As of: March 15, 2024, 2:47 p.m
By: Teresa Toth, Lennart Schwenck
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Our summers are getting hotter and hotter.
A recent study shows that a natural phenomenon in the Arctic North Atlantic is responsible.
Bremen – Last year’s summer was the hottest since records began.
Temperatures in Germany cracked the 30 degree mark several times.
And Germany was already hit by extreme heat waves in 2022.
The forecasts for the upcoming summer look very similar - it could be even warmer, with even fewer cloudy rainy days.
Climate change is primarily to blame for the higher temperatures in summer
This is what a study by the European Geoscience Union suggests.
The reason for the expected hot days in the next few months is not very encouraging: climate change is to blame.
Its effects can now be felt everywhere - whether among cocoa producers in Africa, especially in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, among the bleaching corals of the Great Barrier Reef or on the coasts of northern Germany.
A German coastal town is even in danger of sinking due to climate change.
Summers are expected to become even hotter in the future.
© Victor Lisitsyn/imago
The industrialized countries, which are blamed for the massive emissions of CO2, are triggering a global chain reaction commonly referred to as the greenhouse effect.
This could lead to Europe, including Germany, experiencing high temperatures in summer.
However, the origin of this phenomenon lies in much more northern regions.
The freshwater anomalies in the North Atlantic are contributing to our summers becoming warmer
The study, entitled European summer weather linked to North Atlantic freshwater anomalies in preceding years, establishes a link between the loss of ice in the Arctic and increased weather extremes in the middle widths.
A possible oceanic connection is thought to exist, as melting sea ice and glaciers leads to increased freshwater inflows into the North Atlantic.
These freshwater anomalies could play a significant role in influencing Europe's summer climate.
The ice in Antarctica is also disappearing more and more.
Warming of Arctic sea ice is occurring at a rate twice the global average, resulting in a dramatic decline in sea ice volume.
Similar significant losses have also been recorded in land ice, particularly in Greenland, leading to increased release of freshwater into the North Atlantic.
Previous research has identified statistical links between increased sea ice loss at high latitudes and an increase in extreme weather events at midlatitudes.
However, the exact mechanisms underlying these connections are not yet fully understood, according to the study.
Not only warmer summers – cold anomalies in winter are also possible
There is a possibility that anomalies in freshwater content in the North Atlantic could set in motion a deterministic process that is irreversible.
This process could lead to cold anomalies and storms in the winter, as well as heatwaves and droughts the following summer.
However, the exact role of these freshwater anomalies in triggering this process is not yet fully understood and requires further research.
Some regions could become uninhabitable in the future due to the warming earth.
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In response to a query from
IPPEN.MEDIA
, Kristina Fröhlich from the German Weather Service (DWD) explained: “Currently the operational centers, like the DWD, do not have good forecast quality for the summer over Europe.
Intensive research is being carried out into ways to improve this, both in improving the models and in the statistical follow-up of the predictions.”
Fröhlich adds: “We cannot currently include the freshwater input from melting glaciers in our calculations, but melting sea ice makes a contribution.
There is also great uncertainty about how good the ocean models are in terms of describing salinity and density in the sea, also because of the short observation time series.”
Summers are getting warmer - but the study also has a positive aspect
The study brings at least one positive aspect: the connection between summer weather in Europe and freshwater anomalies in the North Atlantic may open new avenues for improving weather forecasting.
More thorough detection and quantification of these anomalies in climate models could improve the long-term forecasting ability of European summer weather.
Given the expected increase in freshwater anomalies over the next few decades, it is crucial to understand their potential as climate change drivers and integrate them into future prediction models.
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