As of: March 14, 2024, 11:45 a.m
By: Lars-Eric Nievelstein
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Trade via sea routes is under severe pressure.
On the one hand, international conflicts are responsible for this.
However, climate change also plays a role.
Hamburg – The attacks by the Houthi rebels in the Red Sea continue to cause restrictions on world trade via sea routes.
Some Western countries had already launched joint peacekeeping missions to stabilize trade in the region again.
Nevertheless, some shipping companies have not yet dared to return to the region.
Another reason is force majeure – literally.
Rebels threaten world trade - that's how vulnerable the sea routes are
It was already clear at the end of January how seriously the rebel attacks in the Red Sea would affect global trade.
At that time, trading had collapsed by 42 percent within just a few weeks.
“We are very concerned about the attacks against shipping traffic in the Red Sea,” said Jan Hoffmann from the UN World Trade and Development Conference.
All shipping lines that want to sail from Europe to the Indian Ocean must pass through the so-called Bab al-Mandab Strait.
This is exactly where the Iran-backed Houthi rebels are attacking shipping.
Shipping companies are already switching to the route around the Cape of Good Hope, which is causing high additional costs and significant delays in delivery.
Container Terminal Altenwerder, Hapag-Lloyd container ship (symbolic image).
Trade via sea routes is under severe pressure.
On the one hand, international conflicts are responsible for this.
However, climate change also plays a role.
© IMAGO / Jochen Tack
In addition to the Red Sea, the Black Sea (due to the Ukraine war) and the South China Sea are also risk zones for shipping traffic.
The latter is currently the scene of ever-growing tensions between China and Taiwan.
“Supply by sea is at risk” – What makes sea routes so important
Restricted maritime trade means severe losses for the economy.
Two thirds of all German exports leave the country by ship.
Globally, it is even more than 90 percent, reported the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Protection.
In addition to the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the Strait of Gibraltar, the Suez Canal and the Strait of Malacca are also particularly important for international trade.
“The current geopolitical developments are worrying.
Even if the shipping industry is basically crisis-tested and can react flexibly to new geopolitical conditions, stability and security are indispensable in the long term.
If maritime supply chains are constantly disrupted, our supply at sea will be at risk at some point,” explained Gaby Bornheim, President of the Association of German Shipowners (VDR).
Falling or rising sea levels – both pose risks for shipping
Another factor that shipping companies have to pay more and more attention to is the climate.
Extreme weather events are currently increasing – in both directions.
The Panama Canal, for example, has often had to turn away ships or make them wait because the water level was too low.
According to the
Tagesschau
, international shipping routes on the other hand suffer more often from hurricanes.
“In an average month, almost four percent of all shipping routes are now hit by hurricanes,” she quoted IfW trade expert Vincent Stamer.
The route between Europe and East Asia is particularly affected.
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The expert predicts more intense storms in the coming years.
These would force shipping companies to either ship goods late or to look for alternative routes.
In addition to the safety risk, there is significantly higher fuel consumption.
“On a hit route between two ports, trade drops by about two percent in a hurricane month,” Stamer explained.
Finally, rising sea levels are also causing problems for shipping companies.
This influences the functionality of port facilities and seaport accesses, the
Tagesschau
quoted Jasmin Gröschl, economist at Allianz Research, as saying.
This ensures higher insurance premiums and reduces trading efficiency.
On the other hand, the melting polar ice sheets could create new shipping routes.