As of: March 14, 2024, 4:27 p.m
By: Tadhg Nagel
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Split
Vladimir Putin is convinced of Russia's nuclear capabilities.
These are unique.
This is not the only area in which the Kremlin chief may have exaggerated.
Moscow – Russian President Vladimir Putin has once again drawn attention to his country's nuclear capabilities and its willingness to use them.
He particularly emphasized one aspect: the nuclear triad.
But what is the real status of Russia's nuclear deterrent power?
Since the start of the Ukraine war, Putin and other Kremlin officials have repeatedly publicly pointed to Russia's nuclear capabilities.
In some cases they were also openly threatened.
Western observers have accused Russia of nuclear saber-rattling for the comments, saying the threats were designed to deter Kiev from external support.
Vladimir Putin is confident of his country's nuclear capabilities - rightly so?
© IMAGO/Sergei Bobylev
Putin praises Russia's nuclear triad - is it "much more advanced and modern" than all others?
Now the Russian head of state has once again praised the country's nuclear arsenal.
In particular, he emphasized what he believed to be the unique nuclear triad - the military structure consisting of land-based nuclear missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles and aircraft carrying nuclear bombs and missiles.
This triad, Putin said in an interview broadcast on Russian state television on Wednesday (March 13), is “more modern than any other.”
Only his country and the USA have one, but Russia's is much more developed.
Above all, the “nuclear components” are “much more advanced and modern” and everyone knows that – because “specialists know everything,” the Kremlin chief continued.
At the same time, he reiterated that they are ready to use “weapons, including any weapons - including the [nuclear] weapons you mentioned - if it is a question of the existence of the Russian state or of undermining our sovereignty and independence.”
It's not just Russia that has these nuclear capabilities - and Putin is lagging behind in modernization
In fact, Russia and the United States possess the largest and most advanced nuclear arsenals.
However, these countries are not the only ones that have both land-based and air- and water-based nuclear missiles.
China and India also operate all the systems necessary for such a triad.
Israel neither confirms nor denies its possession of nuclear weapons;
however, the existence of nuclear weapons is often blatantly implied.
The country is known to operate nuclear-capable aircraft and land-based missiles.
With the addition of nuclear-armed submarines, it would also have a complete triad.
Russia's nuclear capabilities are not as unique as Putin makes them seem.
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What is meant by a “nuclear triad”?
The nuclear triad is a military concept that represents the three main components of a nation's nuclear deterrent.
These components are:
Land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs)
: These are ballistic missiles that can be fired from fixed launch pads on the ground and have the ability to travel long distances to hit targets around the world.
Submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SSBNs)
: Launched from submarines, these missiles provide a mobile and difficult-to-locate deterrent capability.
Submarines can hide in different seas and are therefore difficult to detect and neutralize.
Strategic bombers
: Aircraft capable of carrying nuclear weapons and penetrating deep into enemy territory to achieve their objectives.
Strategic bombers offer flexibility in target selection and operational capabilities.
The idea behind the nuclear triad is that combining these three different platforms creates a more reliable and robust deterrent capability.
Even if one of the components of a nuclear force fails or is neutralized, the other two components still remain operational, maintaining the credibility of deterrence.
And he could have exaggerated on another point too.
In a January report for the US think tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP), Russian political scientist Maxim Starchak explains why Russia's nuclear modernization program is only a success on paper.
According to Starchak, it is facing significant delays;
Replacing the Soviet-era systems will take years due to technical and financial problems.
The plans are behind schedule;
only a fraction of the goals for 2023 have been achieved.
According to Starchak, this is due to serious production and management problems that, according to him, cannot be overcome any time soon.
Rockets, but hardly any modern delivery systems - The Kremlin is now even saving on rocket tests
At first glance it looks as if Russia's attempts at modernization have been successful;
The proportion of modern (ie non-Soviet) weapons in the strategic missile forces' arsenal increased from 85 to 88 percent last year.
The Yars missile transporter replaced the Soviet-era Topol, and some missile divisions also received new weapon systems.
However, the Sarmat system promised by Putin, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Yuri Borisov, the head of the state space company Roscosmos, in 2021 has still not been delivered.
It has also been shown that nuclear rearmament is so important to the Kremlin that it is even making savings on tests.
Of the six planned test launches of the Samat rocket in 2022, only one was carried out.
It's just a matter of showing that Russia has upgraded its arsenal - whether these new systems actually work is of secondary importance.
The situation is similar with air transport systems;
Russia is behind schedule in developing a modern long-range bomber.
The Sevmash shipyard is also not keeping up with the submarines it has ordered, and the introduction of a number of new sea-based weapons has also stalled.
So Russia has missiles, but hardly any modern delivery systems.
(tpn)