Gideon Sa'ar on ending engagement with the Blue and White party/Elad Gutman
This morning (Wednesday) a meeting of the ministers of the state camp was supposed to take place at Benny Gantz's.
When the Gantz office contacted the Sa'ar office to verify his arrival, they were told that it would not help.
Sa'ar is being interviewed at the same time at the "De Marker" conference.
Not a word was said about the retirement notice, which was supposed to be published in the evening.
In this respect, Sa'ar's announcement yesterday stunned everyone, from Gantz to trooper troops.
As far as I understand, Netanyahu too.
By and large it was clear that it would come, the question was not if, but when.
Anyone who understands anything about politics knew that the chance that Gantz and Saar will run together once again is next to zero.
From the moment Gantz made the decision to leave Sa'ar out of the war cabinet and put Gadi Eisenkot in there, the countdown began.
If there's one thing Gideon Sa'ar hates being a sucker, a kind of useful trick.
This is how he felt in the last 20 months, since he joined the state camp.
Last night he cut it.
It will no longer be a useful trick.
What will he be?
We will see that.
That day when Gantz announced to Sa'ar that he would not enter the war cabinet, despite the express agreement between them, has been with Sa'ar ever since.
Gantz tried to explain to Sa'ar that the circumstances imposed on Israel, the difficult war and the danger of a multi-arena flare-up force him to bring in Gadi Eisenkot, who holds the rank of major general.
Gideon Sa'ar, swearing-in of the government, December 29, 2022/photo processing, Reuven Castro
Saar did not relent.
In the very difficult exchange between them, he reminded Gantz that an excess of generals can cause the kind of conceptions that brought upon us the October 7 disaster, and also the fact that he sat in five cabinets, was a government secretary and gained experience that not many have.
A civilian-security worldview is required in the cabinet, sometimes more than another general, he said.
The end is known.
Eisenkot is inside, Saar is outside.
The consolation prize - to sit with all the outcasts and outcasts in the expanded cabinet - didn't really make up for it.
Even then he knew that the fall had fallen.
He will not stay with Gantz.
To the announcement of the dissolution of the state camp yesterday, Sa'ar attached a demand to join the war cabinet.
Now, when he is an independent party, his right.
in his opinion.
The problem is that Gantz has the right to veto the addition of members to the war cabinet.
Will Gantz use it?
And if so, will Netanyahu fire Gantz, in order to add Sa'ar and strengthen the chance that Sa'ar will decide, at some point, that it is time to return to Netanyahu's arms?
The chances of this happening are very low.
Sa'ar does not dismantle the state camp to save Netanyahu.
He is doing this to restore the "Gideon Sa'ar" brand.
There is no one on the political map in Israel whose back is more grooved and perforated than Sa'ar's, the result of Netanyahu's poison machine.
He has been absorbing the best for many years, even before Gantz entered politics.
His opinion of Netanyahu has not changed that much in the last two years.
And if so, then for the worse.
More in Walla!
Strategic location, spectacular view and luxurious apartments: the intriguing neighborhood being built in the center
In collaboration with Aora Real Estate
Benny Gantz speaks at the conference of presidents of Jewish organizations in America/Flash 90, Yonatan Zindel
His opinion on the political situation did change.
He understood that what was will not be.
He is a mega-politician who skillfully reads the migration of political continents and recognizes the vacuum between Netanyahu and Gantz.
the state-right electorate that is now parked in Gantz's parking lot, but is squinting to the sides to find a more convenient parking lot.
That's where he's headed.
Will it work?
Not clear, but that's the intention.
why now
For two cumulative reasons.
The first is the relative success of New Hope, Sa'ar's party, in the municipal elections.
There is no party that does not claim success in these elections.
Even Likud, a brand from which most of the candidates fled as if from a deadly new variant of Corona, claims to have succeeded.
But A New Hope really succeeded.
Mainly in light of the fact that it is a small party that was swallowed up by a larger one.
Sa'ar gathered 10 heads of authorities and 130 council members, more than larger and older parties than him.
Including new mayors elected by the party in places like Gedera and Pardes Hana-Karkur.
So it is true, the general public is not excited by the event, but as far as Saar is concerned, it is a sign, a kind of watershed.
Maybe even the end of the Depression.
Kind of a bouncer.
The second reason that led to Sa'ar's decision to split now, is the progress being made in the organization of Naftali Bennett and Yossi Cohen towards the establishment of more right-wing state parties.
Sa'ar did not want to wait for Bennett.
He wanted to get ahead of Bennett, stick the flag on the hill and start climbing.
In politics you have to establish facts on the ground.
The right of first movers also occasionally translates into mandates, popularity and media precedence.
Benjamin Netanyahu in the Knesset plenum.
October 12, 2023/Knesset spokeswoman, Noam Moshkowitz
Now, when Bennett sets up his right-wing state party, he will play second fiddle.
Saar is already there.
Will this in any way change the distribution of forces that has been evident in recent months, according to which Bennett is the leader in the field?
time will tell.
Saar starts from a noticeable lag position.
He hopes to balance the lag in the polls by getting ahead of schedule.
Now we come to the most important part - the ego.
Sa'ar is perhaps the most skilled politician on the political map, apart from Netanyahu.
Only Avigdor Lieberman and Aryeh Deri have his amount of experience.
He built and overthrew coalitions, crowned presidents and prime ministers.
He is the main person responsible for toppling Netanyahu after he left the Likud, founded Tikva New Hope and managed the entire operation.
Sa'ar was the one who planned the "night of the campers", he was the one who planned the establishment of the change government, he was the one who refused Netanyahu's offer to be appointed prime minister for a period of one year and three months.
Sa'ar sacrificed almost everything that could be sacrificed so that the government of change would be established and two (much) less skilled men, Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, would be prime ministers.
He did all this very deliberately and preplanned.
In retrospect, he feels like a sucker.
After paying the full price, he also lost his world in regards to public status.
From the position of the great white hope in which he settled with the establishment of a new hope, he suddenly found himself in the position of yesterday's man, a clearly unpopular politician, second fiddle to Gantz, who overnight became third fiddle.
No, it's not a storm.
He will not accept this situation.
He doesn't like being cornered.
Yesterday, a storm broke out from the corner position towards the center of the extension.
Will it come?
There is no telling.
Saar made a smart bet yesterday.
He is trying to grab the slot of the state right just before his appearance in Naftali Bennett's territory.
He is trying to convince the state-right voters who have been camped with Gantz for a long time to embark on the new path with him.
He thinks the time has come to convince the Israeli voter that Gantz is not really right-wing and Bennett does not know how to build a party, let alone a government.
His chances of succeeding in this task are unclear.
If he fails, he can always join Bennett.
Will he go so far as to return to Likud?
It is very hard to believe.
Sa'ar's move yesterday was not meant to save Netanyahu, but Sa'ar.
But we must remember that in Israeli politics everything, including everything, is possible.
Always.
More on the same topic:
Gideon Saar