As of: March 17, 2024, 1:01 p.m
From: Foreign Policy
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The European elections are just around the corner - and the populists are planning a frontal attack: Critics see the foundations of the EU at risk.
The 2024 European elections are approaching – for the first time, right-wing populists and extremists could get a quarter of the seats.
The election result could have consequences for the EU.
Attention is also directed at the conservative EPP.
Experts warn that the “Green Deal”, open borders and support for the war in Ukraine may be in question.
This article is available for the first time in German - it was first published by
Foreign Policy
magazine on March 13, 2024 .
Brussels - As 400 million Europeans prepare to elect 720 EU parliamentarians in June, polls are predicting big gains for right-wing populists.
The European Parliament is expected to have a solid right-wing majority for the first time since its direct election in 1979.
The think tank “European Council on Foreign Affairs” (ECFR) recently stated that this would mean a “sharp shift to the right” for Europe.
The consequences for European politics are already becoming apparent.
The center-right European People's Party (EPP) and the left-wing Party of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) are expected to finish in first and second place again, although both could lose a handful of seats.
The EU's far-right factions, Identity and Democracy (ID) and the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), will improve their results mainly at the expense of the Liberals and Greens.
According to the ECFR, the populists are expected to win the most votes in nine countries, including Austria, the Netherlands, France, Hungary, Poland and Italy.
They could emerge as strong second or third-place finishers in nine other countries, including Spain and Germany.
AfD and FPÖ, Orbán, Meloni and Le Pen – right-wingers in the EU expect growth in the European elections
The ID, which includes the main anti-immigrant and Eurosceptic parties in Germany (Alternative for Germany or AfD), France (Rassemblement Nationale) and Italy (Lega), is likely to become the third largest faction in the EU after the June 6-9 elections -Become Parliament.
The EKR is led by Giorgia Meloni, Italy's prime minister and leader of the post-fascist Fratelli d'Italia party - and is home to Sweden's Sweden Democrats and Poland's Law and Justice (PiS) party.
If the Fidesz party of authoritarian Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, which was a member of the EPP until a few years ago, joins the ECR as expected, the right-wing extremists could claim a quarter of the total seats.
Political machinations already appear to be underway among some established parties to seek cooperation with this new powerful bloc.
Experts say that if the EPP, the strongest conservative party in the EU, accepts far-right politicians into its ranks or adopts their policies, as it has recently been accused of doing, the balance of power in Europe will shift decisively to the right, which is not will only have a significant impact on the EU's common agenda, but could also influence the way member states decide on critical policies.
“I think in our campaign we will ask the EPP to be pragmatic and to choose the alternative to a center-left majority,” Marco Campomenosi, a Lega politician and head of the Italian delegation in the ID, told Foreign
Policy (FP)
.
Right-wing populists on the rise in the EU: experts expect massive consequences
Experts say such a shift will have a significant impact on the EU as a whole, calling into question its recent promises to pursue humane migration policies and establish a rule of law at home that promotes democratic checks and balances.
A strengthened far-right camp could also keep coordination of a common defense policy to a minimum in the face of the looming threat from Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Ursula von der Leyen and Volodymyr Selenskyj in February in Kiev - Giorgia Meloni in the background on the left.
© IMAGO/Pool/Ukrainian Presidentia/Zuma Wire
The flagship of the EU climate framework, the Green Deal, which aims to achieve zero carbon emissions by 2050, is also at stake: the populists want to get the EU to uphold its commitment to the development of renewable energy and other climate policies undermine.
Charlie Weimers, a member of the far-right Sweden Democrats who support Sweden's center-right minority government, said his party's priority is to push for a "Migration Pact 2.0," with tougher measures to stop the influx of immigrants than already in place new migration pact listed.
“We have to stop the asylum system,” he told
FP
in a telephone interview.
“We need a breathing space to deal with the immigrants already here, otherwise we will never be able to catch up.”
“Green Deal” should be “gone” after the European elections: What the right-wing populists are demanding
Lega's Campomenosi said "it's not about the money" but about the "trouble" caused by immigrants.
According to the new migration pact, an EU member state that refuses to accept an asylum seeker should pay a sum of 20,000 euros to an EU fund.
“If there are too many immigrants, they cannot be integrated,” he added.
Three far-right MPs told
FP
that with a larger number of MPs in Parliament they could put more pressure on the European Commissioner to scrap or water down the Green Deal.
It “has to go,” Joachim Kuhs, head of the AfD delegation to the EU, which is considered the second strongest party in Germany in polls, told
FP
in his office in parliament.
“It should be abolished and replaced,” Weimers added.
