As of: March 13, 2024, 5:55 a.m
By: Marcus Giebel
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Russia presents its arsenal of weapons at the annual victory parade: This military vehicle carries an intercontinental ballistic missile that can also be equipped with nuclear warheads.
© imago
The US secret services have been taking a close look at Russia.
They expect that Vladimir Putin will increasingly build nuclear weapons.
Washington – Russia boasts of its spies operating worldwide.
But their work takes place away from the spotlight.
From Moscow's perspective, the coup of overhearing and recording a conversation between German officers about the Taurus cruise missile and its possible uses in the Ukrainian war was suitable for sharing with the public.
Probably also to snub Germany and possibly divide the West a little more.
Putin and nuclear weapons: US secret services see this as Russia's hope for deterrence
What the US secret services have found out about Russia and consider to be newsworthy can now also be seen by the whole world and, in this case, read.
In the annual analysis of threats, the country of Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin, as well as its allies China, Iran and North Korea, receives their own chapter.
Accordingly, Moscow has suffered losses in the course of its self-proclaimed special operation, a level not seen since the Second World War.
There have already been 300,000 casualties and thousands of tanks and armored fighting vehicles have been destroyed.
Because of these immense setbacks, Russia will be even more dependent on its nuclear power for deterrence purposes in the coming years.
Video: Russia accuses USA of election manipulation
Russia and the nuclear threat: US spies expect to build up nuclear weapons
Putin and his entourage have long been regularly reminding their listeners of the option of a nuclear attack.
Washington assumes that Moscow will not seek direct military conflict with the USA and the other NATO states.
But the secret services also expect that Russia will modernize its nuclear weapons capabilities and “have the largest and most diverse nuclear arsenal.”
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From Moscow's perspective, only the associated deterrence can achieve its own goals in a possible conflict with NATO.
The US secret services predict that Putin will continue to develop long-range nuclear missiles and underwater delivery systems that are intended to penetrate or circumvent US missile defenses.
In addition, the range of non-strategic systems that can optionally fire nuclear warheads will be expanded and modernized.
Russia will also continue to research and develop chemical and biological weapons.
Reference is made to the assassination attempts on Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny, who has now died in captivity, in 2020 and on ex-secret agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia two years earlier.
The three were poisoned with Novichok but survived these attacks.
US warns of Russia's cyber war: "Serious threat to Western alliances"
Cyber attacks under Russian orders can also be expected in the future.
Russia sees this approach as a foreign policy lever to influence decisions of other countries.
The skills will presumably be further refined.
The U.S. intelligence community notes: “Russia will continue to pose a serious threat to Western alliances through its widespread divisive efforts, undermining U.S. global standing and sowing discord within the United States and among U.S. partners around the world.”
Does he only really feel safe with nuclear weapons?
According to US intelligence agencies, Vladimir Putin needs deterrence for his conflict with NATO.
© IMAGO / ITAR-TASS
Russia and the US presidential election: Secret services expect Moscow to exert influence
It can be assumed that Moscow sees this year's US presidential elections as an opportunity for itself.
The outcome will likely have an impact on the West's support for Ukraine, which is why Russia will probably want to influence its interests.
What is not said, but is clear: Putin is likely to instruct his spies to secretly support the likely challenger Donald Trump, because his Republicans have been blocking aid packages for Kiev for months.
Fittingly, Moscow is now accusing the USA of wanting to manipulate the upcoming elections.
According to the US intelligence community's threat report, Russian actors are generally better able to hide their signature in cyber attacks.
Technologies such as generative AI could also be used.
The options for addressing an audience without having to show your true face are constantly increasing.
Which should make the work of Russia's spies easier.
(mg)