Gilles Roucolle (Toulouse, 58 years old) has been dedicated to transport for more than 30 years.
How it changes, why and what to do to improve it.
From railways or postal services to aerospace innovations.
For 15 years he was part of the business advisory committee of the Transportation Center at Northwestern University (Illinois, USA) and is now general director for Europe of the consulting firm Oliver Wyman, strategic partner of the Trends Project.
Graduated with a master's degree in business administration and another in engineering, the mobility expert publishes the book
Transformations in Mobility on April 3.
Trends, Disruptions
and the Future of Mobility and Transportation, where he addresses the big changes and challenges in the way we move for the coming decades.
Roucolle assists EL PAÍS in the consulting firm's Madrid offices.
Question:
The title of your book includes the words “transformations”, “trends” and “future”.
What is the big change that will transform mobility in the coming decades?
Answer:
For me, there are three.
The first, the digitalization of the value chain.
Instead of having a typical chain, in which suppliers launch their products and services to the market, customers will lead the trend and changes.
Digitalization will allow a traveler to manage their trip from start to finish.
Increasingly, customers are looking for multimodal journeys and managing everything in mobile applications.
Related to that is the importance of data, the shift from people who own assets to people who own and manage data.
All asset-based providers are investing in technology so they can continue to lead that game.
The third, of course, will be decarbonization.
Q:
And what are, from a global perspective, the main challenges in facing these three changes?
A:
First of all, there is a growth [in displacement] that will continue.
Mobility is a human need and requires adapting this continuous growth, which goes hand in hand with population growth.
That's a challenge because, with increasing urbanization, for example, you limit the new infrastructure you can implement.
The second challenge is capital expenditure, the funds that will be required for the renovation or modernization of existing and some new infrastructure, which in traditional urban organizations are not as common.
There will also be challenges around regulation, which will come in the form of carbon taxes.
And supply challenges, especially when you think about decarbonization, sustainable alternative fuels, or biofuels, which are in limited supply.
Q:
And in Europe?
A:
First the financing.
For example, the development of railway infrastructure and the standardization of technology in different markets to ensure interoperability across borders, which is an important issue in the European community, requires a lot of funding, and is difficult, because railway infrastructure managers do not They necessarily see an immediate return on investment with these types of renovations.
Then the political cycles.
A fixed infrastructure can have a life cycle of 50 years, an aircraft more than 30 years, rolling stock on railways is 40 to 50 years.
But political cycles are five to ten years.
And sometimes there are stops and changes in policies and priorities.
With every change, there is a potential threat that some projects could be postponed or redirected.
Q:
There is also the energy crisis.
A:
Of course and given that we still rely heavily on traditional energies, that is a big challenge.
Also the cost of labor and social instability, because all transportation activities involve a lot of labor.
The last [European challenge] I would say is the implementation of new technologies, new mobility services, in a fragmented world, but with a lot of legacy infrastructure.
How do you make sure that new technologies, such as electric skateboards, are harmonized in an integrated way in the city of Amsterdam where you have all these channels?
In a highly complex urban infrastructure, with a lot of heritage, incorporating new services is not an easy task.
Gilles Rouculle, general director for Europe at Oliver Wyman, photographed at the consulting firm's offices in Madrid on March 13, 2024. Santi Burgos
Q:
You mentioned that mobility is inherent to human beings.
And it is also mentioned in the book that although “transport is the second source of greenhouse gas emissions,” in the coming decades we will not move less.
A:
The population is growing and the mobility needs of each individual are quite constant, even increasing.
And as a result, we're not going to travel less, we're going to travel sustainably.
The imperative is to shift to green technologies to better and more sustainably support people's inherent need to travel.
With the new generations, a change is observed.
Generation Z has a much more sustainability-oriented mindset.
Increasingly, in adolescent populations, people are observed choosing the five or six hour train trip over a one and a half hour flight.
The value of time is changing.
Q:
One of the biggest challenges to traveling more sustainably is in aviation.
A:
The aerospace industry has made many efforts in the last four decades to improve technology, with lighter aircraft, composite materials, better fuel consumption to significantly reduce consumption per flight hour.
However, demand for flights is growing at a rate that keeps total emissions virtually constant.
And the forecasts we see for aviation indicate continued growth at almost the same rate.
It is necessary to change the paradigm.
Q:
How?
A:
First of all, they are using sustainable fuels, but demand is limited.
