As of: March 17, 2024, 9:32 p.m
By: Karsten Hinzmann
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Armed with nuclear weapons: a Russian Su-34 fighter jet.
This type of aircraft is also stationed in Crimea and provides an indication that Russia could use Crimea as a launching point for nuclear attacks.
(Symbolic photo) © IMAGO / Depositphotos
Every lost ship makes Russia more nervous: Sergei Shoigu has now ordered to reinforce Crimea - the use of nuclear weapons becomes possible.
Simferopol - Despite the constant threat, the Russian sailors may not have had the slightest idea what was racing towards them in the dark of the night.
A video compilation from Ukrainian intelligence sources suggests that at most a sailor opened fire at the last second.
But that no longer had any meaning anyway: the Magura 5 surface drone hit the port side of the Caesar Kunikov.
The Russian warship was probably hit by two more drones - the ship sank on February 14 off the coast of the Crimean Peninsula.
Another strike by Ukrainian defenders against Vladimir Putin's Black Sea Fleet.
Now Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has visited Crimea and called for strengthening its defense, as
Ukrainska Pravda
writes.
Shoigu urged his subordinates to “conduct constant training both during the day and at night to counter enemy terrorist attacks” and to “increase the survivability of ships and the security of infrastructure in the area of responsibility of the state.”
He also ordered the installation of additional firearms, including heavy machine gun systems, to destroy attack drones.
Crimea still has what it takes to become a decisive theater in the Ukraine war, as military economist Marcus Keupp
said in an interview with the
Tagesschau
: “Crimea is not only the logistical center, it is also the military powerhouse of the entire Russian operation against Ukraine, and that's why it will be the grand finale of the war and possibly faster than some people expected." The Russian efforts seem to prove this: The Washington
Post
claims to have precisely located the Russian fortifications in images from the
Maxar
satellite service and now adds more than 30 kilometers of trenches in Crimea.
Ukraine's naval counteroffensive: the gradual destruction of Russia's Black Sea Fleet
According to Russian media, the military has more than 200 objects spread across the peninsula: air bases, ammunition depots or barracks.
Tens of thousands of soldiers are reportedly stationed there.
The port of Sevastopol is the base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
Everywhere the Russian invading army had apparently suffered enormous losses in a storm of the century without any enemy action.
The strike against the patrol boat Caesar Kunikov was Ukraine's latest prank against the Russian navy.
Crimea is a festering wound for both sides.
The defenders at sea are almost making up for Ukraine's failed counter-offensive on land - with the gradual destruction of Russia's Black Sea fleet, as
Zeit Online
judges: a third of it has been destroyed or damaged, the Ukrainian military said.
24 Russian warships and one submarine were put out of action.
Independent observers gave a slightly lower figure of 20 ships and one submarine.
The Crimean Tatars are raising the price of the occupation for Russia to almost unaffordable heights with their partisan warfare.
Russia's Humiliation of the Crimean Tatars: Trigger for the Rise of the Atesh Partisans
By cutting off land routes to Crimea and attacking supply points with long-range weapons, one could try to make it untenable for Russia to hold Crimea, said military expert Gustav Gressel on
ZDF
, for example .
The conflict began in Crimea in 2014, and it could end there at some point - or it could mean a rude awakening for NATO.
The partisan movement Atesh (“Fire” in Crimean Tatar), founded in the summer of 2022, probably played a crucial role in the Ukrainian successes in Crimea.
The forced recruitment of people from Crimea into Moscow's armed forces offered the emerging resistance movement a great opportunity to undermine the Russian army from within, writes Elina Beketova of the Center for European Policy Analysis.
Russia is now feeling the effects of this.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly under pressure in Crimea; he wants to save his ambitious goals for the future: to become an international maritime power and ruler of the Black Sea.
The Black Sea is the interface between the Russian Federation and NATO.
The German frigate captain Göran Swistek writes for the think tank
Foundation for Science and Politics
: “Russia has been pursuing its interest in the Black Sea for centuries in ice-free and, if possible, warm access to the vital sea routes around Europe all year round, which underpins its claim as a sea power.” The Ukrainian naval drones and the reconnaissance of the partisans dispute this claim.
Putin's reinforcement of the Crimean occupiers by 2025: alarm signal for NATO
Long before the start of the war in Ukraine, the magazine
European Security and Defense (ESD)
had discussed a paper that sought to show “how Russia, in violation of international treaties, is transforming this once-thriving resort into a modern military base and even using it for the use of prepared nuclear weapons.”
The 20-page document emerged as part of the Forum for Security Co-operation (FCS) of the Vienna-based OSCE (Organization for Security Co-operation in Europe).
According to
ESD,
in 2020 the Russian armed forces in occupied Crimea consisted of 31,500 soldiers - significantly more than before the occupation of Crimea, which at that time was only recruited from members of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
The
ESD
source, even without any indication of a military conflict at the time, assumed that the number of Russian troops would increase 1.5 times by 2025 to enable Putin to launch comprehensive military operations in the southwest, at sea and on the coast coast and in the airspace over the Azov and Black Seas up to the Mediterranean.
In this respect, the troop reinforcements could have indicated an escalation of the annexation of Crimea and could have forced NATO to act quickly.
Moscow's flagship Moskva: former spearhead of Crimea's nuclear armament
According to
ESD
defense correspondent Georg Mader, this early document showed evidence “that air and sea-based assets for the delivery of Putin's nuclear weapons had been shifted to Crimea, while the old Soviet-era storage infrastructure near Feodosiya and Sevastopol was supposedly being renovated “ – for example, the Baherove airfield near Kerch.
In this context, Mader recalls that the Russian Federation unilaterally terminated the 1997 agreement with Ukraine on the status of the Black Sea Fleet.
In accordance with Article 5 of this agreement, the Russian Federation had undertaken not to possess nuclear weapons from the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation stationed on the territory of Ukraine.
Moscow could still have argued that Crimea is no longer part of Ukraine.
Nevertheless, given the geopolitical situation in Crimea, the possible reinforcement of the armed forces with nuclear weapons fundamentally calls into question the multilateral ban on nuclear weapons and puts NATO under pressure to act - corresponding threats from the Russian side have now been made sufficiently.
Russia has long since stationed various delivery systems and other means with which nuclear weapons can be delivered to Crimea.
These included the now-sunk cruiser Moskva with its Vulcan missile system, the guided-missile destroyer Smetliwy with the Rastrub-B launch system and a Su-24M bomber unit capable of carrying tactical nuclear weapons.
Other Russian aircraft that had been stationed in Crimea for some time for training purposes included the Tu-22M3 medium-range bombers and the Su-34 long-range tactical bombers.
The danger of using nuclear weapons is no coincidence - with the sinking of the Caesar Kunikov, Russia's fuse could have burned out - Shoigu's angry speech about the porous defense of the Crimean fortifications may be seen as an indication of this.
In fact, experts continue to debate the timing of Russia's possible use of tactical nuclear weapons;
They also consider intelligence documents that are up to 20 years old to be valid evidence of the behavior of the Russian military in the subsequent battles in the Ukraine War, as security expert Ulrich Kühn from the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg told
ZDF
;
namely that little has changed in the basic considerations of Russian military strategists to this day.
“The moment the front collapses, things become tricky,” says Kühn.
In this situation, Russia is using the threat of nuclear weapons as a deterrent to influence its opponents.
In his opinion, retaking Crimea could also be a trigger point that would provoke the use of nuclear weapons.
(
kahin
)