As of: March 16, 2024, 8:13 p.m
By: Tanja Banner
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Tectonic plates beneath Gibraltar could trigger an Atlantic Ring of Fire.
The consequences?
A completely changed Atlantic.
Lisbon/Mainz – When the supercontinent Pangea broke up into smaller continents around 180 million years ago, the Atlantic was formed.
To humanity it seems as if it has always been there and will always be there in the future.
But that is a misconception: oceans are “born”, expand and close again.
This “Wilson cycle” extends over several hundred million years.
So-called subduction zones play a crucial role in this.
They are areas where one tectonic plate sinks beneath another.
This leads to bending and cracking of the tectonic plate – a brutal process.
Subduction zones are often associated with earthquakes or volcanic activity, as shown by the Pacific Ring of Fire.
This surrounds the Pacific on three sides.
Research has shown that a tectonic plate in the Pacific is being torn apart.
Subduction zone is said to lead to an “Atlantic Ring of Fire”.
A recent study now suggests that a subduction zone beneath the Strait of Gibraltar will migrate into the Atlantic in the future - a so-called "subduction invasion".
This could lead to the creation of a kind of “Atlantic Ring of Fire,” believes a Portuguese-German research team that has created 3D models.
From a geological perspective, according to the research group, this will happen “soon” – in about 20 million years.
The Strait of Gibraltar separates Spain (top) from Morocco (bottom).
What you don't see: According to the study, a subduction zone squeezes from the Mediterranean (right) into the Atlantic (left).
(Archive image) © imago/spacephotos com
The study, led by João Duarte (University of Lisbon), was published in the journal
Geology
.
He emphasizes how important new technical possibilities were for the work.
“Subduction invasion is inherently a three-dimensional process that requires advanced modeling tools and supercomputers that were not available a few years ago.
We can now simulate in great detail the formation of the Gibraltar Arc and also how it might develop in the distant future,” explains Duarte.
Gibraltar bow is moving into the Atlantic – and could close it
The westward expansion of the Gibraltar Arc has slowed over the past five million years, leading many researchers to believe that its movement may have come to a complete halt.
“We do not share this assessment,” emphasize researchers Boris Kaus and Nicolas Riel from the University of Mainz in a statement.
“With our computer simulations, we can understand the development of the Gibraltar Arc in a physically correct way and assess what fate awaits it in the future,” said the two co-authors of the study.
The international research team assumes that the rate of expansion of the Gibraltar Arc will initially slow further and almost come to a standstill in around 20 million years.
Then, however, acceleration should begin.
The subduction zone is expected to spread into the Atlantic in a semicircle and form a new Atlantic subduction system, similar to the Pacific Ring of Fire.
Since subduction zones return oceanic crust to the Earth's mantle, the research team suspects that this could be the start of the closure of the Atlantic.
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Mechanism that triggers subduction in oceans
“There are two other subduction zones on the other side of the Atlantic – the Lesser Antilles in the Caribbean and the Scotia Arc near Antarctica.
However, these subduction zones entered the Atlantic Ocean several million years ago.
The Gibraltar study is invaluable because it allows us to observe the process in its early stages, as it happens,” says study leader Duarte.
Geological look into the future of the earth
One day there will be a supercontinent on Earth again, research says.
But Pangea Ultima will probably not be life-friendly, it is feared.
Scientists also assume that the continent of Africa will one day be torn in two - this could create a new ocean.
The study suggests that subduction invasion is likely a common mechanism that triggers subduction in oceans and thus plays a fundamental role in the geological evolution of our planet.
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