As of: March 13, 2024, 1:59 p.m
By: Florian Naumann
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In northern Europe, people believe a Russian “victory” in the Ukraine war is entirely possible – and fear consequences for their own countries.
Helsinki/Stockholm – Russian President Vladimir Putin continues his saber rattling against the new NATO members Finland and Sweden.
This is likely to be grist for the mill of top politicians in the Nordic countries: Sweden's civil protection minister warned of a possible “war” weeks ago.
Secret service chief Charlotte von Essen recently described Russia as the biggest threat to the country.
Experts from Finland and Sweden also see Russia as a threat in the future.
Especially in the event of a Russian “victory” in the Ukraine war, we are faced with a choice, it was said in an interview with the Finnish broadcaster
YLE
published on Wednesday (March 13) .
This has recently become more likely, warned expert Tyyne Karjalainen, in view of the failed Ukrainian counteroffensive - and Western aid deliveries, which kept Ukraine afloat but were not enough to ensure success.
But if Russia has the upper hand, it will be necessary to continue to arm itself - or to accept Russian "dominance", emphasized her Swedish colleague Robert Dalsjö.
As comparatively small states, the countries are particularly under pressure if the international regulatory system breaks down, was another warning.
Warnings about Putin from Finland and Sweden: “breathing space” before “next bite”?
The security policy expert from Helsinki and the defense expert from Stockholm agreed that this applies regardless of NATO accession.
If he wins in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin “could be of the opinion that he has defeated not only Ukraine, but the entire Western world,” Dalsjö speculated.
After a “breathing space” to compensate for the losses in material and personnel, Russia may feel that “it is time to grab the next bite.”
Vladimir Putin worries Finland - in the background a pro-Russian motorcade in Helsinki.
(Archive image) © Montage: dpa/picture-alliance/Imago/Pool Sputnik Kremlin/AP/Sergei Savostyanov/Lehtikuva
Jonas Haggren, Sweden's military representative to NATO and the EU, expressed himself somewhat more conservatively at the beginning of the year.
The risk of a conflict between NATO and Russia is currently rather low, he told the broadcaster
SR
.
However, the scenario can no longer be ruled out.
There is “great seriousness” in this.
In the same place, political scientist Gunilla Herolf warned that the importance of international agreements is dwindling.
The arms race is likely to intensify - “that is a great moment of concern”.
Is Putin's hunger for land growing?
“Finland in a particularly vulnerable situation”
Karjalainen now emphasized at
YLE
: As a small country, Finland particularly benefits from the fact that international agreements are respected.
However, it is precisely this principle that could be further jeopardized given the situation in Ukraine.
“If Russia assesses the situation in such a way that it is worth challenging the West in various ways, then Finland, as a border state, is in a particularly vulnerable situation,” she added.
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Dalsjö approached the rearmament issue differently than her professional colleague Herolf.
“That would mean that our countries are facing a choice,” explained, referring to a hypothetical Russian victory.
“Either we have to build up our defense even more strongly to deter Russia, or we accept Russian dominance.” Given tight national budgets in many places and ongoing disputes over NATO’s financial targets, the answer is likely to be quite open.
What does a Russian “victory” in the Ukraine war look like?
The Baltics are also worried
A “victory” for Russia does not necessarily mean a collapse of Ukraine as a state, said Karjalainen.
The “key question” is whether the Kremlin will achieve a kind of dictated peace – for example in the form of a limit on Ukraine’s defense capacity or a veto against joining NATO.
Dalsjö referred to territorial questions: It would be a “victory” for Putin if Ukraine loses parts of its territory for an indefinite future: “It would be a Russian victory if Ukraine is forced to accept that land will be occupied for decades. “
However, in this scenario he sees other states as possibly even more at risk than their Nordic partners Sweden and Finland.
According to many observers, the Baltics are a possible target point.
But all of this depends on the question of how Putin's Kremlin assesses the "determination" of the West.
There are also already major concerns about a threat from Russia in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
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