While it is still unclear what loss of yield will result from last month's heat wave, a
new concern has already emerged in the field: the imminent return of La Niña
, the climatic phenomenon that usually brings with it a marked lack of rain and that was responsible for the biggest drought in decades last season in Argentina.
The forecasts of international organizations updated as of March indicate that there is a
77 percent probability
of its occurrence in October 2024, which would generate a lack of water for the next coarse grain campaign (2024/25), in which crops are planted. such as soybeans, corn and sunflower.
"The probability of Niña versus the probability of neutrality is 77 percent versus 20 percent, when three months ago it was 52 versus 28," they explained from the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR).
Studies on the temperature of the Pacific Ocean have shown in the last three months an evolution of this phenomenon, calculating a greater degree of cooling intensity.
Projected evolution of the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean.
Source: BCR.
The projection for October is -1.56, a value that is an indicator of
a strong La Niña
.
To find a similar cooling we have to go back to the end of 2007 and the beginning of 2008 when values of -1.5 and -1.6 were recorded.
In late 1999 and early 2000 the anomaly was -1.7.
The 26 most recognized dynamic and static models in the world coincide in this cooling for the month of October.
Thus, to date, there is a 77 percent occurrence of Niña, 20 percent of neutral year and 3 percent of Niño.
"This is
bad news for the producer
because this year, although it was El Niño, the rain only served to establish crops and develop them, but not to generate reserves to face a complicated year," said climatologist Leonardo de Benedictis in Expoagro.
The specialist warned that
the soil profiles "are very bad"
in most of the country.
"We still have two key months left, which are March and April, which usually have important rain events. But they are just two months, which
will once again be a complicated year if La Niña is confirmed
," he anticipated.
Can it fail?
Asked about the possibility that the climate model projections are wrong, BCR consultant Alfredo Elorriaga expressed: “In 2023 we have seen several changes in the intensity of the Niño phenomenon, which we have been publishing month after month.
Changes cannot be ruled out;
In fact, we talk about probabilities.
But it is true that in the monitoring we have been doing over the last seven years we noticed that changes in intensities occurred, but we have not seen a trend completely reversed."
Will there be rain in spring?
Elorriaga clarified that La Niña is not strictly synonymous with a lack of precipitation.
“There are other extra-Pacific events that are very important for Argentina, such as the activity of the Atlantic and the humidity it receives from the Amazon.
And then there are also the regional or short-scale effects that cannot be projected and are decisive in whether the rains are below or above the monthly averages," explained the climate specialist. For this reason, he remarked, "
a Niña does not "It is synonymous with below-normal rainfall for Argentina
."
This statement may perhaps bring some hope and peace of mind to Argentine producers punished by the severe drought last season and the three consecutive Niña events that caused serious damage to agriculture.
"It is important to remember that there were also Niña years in the recent past in which the rains were not below average in the warm semester," he recalled.
“Although the statistical data goes in that direction, it is still too early to ensure that the 2024/25 warm semester will be affected by a dry event, or below-average rainfall.
It is necessary to wait for the evolution of the Pacific indicators and also those of the other variables," Elorriaga insisted.
Even with a Niña event installed, extra-Pacific forcings have the potential to modify precipitation volumes, but their behavior is much more dynamic and has greater temporal variability, which makes it difficult to anticipate their presence.
The
rapid level of
ocean cooling that is being projected has been rarely seen in the last 25 years, but permanent monitoring will be necessary to know the climate charts for the next thick cycle.
The Child is leaving
As of today, “oceanic and atmospheric conditions over the Pacific remain consistent with a strong Niño event that is gradually decreasing,” said Elorriaga. Most prediction models confirm the
continuity of the Niño event until the fall
. But also show "a
rapid weakening
and a brief transition to neutrality during the winter," said the consultant.