As of: March 13, 2024, 6:07 a.m
By: Sven Hauberg
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“Great chemistry”: Xi Jinping and Donald Trump 2017. © Alex Brandon/picture alliance/dpa
Donald Trump could become US president again – and encourage China to reach out to Taiwan.
The Republican is still popular there.
As soon as he was elected into office, Donald Trump did something unheard of: he answered the phone.
On the other end of the line was Tsai Ing-wen, the President of Taiwan, who congratulated Trump on his election victory.
The phone call was historic.
For the first time since 1979, when the United States broke off diplomatic relations with Taiwan and switched to Beijing, a sitting or incoming US president spoke to his Taiwanese counterpart.
“The President of Taiwan CALLED ME today to congratulate me on winning the presidency,” Trump trumpeted to the world via Twitter after the conversation, presumably without any idea what he had done.
That was in December 2016, and Europe was deeply shocked by the election of the Republican.
In Taiwan, on the other hand, people were much more optimistic about the future; the country suddenly had an unexpected ally at its side.
And Trump remained popular in Taiwan.
When he ran for re-election in 2020, one poll found 42 percent of Taiwanese hoped the Republican would win;
Only 30 percent were keeping their fingers crossed for his competitor Joe Biden.
The Trump years, which left Europe and many other parts of the world in shock, were described by Taiwanese media as a “golden age”.
This is not just because of the historic phone call with President Tsai.
Under Trump, the U.S. also passed a series of laws to strengthen unofficial ties with Taiwan, sold more arms to the China-beleaguered country than in decades, and opened a new $255 million de facto Embassy in the capital Taipei.
Donald Trump and China: First best friends, then a trade war rages
Above all, Trump transformed from a friend of China to a critic of China in just a few months.
At the beginning of 2017, he praised the “great chemistry” between himself and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
A little later, however, Trump launched a trade war with the Chinese, whom he accused of unfair trade practices.
As a result, the US imposed tariffs on Chinese goods worth more than $360 billion.
These largely remained in place under Biden.
Benefited from this: Taiwan.
“Many companies adjusted their supply chain, and many of them left China,” said Chen Fang-yu, a political scientist at Soochow University in Taipei.
Some of the companies that fled China found a new home in Taiwan.
“Therefore, due to the trade war, there are more and more foreign direct investments,” Chen said.
Even today, “most Taiwanese have a positive image of the Trump administration.”
Now Donald Trump is facing a possible comeback: After “Super Tuesday” and Nikki Haley’s withdrawal, everything points to a second duel with Joe Biden; Trump is ahead in most polls.
So there is reason to celebrate in Taiwan?
Not quite.
Because Trump's support for the island republic angered Beijing - and Taiwan also felt the effects.
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Will Trump deliver Taiwan to the knife?
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi dismissed the phone call with Tsai as a “little trick” by the Taiwanese.
However, the more the conflict with the USA intensified, the more aggressive Beijing became towards Taiwan.
This can be seen, for example, in how often Chinese fighter jets have entered Taiwan's air defense zone (ADIZ): in 2018, the site PLA Tracker, which monitors the activities of China's People's Liberation Army, did not count any such incidents;
Two years later, however, there were almost 400 injuries from Taiwan's ADIZ, and another year later the number climbed to almost 1,000.
It is also completely unclear whether Trump would support Taiwan militarily if China attacked the island state.
Last summer, the ex-president refused to answer this question.
“That would put me in a bad negotiating position,” Trump said in an interview with Fox News at the time.
Joe Biden, on the other hand, has repeatedly assured Taiwan that he would intervene in an emergency.
“The problem is that Trump is unpredictable,” says political scientist Chen.
Trump is not a fan of alliances
He also points out that Trump, with his “America First” policy, is not a fan of alliances: “That could weaken the USA’s alliances in the region.” Biden had laboriously brought Taiwan’s neighbors Japan, South Korea and the Philippines closer together again USA bound.
If the conflict over Taiwan escalates, American fighter jets would probably take off from the military bases there and warships would leave.
Trump's closeness to Russian President Vladimir Putin is also being viewed with concern in Taiwan.
Could China's Communist Party feel emboldened to reach for Taiwan if Trump dumps Ukraine?
In any case, Taiwan's newly elected President Lai Ching-te must be prepared for a second Republican term in office, said Stanley Kao recently, who, as Taiwan's de facto ambassador to Washington, had once arranged the phone call between Trump and Tsai Ing-wen.
“I see growing and very strong support for Taiwan”
It is such fears that are even prompting politicians from Trump's own camp to assure Taiwan of America's unwavering support.
“I am very confident that support for Taiwan will continue regardless of who is in the White House,” powerful Republican Rep. Mike Gallagher said during a visit to Taipei in late February.
“I see growing and very strong support for Taiwan.”
In Beijing, however, people believe that Trump could abandon the Taiwanese at any time.
"The US will always pursue an 'America first' policy," a spokesman for China's Taiwan Affairs Office said in late January.
“And Taiwan can go from being a pawn to being a discarded pawn at any time.”