A secret poll giving the National Rally a majority in the National Assembly?
This is what the Obs magazine revealed this Friday.
In December 2023, in the midst of the debate around the immigration law, the Republicans (LR) wanted to foresee the consequences of a potential dissolution of the lower house.
The right-wing party then commissioned a survey – which was not intended to be made public – carried out among 4,000 people, at the Ipsos institute.
The study, the authenticity of which was confirmed in Le
Figaro
, reveals that the Marinist party would have obtained between 243 and 305 seats of deputies, and therefore a relative or even absolute majority (set at 289 seats).
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However, this estimate should be taken with some caution.
First of all, because a poll is only a snapshot at a given moment and above all, because the voting method for legislative elections greatly reduces the reliability of this type of projection.
It is indeed difficult to take into account the specificity of 577 elections.
In 2022, the polls had largely underestimated the weight of the RN.
A week before the 2022 legislative elections, the same Ipsos institute projected between 20 to 45 seats for Marine Le Pen's party which will ultimately obtain 89.
The collapse of the left and the Macron camp
However, this poll indicates real momentum for the RN and definitively validates the transformation of the party, long marginalized in Parliament and now favorite in the elections.
Unlike the nationalist formation which would triple its number of seats, the Macron camp would have between 117 and 165 deputies compared to 246 today.
On the left, the NUPES forces would claim between 55 and 79 parliamentarians compared to 131 currently.
Only the Republicans would maintain a roughly similar contingent (between 44 and 60 elected officials compared to 62 since 2022).
“An encouraging stabilization of our scores
,” confides Eric Ciotti’s entourage to Obs.
Within the RN, we are jubilant.
On
If the people vote, the people win!”
.
For Mathieu Lefèvre, Renaissance MP,
“all this means absolutely nothing, people do not have in mind to renew their MPs today.
We are asking a question that does not arise.
Of course we have to question the level of the RN in opinion surveys but there is no inevitability before each election
.
On the left, Paul Vannier, LFI deputy and responsible for the party's elections, calls
for "caution regarding the results which were obtained at the request of a political group and at a time when far-right ideas dominated the public debate, where opinion was polarized on subjects which specifically belong to the extreme right
.
However, the elected official castigates
“the gravediggers of NUPES”
who
“can contemplate the result of their work.
By organizing division, they created despair among the popular electorate.”