Ukraine: The
Tass
news agency warned on Monday (March 11) of a possible attack by the Ukrainian army on the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula.
The accusation is based on an hour-long documentary that was shown in Ukraine on Sunday (March 10).
In “War for the Sea: from Dnipro to Crimea,” Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Service, described the ongoing military operations in the Black Sea as “preparatory measures for a serious operation in Crimea,” Ukrainian military intelligence also writes on its website.
The HUR secret service also drew a connection to fighting over a bridgehead on the Dnipro River.
Russia, under its ruler Vladimir Putin, annexed Crimea in 2014 in violation of international law;
The peninsula has been under Russian administration ever since.
Tass
now wrote that Ukraine “has not yet recognized the reunification” of Crimea with Russia.
The usual argument in Moscow is that Crimea actually belongs to Russia anyway.
For his part, Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine, has formulated the reconquest of the peninsula and other areas occupied by Russia as one of the central war goals.
Crimea has symbolic and strategic relevance in the Ukraine war
Russia has already emphasized several times that the return of Crimea to Ukraine is not part of possible peace negotiations.
One reason may be the symbolic importance of Crimea, fueled by Moscow itself.
Another is the military-strategic importance of the peninsula.
Is Russia preparing for a Ukrainian attack on the Crimean Peninsula?
The reconquest is at least part of Volodymyr Zelensky's declared war aim.
© SNA/Imago/Patrick Doyle/The Canadian Press/AP/dpa/Montage: IPPEN.MEDIA
Crimea is a key logistical hub for Russian troops in southern Ukraine.
The port in Sevastopol is also traditionally the main base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
The “maintenance of the fleet, the repair base, several workshops and airfields” are also located there, emphasized the commander of the Ukrainian Navy, Oleksij Nejischpapa.
There is also a medical care center and training facilities in the port area.
Loss of Crimea as a reason for Putin's nuclear strike?
The importance of Crimea is also indirectly illustrated by fears of a Russian nuclear strike if the peninsula is lost.
Political scientist Gerhard Mangott from the University of Innsbruck emphasized to
IPPEN.MEDIA
that he considers the use of nuclear weapons to be fundamentally unlikely, but possible.
One trigger could be the reconquest of Crimea.
“Taking back Crimea would mean the overthrow of Putin,” Mangott said in the interview.
“If Crimea is at risk, I would not rule out Putin using tactical nuclear weapons.”
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Brigadier General Helmut Ganser, retired, came to a similar assessment in an interview with the
Frankfurter Rundschau
.
Losing the peninsula could represent a “possible trigger point” and give Putin the impression “that their backs are against the wall,” said Ganser.
He does not consider the possible use of nuclear weapons to be ruled out.
Crimea also in view: Zelensky wants to bring the flag “back to every corner of Ukraine”
Volodymyr Zelenskyj does not seem to be deterred by such horror scenarios.
In March 2023, he emphasized his war goal of returning the “Ukrainian flag to every corner of Ukraine.”
The USA had also spoken out on the question of retaking Crimea.
Last year, US State Department spokesman Ned Price said: “Crimea is part of Ukraine.”
It remains to be seen whether Ukraine will put its predictions from the documentary into practice.
Zelensky's counteroffensive failed in 2023 due, among other things, to poor weather conditions and the supply of weapons.
Nevertheless, Russia appears to be taking the threat seriously.
Kiev is currently facing the problem that Ukrainian soldiers are running out of ammunition.
The EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell addressed the EU states and emphasized that Ukraine needed ammunition “urgently and in large quantities”.
Russia has also recognized this weakness.
Due to a lack of aid deliveries from the USA, not all of Ukraine's needs can be met, writes
Tass
.
In order to gain support in the war against Russia, Zelensky is trying to convince Western states through isolated actions that there is a real chance of retaking Crimea.
(
nhi
)