With this Tuesday's primaries, the president of the United States, Joe Biden, and former president Donald Trump
were on their way to mathematically becoming the candidates of their respective parties
to now aim their entire arsenal at winning the biggest prize in the November presidential elections. in an electrifying electoral campaign that will have the country and the world in suspense.
Trump will win the primaries in Mississippi, Hawaii and the state of Washington
and, with the sum of the delegates he already garnered in the previous elections, he reaches the magic number of 1,215 voters with which he is virtually considered the Republican candidate.
The tycoon arrived without competition
in these last primaries since the last rival left in his way, his former ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, dropped out of the race after Super Tuesday last week.
In the Democratic field, Georgia, Mississippi and Washington vote and Biden, who never had any major rivals in the race, will win and
thus obtain the 1,968 delegates necessary to secure the candidacy.
In this way, Trump and Biden already have their prize in hand long before the formal voting process ends, on June 4.
The formal blessing of both candidates will take place at the party conventions, the Republican one on July 15 in Milwaukee and the Democratic one on August 19 in Chicago.
The end of the primaries is good news for both, because now Trump and Biden will allocate all their time, effort and money
to focus on the final stretch against each other
, in a reissue of the 2020 campaign that ended with the victory of the Democrat and with the Republican denouncing a fraud that did not exist and resisting leaving the White House.
The duel threatens to be fierce because the polls today are practically tied, with a slight advantage in key states for Trump,
who faces 91 charges in Justice
and who also needs his energy to face the courts.
Supporters of former President Donald Trump in New Hampshire.
Photo Bloomberg
But there is a long way to go until November and any minimal variable can tip the election to one side or the other.
Trump and Biden are already hunting Haley's voters, more moderate Republicans who generally do not want another term from the Republican.
But
what will be the general strategy of both campaigns to add the greatest number of votes possible?
What's coming
“Trump is expected to focus primarily on immigration and, in particular, the US-Mexico border.
Concerns about immigration today occupy the main focus of interest among Republican voters.
Secondly, Trump will focus on the economy and rising prices, for which he will blame Biden,”
Joshua Blank, a political research expert at the University of Texas at Austin, told
Clarín .
Regarding Biden's campaign, Blank anticipates that “attention will be divided, first, on his record and his bipartisan achievements, but almost equally
he will try to frame it as a personal battle between him and Trump
, and not a referendum on his leadership.
Biden has already won a head-to-head matchup against Trump in 2020 and probably feels like he can do it again.”
A person carries Joe Biden posters during a get-out-the-vote event in Manchester.
Photo The New York Times
For Todd L. Belt, professor and director of the Master's Degree in Political Management at George Washington University, “Trump will attempt a typical "referendum" election on what Biden has achieved as president.
On the other hand, Biden will try to tell voters that they have two alternatives: return to the chaos of the Trump administration or continue with the normality of the Biden administration.
The president will also try to show how
Trump is a threat to democracy
,” he told
Clarín.
For Blank, the main challenges facing the two campaigns and the candidates
are “the advanced age of both (81 Biden and 77 Trump)
in a race that is repeated and does not excite.”
Furthermore, he believes that more than mobilizing the bases of each party, “this election will focus attention on how many Republicans and Democrats prefer to stay home and who that decision ultimately ends up benefiting and granting the presidency.”
For Belt, the biggest challenges that Biden will face are the economy, immigration, an issue of great concern, and crime.
“Although the economy in the US is doing well, people have not yet accepted higher prices due to inflation in previous years as normal,” she notes.
For Biden, the expert points out, another important issue will be abortion, a right that was limited by the conservative Supreme Court and a measure that Trump secretly claims because he appointed 3 of the most right-wing judges on the court.
For the president, the issue is key
because it traditionally attracts women and young voters to the polls and has proven to be effective in helping Democrats in 2022 and 2023.
P.B.