As of: March 15, 2024, 11:41 a.m
By: Momir Takac
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Press
Split
President Vladimir Putin wants to achieve a clear victory in the Russian election.
A trump card could be the surprisingly good state of the economy.
Munich - If the economy in a country is booming, an incumbent has a good argument before elections to regain the trust of the population.
Even if the outcome of the Russian election is clear in advance, this also applies to President Vladimir Putin.
The good economic situation – despite sanctions – could give the Kremlin boss the high level of legitimacy he desires.
Vladimir Putin wants to score points in the Russian election with good economic data.
© IMAGO/Mikhail Metzel
In a contribution to the
Council on Foreign Relations,
Russia expert Thomas Graham put it aptly: “Just winning has never been enough for Putin.
He has to win in a way that shows that he remains the master of the Russian political system.” His power apparatus already ensured that the victory would be great before the election.
Russia election: Surprisingly good economic situation could play into Putin's hands
According to the Russian opposition media
Meduza,
popular interest in the Russian election was historically low.
But Putin wanted a voter turnout of between 70 and 80 percent.
The Kremlin therefore reacted with coercive measures: for example, employers loyal to the government were forced to bring employees to the polls.
The president could also be helped by good economic data, which is surprisingly good despite Western sanctions because of the war in Ukraine.
Thanks to the arms industry.
According to the Russian news agency
Tass,
gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 3.6 percent in 2023.
The International Monetary Fund expects GDP to rise 2.6 percent in 2024, reports
Business Insider
.
Unemployment is at a record low and wages are rising.
Only the inflation rate of around seven percent clouds the overall picture.
Economists: The economy in Russia is on shaky ground
David Szakonyi emphasizes that Russians also vote “with their wallets”.
Szakonyi is a professor of political science at George Washington University.
His focus is on autocracies and corruption.
“When the economy is really bad, voters tend to blame politicians.
And Putin himself has repeatedly suffered from his popularity over the last two decades as the economy faltered,” he told
Business Insider
.
In January, Putin's approval rating was 85 percent,
according to the major independent polling institute
Levada Center .
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The good economic situation could prove to be perfect timing for Putin's re-election.
According to economists, Russia's war-driven economy is on shaky ground thanks to generous government spending.
There is a lack of sustainability.
In addition, the West continues to exert pressure on Putin's gas and oil trade.
Before the Russian election, Putin portrayed the economic situation as stable and secure.
In his State of the Union address, he promised social benefits over the next six years.
(mt)