The IDF attacked military buildings and terrorist infrastructure of the Hezbollah terrorist organization in southern Lebanon/IDF Spokesman
Hezbollah was surprised by the timing of the October 7 attack by Hamas - according to intelligence sources.
However, he came to his senses and within a few days went into the campaign with the backing of Iran.
The infiltration of terrorists through the northern border, which was the main mode of operation of Hamas in Otaf, was thwarted by the IDF very quickly after the grip on the fence was improved.
Hezbollah, according to the attempts in recent weeks, stopped the infiltration attempts - and yet, the IDF maintains a large number of brigades along the contact line on high alert.
However, the Shiite organization still has other ways of acting - this is the balance of terror between Hezbollah and Israel.
The Shiite organization still has other courses of action.
Hassan Nasrallah/ShutterStock
anti-tank missiles
At the beginning of the campaign, Hezbollah managed to locate targets in the Israeli rear near the fence and in the area and hit them.
However, the IDF very quickly imposed a high degree of discipline on anyone who entered the area in order to reduce as much as possible exposure to the anti-tank squads.
At the same time, he launched an intelligence and fire effort to locate the operatives and thwart them ahead of time or shortly thereafter.
In practice, Hezbollah recorded achievements due to the precision and professional level of its operatives - but very quickly its effectiveness decreased (anti-tank missile to hit ratio). Therefore, it was forced to launch rockets again at the same targets such as: the air force base on Mount Miron.
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Hezbollah recorded achievements due to the precision and professional level.
Anti-aircraft fire in the springs/courtesy of those photographed
Shooting a steep course
Rockets are Hezbollah's main tool in the limited campaign against Israel.
As far as the Shiite organization is concerned, it consumes a very large arsenal of weapons very easily through the cells of all the terrorist organizations in Lebanon - including the Hamas terrorists who operate in southern Lebanon.
But the level of effectiveness is very low because of the iron dome, and since it is a statistical weapon that does not produce expected results, unlike accurate shooting.
On the Israeli side, the rockets strike terror, create deterrence among the Israeli public especially because of the sight of the falls and the great destruction in settlements and cities.
Especially when it comes to volleys.
They are the ones who led to the evacuation of tens of thousands of Israeli citizens.
Disrupts the fabric of life of the residents who remain in the settlements by running to protected spaces.
The rockets generate great public pressure.
Very low effectiveness due to iron dome.
Rocket fire from Lebanon/official website, Shimon Ben Gida.
Rabbi of Kibbutz Menara
Unmanned aircraft
Hezbollah scores points for itself when it succeeds in penetrating the IDF's air defense system, but in practice most of its unmanned aircraft fall in open areas or are intercepted, also in Lebanese territory - and the effectiveness is little.
However, Hezbollah scores points in this space in the consciousness and pressure on the Israeli public. That's why last night's attack on the drone warehouses, about a hundred kilometers from Israel, in Baalbach was very painful for him - this is because he doesn't have many aircraft and any such destruction, in addition to creating a feeling of intrusion, deprives him of abilities and disrupts others because then his operatives Afraid to get to the warehouses and take the dishes out.
Hezbollah scores points for itself when it penetrates the air defense/documentation in social networks according to Article 27 A of the Copyright Law
The political echelon and the general staff of the IDF
The threats against Hezbollah by the Minister of Defense, Yoav Galant, and the Chief of Staff, Herzi Halevi, are already being received with laughter at the top of the Shiite organization. They have been eroded. In the Middle East, what matters are the actions, and therefore it can be concluded that their use is intended for internal messaging needs.
But overall, the IDF L wins on points.
The Northern Command led thousands of attacks that destroyed many infrastructures that Hezbollah had worked on over the years in the area of the contact line and in depth.
More than 240 activists were killed, not including activists from other organizations and Shiite militias from Syria.
The big question is when the deterrence wears off, tens of thousands of Israeli citizens cannot return to their homes and can't even see the horizon, when everyone in the Middle East knows that Nasrallah will create a security strip inside Israeli territory without maneuvering even an inch into Israel - how long will the political echelon and the public maintain restraint.
Commander The Northern Command, Major General Uri Gordin, is doing the right thing by using every moment to destroy more and more infrastructure, when the political echelon is in love. An attrition system is emerging against Hezbollah, but the explosion can come at any moment. A rocket falling in a crowded place and killing civilians will lead to a disproportionate reaction and from there everything can deteriorate into war much wider.
The Minister of Defense and the Chief of Staff are already being greeted with laughter at the top of the Shia Organization/Government Press Office, Amos Ben Gershom
Eliminating the equation and the common language
From the moment when the political echelon determined that this was a limited campaign, and Hezbollah agreed that it was wrong for him to degenerate into a wide war - the commander of the Northern Command decided to change the reactions every day.
The scope of the attacks, the type of targets, the range from the border and the intensity of fire from the air and from the ground.
The Lebanese side is paying a heavy price and there are entire villages, in which over 70% of the houses were used as terrorist outposts, which have been destroyed.
The Lebanese public reacts accordingly and began to criticize the fact that more than 120,000 have left their homes and do not see the horizon.
Last week a public campaign against war with Israel began, Lebanese members of parliament identified with Hezbollah began to speak out against the campaign with Israel, the economic damage is accumulating and cannot be restored in the coming years due to the extent of the destruction.
According to intelligence sources, an internal criticism has begun from home about the American-French involvement in Lebanese affairs and the pressure exerted by the international arena on the Lebanese government.
Internal criticism against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Air Force attack in Baalbak/documentation on social networks according to Section 27 A of the Copyright Law
the next step
At the political level, it is estimated that it will be possible to reach a temporary agreement with Lebanon on a cease-fire if the war in the Gaza Strip goes from an intense war to an ongoing security activity, however, if Hezbollah continues with the fire, there will be no choice but to intensify the reaction levels and even to manipulate Lebanon in order to create a security zone in the Lebanese territory.
Everyone can estimate how it will start - but no one on either side of the border has even a close estimate of how it might end.
Therefore, both sides scratch the envelope of diversity in attack and responses.
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War of Iron Swords
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