As of: March 15, 2024, 12:58 p.m
By: Bona Hyun
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Press
Split
The Russian economy is the focus of the Russian elections.
Putin is trying to paint a picture of stability.
But the numbers contradict it.
Berlin – The election in Russia will be heavily influenced by economic issues.
Janis Kluge, an expert on the Russian economy at the German Institute for International Politics and Security, told
Euronews
: "For most Russians who want to ignore the war, the economy is really the biggest issue."
President Vladimir Putin is therefore trying to paint a picture of stability and security in the economy shortly before the election in Russia, but this could be self-deception.
Elections in Russia: Putin's economic policy in the election campaign
In his State of the Union speech, which should also be viewed in the context of the elections, Putin promised social benefits for the next six years.
These are intended to support families with many children in precarious situations in particular.
He announced higher tax allowances for children and regional social programs that would be financed from the federal budget.
In addition, the minimum wage is expected to increase from the current 19,000 rubles (190 euros) per month to 35,000 rubles (350 euros) by 2030.
However, an expert expressed doubts about these promises to
fr.de
and emphasized that Putin is primarily trying to show understanding for the concerns of the “normal” Russian population.
Elections in Russia: Putin wants to stay in office.
But Moscow's economy cannot afford that.
© Mikhail Metzel/dpa
Russia's economy before the elections: Inflation apparently an important issue
According to Kluge, inflation is a particularly important issue for the Russian population.
Although the central bank is trying to reduce inflation to four percent over the course of the year, it is currently still well above that, at 7.4 percent (as of February 2024).
Still, Putin seems happy to cling to the idea that Western sanctions are doing little damage to the Russian economy and that the economy is recovering despite the sanctions.
The Russian statistics office published positive figures in mid-February showing GDP growth of 3.6 percent in 2023.
But Putin must be aware of the impact of the sanctions.
Russia's economy is the focus of the elections - concerns about results and forecasts
If Putin remains in office for another six years, he will likely face the serious long-term consequences of sanctions.
Companies are facing a shortage of workers.
According to
Euronews,
hundreds of thousands of men left the country after fighting began in Ukraine to avoid mobilization.
Hundreds of thousands more have signed military contracts.
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An even bigger concern could be the collapse in oil and gas business, as the West wants to continue to put pressure on Putin's oil and gas trade.
In its latest sanctions package, the USA blacklisted Putin's ailing ghost fleets and also wants to take action against third countries that circumvent Russia's sanctions.
This could lead to countries like India turning away from the Russian oil business.
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Putin has shifted the economy to a “war economy.”
Economists see this as the main reason for the strong growth: massive Russian military spending and high payments to volunteer soldiers are stimulating the economy.
However, signs of an “overheated” Russian economy could dampen optimism.
Economy relevant in elections in Russia – will Putin be re-elected?
Despite everything, Russia apparently remains hopeful.
Economics professor Natalia Subarewitsch has already calmed fears of a “quick collapse.” “It definitely won’t be.” The increased food prices are also bearable for some people.
The rising prices “of course worry me – like any consumer, I see them rising,” Russian passerby Fedotov, who works in education, told
Euronews
.
“It has to do with the times we live in and they will pass.”
For Putin, the positive perception of Russia's economic state could be an advantage if he runs for the presidency again.
Economic stability “is a signal with which Putin can show the elites that he is still able to mobilize the masses,” said Kluge.
But “it has to be real and not just a manipulated number.”
The editor wrote this article and then used an AI language model for optimization at her own discretion. All information has been carefully checked.
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