As of: March 14, 2024, 11:12 a.m
By: Bona Hyun
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Split
According to the latest forecasts, the traffic light coalition has so far not been very forward-looking when it comes to spending in the budget.
That has to change, economists believe.
Berlin – According to a recent study, only 20 percent of household spending is future-oriented.
Economists from the Leibniz Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) examined federal budget spending to determine its benefits for the medium or distant future (future quota).
The result: In the 2023 budget, only one in five euros was spent on a future-oriented basis.
And it doesn't seem to be getting any better.
Economics Minister Robert Habeck (left) and Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz (right) in Berlin (symbolic image).
According to recent forecasts, traffic lights are not spending enough money on the future.
© dts news agency/imago
Expenses in the budget – is the traffic light not thinking enough about the future?
For 2019, the last federal budget before the pandemic, the study puts the future quota of the federal budget at 18.3 percent.
In 2022, the rate rose to the highest value since the survey began in 2018, namely to 20.4 percent.
The proportion has therefore fallen slightly compared to 2022.
Total expenditure in 2023 was around 458 billion euros, so according to a ZEW analysis, a good 90 billion are expenditures with a high focus on the future.
“The special funds of recent years have supported the future orientation of the federal budget.
The end of debt-financed secondary budgets after the Federal Constitutional Court's ruling therefore represents a major challenge. Future spending should therefore be strengthened in the core budget in order to prevent a long-term decline in the future ratio," explains the head of the ZEW research department "Corporate Taxation and Public Finance", Prof. Dr.
Friedrich Heinemann.
Too little spending for the future?
The federal government wants to spend money on this in 2024
The federal government has already planned fixed expenditure for the 2024 budget.
According to the federal government, the federal government can spend up to a maximum of 476.81 billion euros.
Net borrowing should be 39.03 billion euros and thus within the framework of the debt brake of the Basic Law.
The Budget Committee decided this on January 18, 2024.
Record investments of 70.5 billion euros are actually planned in the 2024 federal budget.
Among other things, 4.8 billion euros are to flow into education and research.
By far the largest budget is once again the social budget with expenditure of around 175.6 billion euros - large parts of which go to pension insurance, as well as expenditure on citizens' money, for example.
Concern about pensions: State finances are probably not future-proof
But a look at the latest forecasts from Christian Lindner (FDP) should draw particular attention to social spending.
The latest sustainability report from the Ministry of Finance states that Germany is financially less prepared for the aging of society.
The sustainability report is considered an early warning system for state finances.
It shows the consequences that aging society has on government finances - other burdens such as climate change and possible future crises are left out.
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The report assumes a significantly aging population.
Today, around one in five people in Germany is older than 66, and by 2070 it could be almost one in three.
This presents the state with significant financial problems: Because fewer citizens are working, it collects less taxes.
The same applies to social security contributions.
However, more citizens are receiving benefits, for example from pension and nursing care insurance.
According to the report, demographic-dependent expenses, for example for pensions, health, care and family, could rise from the current 27.3 percent of economic output to 30.8 percent in the best scenario - under unfavorable conditions they could even climb to 36.1 percent.
The new report is due to be presented to the cabinet on March 20th.
(bohy/dpa)