When you look at the number of aircraft that are being produced, you look at the orders to Airbus and also to Boeing, and the factories are full and continue to produce aircraft.
Therefore, the world fleet of aircraft with current technologies is only going to increase.
The alternative is to find electric technologies or invest in research and development to find hydrogen-based aircraft, among others.
But right now, there is no technology available for long-haul flights and mass transportation.
There are some certified electric planes, but they are for short-haul flights, with a maximum of one to four passengers.
We have not yet seen the emergence of technology that can transport 100 or 200 people over long distances.
The global fleet of aircraft with current technologies is only going to increase.
The alternative is to find electrical technologies
Q:
Is introducing a per-person flight quota, as some activists and experts suggest, the solution?
A:
In a democratic world, I don't see the possibility of a government imposing a [limited] number of flights for life.
I think it's more of an individual issue.
For example, some people might decide to stop flying.
It is a possibility, deciding to travel by car and train, or deciding not to travel abroad.
But at this moment, the situation is varied.
There are people who are very conscious, for example, of not flying for a weekend, but when it comes to vacation, they will take a long-haul flight to Cancun.
We are still at a stage where people who are determined not to fly are exceptions and where it is difficult for a government to impose it.
Q:
And electric cars, are they here to stay?
A:
Electric vehicles are already here and will progressively replace vehicles with thermal engines.
It's going to take time, because there is a huge inventory of existing fleets, and it would be very expensive to make the investment needed to support a faster transition.
Some governments are facilitating these transitions through tax incentives, as we have seen in Europe.
But it is a long-term transformation.
And it is a transformation for which automobile manufacturers are already prepared and know that it will be a challenge, for their workforce, because it is specialized in thermal engines, and for downstream services, because the maintenance needs of an electric vehicle are much greater. less than those of one with a thermal engine.
Q:
What is the main challenge for the electric car industry?
A:
The network charging infrastructure.
We have seen in some places where there has been a big push by the government to introduce electric vehicles, in parts of the United States for example, people abandon the world of electric vehicles after their first experience due to the frustration of not being able to Find the necessary charging infrastructure.
That is the main barrier.
Q:
What is a
smart
road?
A:
Basically, whether with the material or with sensors, it is to provide the road infrastructure with equipment that allows better traffic management, that captures information on frequency, weights, etc., and returns it to a tower. central control system that allows better control of flows.
For example, make variations in access rates, so that these flows can be managed by moving part of the demand to times of low demand during the day.
When you think about Madrid and all those cars driven for less than an hour a day by a single individual, it gives you an idea of the unused capacity of those vehicles
Q:
And to develop this type of roads and vehicles, can artificial intelligence play an important role?
A:
It is already doing it.
There is a lot of work underway for traffic management applications, for example, to better understand patterns and adapt pricing schemes, to smooth demand and better utilize capacity.
When you think about Madrid and all those cars driven for less than an hour a day by a single individual, it gives you an idea of the unused capacity of those vehicles in number of hours of operation or number of passengers.
The main goal of the sharing economy is to develop applications that truly allow people to share the asset, increase usage and, as a result, reduce emissions.
That is backed by artificial intelligence.
Q:
One of the conclusions of Oliver Wyman's latest report on mobility is that the cities that do best are those that have chosen simpler urban transportation initiatives.
A:
In cities there are very complex [transformation] programs from an engineering perspective, but also from an execution perspective, which generate enormous delays and cost overruns.
So, if you can break down a large program into controlled pieces that are smaller, better organized, and that you implement step by step, it's a better approach than having massive programs.
Simplicity is related to a more agile and faster delivery, and therefore closer to real demand.
Q:
And what kind of small, lower-cost changes improve mobility in a city?
A:
It's the billion dollar question.
If you don't make [or want to make] large investments, it means that there is no important infrastructure program and that you need to work much better with the existing one.
I have a list.
First, develop better forecasting capabilities with artificial intelligence to be able to measure very well where people move and with what type of equipment.
Second, optimize the existing railway infrastructure, because it is still the backbone, making your regional railway and metro more reliable, safe, punctual and improving the experience for people to use it.
Then accelerate charging infrastructure, accelerate the shift to electric vehicles, because if you want to improve mobility, that also means less emissions.
Also develop new mobility services, which are added to the railway and individual [transport].
And then wrap all that with a multimodal mobility app, which everyone can have on their phone.
[In the future] the human being will not have 10 mobility applications, he will have one.
There is a race to create the app that will do everything for you.