Before having a new Government, some Portuguese are already wondering how long it will last.
Some rating agencies anticipate that little and foresee elections in autumn given the extreme fragility that an Executive of the Democratic Alliance (AD) will have, which received 1.7 million votes and tied with the Socialist Party (PS) last Sunday, without make an agreement with the extreme right of Chega, supported by 1.1 million voters.
Luís Montenegro, the center-right candidate led by AD, reiterated on election night that he will not include the extreme right in his Government and some representatives of his formation, the Social Democratic Party (PSD), already take for granted the scenario of a Government in minority forced to negotiate in Parliament on all important matters.
Paulo Rangel, vice president of the PSD, has declared that they will form “necessary convergences” in the Chamber to govern, without excluding some forces on the left such as the PS and Livre.
“It may be easy to overthrow an Executive in the rhetoric of election night, but it does not seem to me that it will be so easy to do so later,” Rangel declared to CNN Portugal.
With these elements, it does not seem, therefore, that Montenegro is going to change its mind to facilitate its governance.
André Ventura, a former colleague of the PSD and founder of Chega, warned on Monday night that without negotiation with his party there will be no political stability, given that the other way, the understanding between PSD and PS, was completely ruled out by the socialist leader, Pedro Nuno Santos.
There will be no central bloc between the two major parties in Portugal, although the socialists will allow the formation of the minority Government of the Democratic Alliance.
“The PS will be the opposition and will not leave the leadership of the opposition to Chega,” the socialist warned on election night.
In an interview with TVI and CNN Portugal, Ventura insisted on demanding Chega's entry into the Government and expressed his willingness to renounce some of his most controversial measures, such as the introduction of life sentences or chemical castration for rapists.
He also warned Luís Montenegro that he will knock down his budget project for 2025 if he does not negotiate it with Chega.
That litmus test will be in the fall, when AD brings the State accounts for the following year to the Assembly of the Republic.
“We are available to converge, but not to be humiliated,” said Ventura, who predicted room for growth for his training.
“The normal thing is that in the next elections Chega will compete for first position,” he warned.
The key, budgets
The budget vote is decisive.
The last time they were knocked down in the Chamber occurred in 2021, when the Left Bloc and the Portuguese Communist Party rejected the project of the socialist António Costa, and led the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, to dissolve the legislature and convene early elections in January 2022. It would be incoherent with his own doctrine for the head of state to allow AD to govern with budgets of twelfths (monthly spending can only be one-twelfth of that incurred the previous year), which is the mechanism that contemplates legislation to manage the Administration without new accounts.
Ventura outlined a series of unavoidable demands that would be easy for the PSD to assume, such as improving pensions, a salary supplement for various police forces or the recognition of working time for teachers.
In his first interview after his spectacular electoral result, he presented himself as a champion of responsibility and good sense, in addition to ensuring that Rebelo de Sousa told him before the campaign that he would not oppose the formation of a Government with the presence of Chega .
The figure of the President of the Republic has been affected by this crisis.
Some analysts and politicians have blamed him for the devilish scenario created in the country after the early elections.
Following the resignation of Prime Minister António Costa last November, the president could have chosen to continue the legislature with another socialist prime minister.
Half of his Council of State defended this path.
Rebelo de Sousa chose the dissolution of Parliament and the call for elections to “clarify” the political situation.
Now the political situation is less clear than ever.
So much so that the President of the Republic will not entrust the formation of a Government to any leader until the counting of the emigrants' vote is completed, who elect four seats and which could alter the current relationship of forces between AD and PS, which They have 79 and 77 representatives, respectively.
Although the will of the socialist Pedro Nuno Santos, no matter how much the relationship of forces is reversed, is to entrench himself in the opposition and try to remake his project to reconnect with the voters.
The head of state begins this Tuesday the round of consultations with the parties elected on Sunday.
It starts with the only elected representative of People-Animals-Nature (PAN), Inés Sousa Real, who is willing to dialogue with the center-right, but who lacks the strength to condition any scenario.
Rebelo de Sousa has decided to delay the consultations so that they coincide with the counting of the vote from abroad and has established a daily interview.
The three major decisive appointments with the leaders of AD, PS and Chega will occur next week.
It is expected that whatever happens with the emigrants' votes, which will be known on Wednesday the 20th, Luís Montenegro will be entrusted with the formation of the Government, who declared himself the winner of the elections and willing to govern.
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