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The liberal groups say the EPP has strengthened the far right by adopting their policies and forming alliances in individual member states: Pedro Marques, deputy leader of the S&D group, said the EPP parties have undermined the cordon sanitaire, which was set up to keep right-wing extremists away from governments and important positions.
“The EPP is dancing with the extreme right,” he added, with serious consequences for the future of the Union.
The “cordon sanitaire” against the hard right is crumbling in many places in Europe
The cordon sanitaire is crumbling in many European countries.
In Italy the right-wing extremists are in power, in Sweden the center-right government is supported by the right-wing extremists.
In Austria, the center-right and right-wing extremists are ahead of everyone else in the polls ahead of the national elections.
In France, Marine Le Pen is ahead in the polls, and in Germany the conservatives have hinted at future cooperation at regional level with the far-right AfD.
The legitimization of the right-wing extremists is not limited to the member states.
Ursula von der Leyen, EPP member and EU Commissioner, alluded to Meloni's inclusion in her group.
She said it is not yet clear which parties will remain in the EKR after the elections and which will leave the EKR and join the EPP.
Hans Kundnani, author of a book called “Eurowhiteness,” said the boundaries between the ID, the ECR and the EPP have always been “very fluid.”
“As soon as Meloni indicated that she would not interfere in the eurozone, that she would not be pro-Russian, the centrist pro-European EPP said, that's great, we don't mind,” Kundnani said.
“The center-right has no problem at all with right-wing extremists, it only has a problem with those who are Eurosceptic.
Has von der Leyen legitimized the right-wing populists?
Von der Leyen often backtracked on important political measures in order to appease the right-wing extremists, say experts.
Especially in the last few months, when farmers protested against the provisions of the Green Deal, the right-wing extremists found another topic to mobilize against the established parties.
During the election campaign, von der Leyen quickly gave in and made several concessions to the agricultural sector that will impact the 2050 net zero target.
According to Kundnani, the best example of how the EU Commissioner confirmed the worldview of the right-wing extremists was the creation of the position of EU Commissioner to promote a European lifestyle.
“The big theme of the European right-wing extremists is that immigrants threaten European civilization,” he said.
When von der Leyen created the post, she portrayed “immigration as a threat to the European way of life,” thereby legitimizing the right-wing extremists.
Ukraine instead of Putin, no exit from the EU: right-wing populists say they are moderate before the EU elections
It's unclear whether adopting the far-right's arguments will help the center right keep its traditional voters away from the populists - but there's an emerging consensus that it strengthens the radical right in the long run.
The right-wing extremists, for their part, have softened their own positions on many issues in order to appeal to voters who are more centrist.
The right-wing extremist parties are no longer calling for leaving the EU, but only for reform from within.
They say they support Ukraine, not Putin.
Many far-right parties are in favor of reintroducing border controls, which violate the EU's founding principle of the free movement of people and goods.
Last year, the AfD called the EU a “failed project,” while the Sweden Democrats said they had “good reasons to seriously reconsider our membership of the union.”
The suspicion that members of the right-wing extremist parties have sympathies for Putin persists.
Last month, Lega leader Matteo Salvini was evasive when asked whether he blamed Putin for the sudden death of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny.
Before the European elections: Social Democrats warn – right-wing populists “want benefits, but not the costs”
The ID and ECR parliamentarians
FP
spoke to explicitly rejected von der Leyen's proposal to appoint a separate defense commissioner to improve coordination between member states on defense issues.
“We are saying that we want to manage immigration in a humane way, we can protect the borders better,” added Marques of the S&D.
Referring to the far-right's call to outsource the vetting of asylum seekers, he said it was difficult to find credible partners.
“We made this agreement with the Tunisian authorities, but when we tried to go there to check the conditions and see how the European money is being spent, they said we don't want your agreement anymore.
These have to be credible partnerships.”
The centre-left S&D considers the moderate positions of the far-right parties to be a farce.
They believe that the far right simply wants the benefits of membership in the Union, rather than the costs that are sometimes associated with upholding their values.
“They want an EU without the rule of law, without humanity,” said Marques.
“This is not what we built after World War II.
They want to turn the EU into something it is not.
Their values are not European.”
About the author
Anchal Vohra
is a Brussels-based columnist at
Foreign Policy
, writing about Europe, the Middle East and South Asia.
She has reported on the Middle East for the Times of London and worked as a television correspondent for
Al Jazeera English
and
Deutsche Welle
.
Previously based in Beirut and Delhi, she has reported on conflict and politics from over two dozen countries.
Twitter (X): @anchalvohra
We are currently testing machine translations. This article was automatically translated from English into German.
This article was first published in English in the magazine “ForeignPolicy.com” on March 13, 2024 - as part of a cooperation, it is now also available in translation to readers of the IPPEN.MEDIA portals.