Could the European Union soon have a new candidate for membership?
For the first time, a member of the Armenian government has publicly announced his desire to join the European Union.
Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan made this statement last Friday in an interview with the Turkish channel TRT.
“New opportunities are currently being discussed in Armenia and accession to the European Union is one of them, that is no secret [...] We are in the process of deepening our ties with the European Union "
, did he declare.
Already, on March 4, the President of the Armenian Parliament, Alen Simonyan, had already mentioned the possibility of such accession.
“We are ready and we will go in the direction that will bring us maximum security
,” he declared, reported by the magazine
News of Armenia
, which recalls that in October 2023, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian declared to Parliament European Union that Armenia was ready to move closer to the European Union,
“to the extent that the European Union deems it possible”
.
Held in a vice by its neighbor Azerbaijan, Armenia remains under constant pressure from the country led by Ilham Aliev.
In 2020, a third of Nagorno-Karabakh – a formerly autonomous region populated by a majority of Armenians – was annexed by Baku, before the entire region was invaded on September 19.
Faced with Azerbaijani nationalism and placed in a precarious security situation, the small Christian country, without access to the sea, is seeking allies in the West, while its relations with its historic godfather, Russia, have recently become strained.
“Europe is very involved in the security affairs of our country”
Ararat Mirzoyan, Armenian Minister of Foreign Affairs
Ararat Mirzoyan notably underlined the existence of a
“strategic partnership”
with the United States and the European Union.
“Europe is very involved in the security affairs of our country, a surveillance mission is deployed on the border with Azerbaijan (announced on January 23, Editor's note).
Since then, the tension has decreased and we can see stability
,” he explained.
The head of Armenian diplomacy assured that the priority remained the
“normalization of ties maintained with our neighbors”
.
This winter, meetings between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev took place through Charles Michel, President of the European Council.
An arbitration which suggested an easing of tensions between the two countries.
A European transition inspired by its Georgian neighbor?
But the situation is far from satisfactory in the long term for Yerevan.
Joining the European Union could therefore provide more lasting security guarantees to counterbalance the balance of power, currently favorable to Baku, a much richer oil and gas power.
Armenia has already joined the
“Eastern Partnership”
launched in 2009 by the European Union for several countries in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus.
In 2017, Brussels and Yerevan even signed a
“comprehensive partnership agreement”
to deepen their relations.
A new, strengthened agreement was announced last month, relating in particular to the liberalization of visas.
But an official application to join the EU would be an act of a completely different scope.
To date, nine states have official
“candidate”
status : Turkey, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Albania, Ukraine, Moldova, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Georgia.
Could Armenia be a tenth?
The process is in any case long, already to apply, but above all, afterwards, to formally join the Union.
In total, more than 10 years can pass and, like Turkey, the process can become stagnant, unanimity being the rule within the 27.
Still, it is difficult, when talking about an Armenian candidacy, not to think of the case of its Georgian neighbor.
Formerly dominated by Russia, Georgia moved closer to the West after the brief war of 2008 over the provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
But the application for membership in the European Union was only submitted in March 2022, before being validated on December 14, 2023. Since then, Tbilisi has officially had the status of official candidate.
Despite this long journey towards the West, Russia still remains influential in Georgia, despite the war in Ukraine.
“It is our duty to help Armenia protect its civilian populations in the event of aggression”
Sébastien Lecornu
Among the European countries, more or less attentive to the fate of Armenia, France is a privileged partner.
During Nikol Pashinyan's visit to Paris for the pantheonization of Missak Manouchian, Emmanuel Macron recalled the link that united the two countries.
“We reaffirm France’s unwavering support for Armenia’s independence, its territorial integrity and its aspiration for peace,”
he declared.
Above all, on February 23, on the occasion of the visit to Armenia by Minister of the Armed Forces Sébastien Lecornu, France delivered military equipment to Yerevan and signed a new arms contract with the Caucasian country.
“It is our duty to help Armenia protect its civilian populations in the event of aggression
,” the Minister of the Armed Forces then underlined.
Support which, however, remains an exception among EU members, as noted by European MP Nathalie Loiseau, member of the French delegation during the visit to Yerevan.
“Europe should finance the sending of military equipment to Armenia,”
she hoped.
Also read: “Armenians, aim for a fast path to membership in the European Union”
An unprecedented distance with Russia
This shift of Armenia towards the West comes in a context of cooling relations with Russia.
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, there has been distrust between the two historic partners, with Yerevan doubting Moscow's willingness and ability to fulfill its commitments to protect Armenian territory.
The concern was confirmed when the Russian rampart proved ineffective against the Azerbaijani offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh on September 19.
Since then, the two countries have maintained more distant relations.
Thus, on March 7, during a press conference, Ararat Mirzoyan confirmed having requested the withdrawal of FSB agents from the airport of the Armenian capital.
Armenia also joined the International Criminal Court on February 8, 2024, which, a year earlier, issued an arrest warrant against Vladimir Putin.
A strong act, which would in theory force Armenia to arrest the Russian president in the event of a visit to its territory.
Even if such an eventuality remains improbable, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov regretted
“an erroneous”
and
“regrettable”
decision by his Armenian counterparts
.
Read alsoBy joining the International Criminal Court, Armenia turns a little more away from Russia
Finally, on February 23, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan made the decision to suspend his country's participation in the OTSC, a political-military organization led by Russia, bringing together several countries of the former USSR.
And this despite the energy and military dependence of the small landlocked country on Russia.
Several particularly strategic Armenian energy infrastructures are owned by the Russian civil nuclear champion, Rosatom, while 95% of Armenian weapons come from Russia, recalls geopolitologist Tigran Yegavian.
Four villages claimed by Azerbaijan
The appeal by the head of Armenian diplomacy to the European Union, although it has nothing official yet, comes at a time when the military situation between Yerevan and Baku is far from being calmed and could, on the contrary, be degrade again.
On March 7, Azerbaijani Deputy Prime Minister Shahin Musatfayev demanded the
“return to Azerbaijan”
of four border villages in the Tavush region in northeastern Armenia.
“These villages undoubtedly belong to Azerbaijan and should be returned immediately,”
he said
.
“A climate of peace has reigned for several months on the border of the two countries,”
proclaimed Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev on February 1, in a statement relayed by the Azerbaijani press agency
Azertac
.
A return to Azerbaijani control of villages in the Tavush region could lead to
“loss of control of the Yerevan-Tbilisi-Black Sea commercial axis, as well as one of the main gas pipelines which supply the capital”
, warns the media French-speaking
Le Courrier d’Erevan
.