As of: March 13, 2024, 7:03 p.m
By: Peter Kees
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The savings bank advises buying real estate.
Not everyone can afford that.
Symbolic image: Andrea Warnecke/dpa © Andrea Warnecke
Despite higher interest rates, the Sparkasse recommends investing in your own home and saving by doing without - the stagnation in construction will continue to drive up rents, according to the forecast
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- Every two years, the Kreissparkasse München Starnberg Ebersberg, together with LBS Süd, provides information about the most important trends on the real estate market.
The good news: Andreas Frühschütz, CEO of Kreissparkasse München Starnberg Ebersberg, expects real estate prices to stabilize.
The current price level is expected to hold.
So no further price slide like in the past few months.
That's why he recommends buying it now.
“It won’t get any cheaper!” is his prediction.
“Interest rates are currently at a low level and prices are no longer falling.”
Property buyers are still often waiting.
“After the European Central Bank's abrupt interest rate change, motivated by high inflation, the interest rate peak at the beginning of the year appears to have been exceeded,” says the deputy chairman of LBS Süd, Erwin Bumberger, commenting on the interest rate situation with a view to the recently slightly lower yield on ten-year federal bonds.
This means: “Building interest rates have fallen slightly after they had previously quadrupled within a year.
This means that the financing prospects for real estate have brightened slightly again.”
Financing to buy a house: Not everyone can afford this
Nevertheless, not every property wish “that would have been realizable at the old interest rate level” can be fulfilled.
But, according to the head of the Ebersberger Kreissparkasse real estate center Florian Hellmich, 70 to 80 percent of financing requests could now be realized again.
In 2021 and 2022 this rate was still 30 to 40 percent.
The bankers speak of a “normal price situation” that has now been reached again.
The decline in real estate demand last year due to increased interest rates and inflation has calmed down.
“We are currently around the price level of 2020,” says Bumberger.
The price peaks have melted away.
This will make homeownership affordable again.
Of course not for everyone.
The ownership rate in Bavaria is 47 percent and in Munich it is 20 percent.
The real estate experts at Kreissparkasse (from left): Jens Kambach (Head of Real Estate Center Kreissparkasse) Erwin Bumberger (Deputy Chairman of the Board LBS Süd), Andreas Frühschütz (Chairman of Kreissparkasse München Starnberg Ebersberg), Florian Hellmich (Head of Real Estate Center Ebersberg), Kerstin Brehm (Media Officer Kreissparkasse), Tilman Sanner (press spokesman LBS Süd).
© Peter Kees
“For the current year, we are assuming that the price decline will flatten and that real estate prices will move sideways due to the slightly lower building interest rates and falling inflation,” said the LBS man.
Location and energetic status play a role.
“That’s why we expect less buyer interest and price reductions for properties in poor energy condition,” says Bumberger.
(By the way: Everything from the region is now also available in our regular Ebersberg newsletter.)
High interest rates - Sparkasse says: Advantages outweigh the advantages
Of course, the higher interest rates represent a hurdle when it comes to financing, but security against rent increases or termination and your own independence are good reasons for the most important investment: concrete gold.
In general, the interest rate is not that dramatic, Frühschütz emphasized: “While interest and repayment were previously around 3.5 percent, they are now around 4.5 percent.” And there is another aspect that speaks in favor of owning your own home: In Bavaria is expected to see a significant increase.
According to the State Office for Statistics, 610,000 more people will live in Bavaria by 2042.
This means that the need for living space will probably remain high.
“And that in turn leads to pressure on rental prices.
That means rents will rise,” according to the finance people’s assessment, “at least in metropolitan areas.”
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A lack of momentum in the construction industry is expected to drive up rents further
They point to a lack of momentum in the construction industry.
The Bavarian state government's goal of around 70,000 new apartments per year has so far been missed by around 10,000.
“A significant increase is not to be expected, on the contrary.” What can you do as a consumer?
“Thinking about implementation in good time means saving, building savings, building equity.” But there is still less being built, 23 percent less than a year ago.
Increased costs, a shortage of raw materials, a lack of personnel and increased costs are responsible for this.
The finance people calculate that around 20 percent equity is necessary to purchase a property.
They admit that it is no longer as easy as it was a few generations ago.
But once upon a time, they also say, builders simply showed different consumer behavior than many people today.
You have to set priorities and possibly forego consumption for your own four walls.
The formula is: Saving means doing without.
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