The level of global human development is at historic highs, already recovered from the blow caused by the pandemic and which caused a decline in 2020 for the first time in the well-being indicators - life expectancy, education and income - measured annually in a report from the Program of the UN for Development (UNDP).
However, the recovery has not been the same for everyone.
The least developed countries have hardly made any progress and remain even further away from the prosperous ones, suffocated by inflation and under threat of a debt crisis that prevents them from investing in improving the conditions of their population.
Such uneven progress has turned humanity into a pressure cooker of unrest, tension, stress, polarization and radicalization, the organization warns.
According to the study
Breaking the Stagnation: Reimagining Cooperation in a Polarized World
, published this Wednesday, all OECD members have already recovered (and surpassed) the Human Development Index (HDI) that they registered in 2019, while only 49 % of the least developed have achieved it;
the other half is still worse than it was before covid-19.
In the last 25 years, poor countries have grown faster than rich ones, so HDI progress was towards convergence.
That trend has reversed and the gap between both groups has widened.
“It is very worrying,” says Achim Steiner, UNDP administrator in a video conference with this newspaper.
“Many governments requested loans to stabilize their economies, vaccinate and implement social support programs after the
shock
of covid-19.
The result is that they have very high sovereign debt and, with interest rates at record levels, developing countries find themselves in the position of spending more on paying the interest on their debt than on their entire education or health sector," details the diplomat.
“And they already suffered from less resilient health systems and a population without savings to help themselves.”
“Their development was already low,” adds Heriberto Tapia, head of research at the UNDP Human Development Report office.
They are left further behind, contrary to the universal value of the UN Agenda 2030 of “you leave no one behind,” the expert emphasizes.
Those losers at the bottom of the list and increasingly distant from those at the top are, almost all, African.
Nine of the 10 least developed are from Africa.
Somalia, South Sudan and the Central African Republic occupy the last positions in the HDI classification.
On the other hand, Switzerland, Norway and Iceland are once again on the podium.
Spain remains at number 27 out of 193.
Nine of the ten least developed countries are in Africa
Steiner believes that there is a “lack of will” on the part of the most prosperous countries to support poor economies in facing this debt crisis, since the priority is that the international financial system does not destabilize, even if that means letting them sink. those who are lower.
“But previous HDI reports have warned the world that ignoring the growing levels of inequality within societies and between countries is very dangerous,” he recalls.
“Over time, people understand this inequity as injustice, which triggers political polarization and, very quickly, radicalization,” he warns.
The data collected in the report explains it like this.
Firstly, the UNDP authors highlight that feelings of stress, sadness and worry have increased in most territories, but especially in the least developed ones.
The researchers asked citizens about their level of anxiety in 2011 and then in 2019. The answers show that, in those eight years of difference, 3,000 million people who did not express anxiety joined the group of those who did.
The intensity of the discomfort also increased.
In both cases, quantity and intensity, the increase was more pronounced in countries with a lower HDI.
The UNDP administrator recalls the case of Sri Lanka, which went into receivership at the beginning of 2022 and could no longer import food or fuel.
“Politics moved to the streets and institutions became the target of popular frustration.”
The risk of the same thing happening in other countries is very high, he says.
For this reason, the UN monitors the financial and social situation of fifty countries at risk similar to that of Sri Lanka.
“Maybe they represent 3 or 4% of global GDP, so it does not seem that they can destabilize the global economy.
But nearly 3 billion people live in these countries, 40% of the poorest on the planet.
So we should start to imagine what it might mean for the international market if countries of 100 or 200 million people fall into a political crisis,” argues Steiner.
Democracy in crisis
“When citizens do not believe that the institutions of the State, their governments, are taking care of them properly, they begin to look for answers on the margins of the political spectrum.
The greater the insecurity, the more fear and the more willingness to listen to populist leaders, who promise better answers,” Steiner explains.
“When people feel insecure, they seek protection, but not collaboration,” adds Tapia.
And, although 90% of the population expresses “unwavering support” for democracy, according to the study data, more than half would be willing to elect populist politicians with inflammatory speeches that channel collective frustration and, often, They become authoritarian leaders who undermine democracy itself.
“They accuse other countries of unfair competition and blame them for the loss of jobs.
But when they come to power, their economic results tend to be worse,” counters the UNDP leader.
The citizen support of this type of leaders has not stopped increasing five years after five years.
Three decades ago, in the period 1994-1998, less than 40% of humanity expressed a preference for them and, after a drop in 1999-2004 (38%), the rise has been constant until the last measurement in 2017. -2022 the 50% line was exceeded for the first time.
A similar process of polarization and the rise of populism happened, according to a series of historians consulted for this report, in the 1930s, before the outbreak of the Second World War.
In this sense, Steiner believes that we should be “extremely concerned” by the current alarm signals, with the highest number of conflicts, refugees and internally displaced people since then.
Attacks on the UN are like throwing stones at a mirror
Achim Steiner, administrator of the UNDP
“When people are asked if they think their voice is taken into account, 70% answer no.
And half do not feel that they have control over their lives,” highlights Tapia.
“It is a paradoxical situation;
“We thought that with more development, the rest would be better.”
And it hasn't been like that, she explains.
“The narrative of populism is feeding the notion that each of us has to turn in on ourselves, defend our countries, economies, territories.
And defense spending is only increasing around the world.
Our neighbors become competitors, others are the enemy.
And a very toxic atmosphere is being created in international relations,” Steiner explains.
The UN itself, the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and multilateralism in general are questioned from the most extreme positions.
In Spain, for example, the far-right Vox champions this opposition to international organizations, often spreading hoaxes about the organization and its values.
“The attacks on the UN are like throwing stones at a mirror.
Because it is not an independent power, but rather the reflection of the collective will of the member states,” says Steiner.
The administrator of the UNDP, the largest UN agency, does not skimp on self-criticism, but with nuances.
“I understand people's frustration at seeing a paralyzed Security Council and the United Nations debating problems that should not occur in our world,” he reflects.
“Hundreds of millions of people don't have enough to eat, they don't have a safety net, last year alone 10 million more people had to leave their homes and live under a plastic sheet,” he lists.
“This is not the world we defend.”
However, he defends that “the United Nations is neither the trigger nor the cause” of such evils.
“In this worrying context, there are reasons for optimism,” says Tapia.
“There are countries that increase their HDI without increasing planetary pressures.”
The data indicate that some nations have reached in recent years the same level of development that others already achieved years ago, but with carbon dioxide emissions and a material footprint - the amount of raw materials used to manufacture products and services - much smaller than those.
Which means that progress is possible without destroying the environment, concludes the researcher.
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