As of: March 17, 2024, 4:19 p.m
By: Johannes Welte
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A swarm earthquake leaves residents of the supervolcano near Naples trembling.
Tremors that could be harbingers of an eruption occur directly beneath residential areas.
Pozzuoli – The situation in the supervolcano of the Phlegraean Fields in southern Italy is getting worse again.
On Thursday evening (March 8th) a seemingly never-ending chain of tremors began.
By Friday evening at 10:51 p.m., over 60 earthquakes had been registered by the National Institute of Geochemistry and Volcano Research (INGV).
Then the swarm of quakes stopped for the time being, as if controlled by magic.
Clouds of sulfur vapor rise behind the houses of Pozzuoli.
© IMAGO/napolipress
The first quake had a magnitude of 1.5.
On Friday night and during the day, the shocks became stronger, reaching a magnitude of 2.3.
In some places the floor shook three times a minute.
The epicenters were between three kilometers and 200 meters deep, and sometimes there were even tremors on the surface.
Supervolcano in Italy is bubbling: the ground level is bulging further and further upwards
Individually, the tremors are not violent, but they show that the ground above the supervolcano is bulging more and more.
According to INGV, the level of the port city of Pozzuoli has risen by 1.22 meters since November 2005.
Since the water is becoming shallower at the same time, a ferry ran aground in the harbor on Wednesday.
The red circles show the earthquakes of the past 24 hours.
© INGV
The bulge is attributed to a magma chamber around three kilometers deep that heats the groundwater above.
You have to imagine it like a gigantic steam boiler from which excess pressure is repeatedly released; these are the small, incessant earthquakes.
But there are fears that the lid on this huge steam boiler will burst at some point.
Phreatic Explosion: Like a huge steam boiler whose lid will eventually fly off
The result would be a so-called phreatic explosion, which would be catastrophic in the middle of a residential area.
Around 460,000 people live in the red zone, the area most at risk.
An eruption on the uninhabited New Zealand volcanic island of White Island in December 2019 showed how dangerous a phreatic explosion can be.
22 people died while visiting the island on a boat trip.
If there had been settlements there, the consequences of the scorching hot ash clouds would have been devastating.
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The explosion of New Zealand's White Island volcano killed 22 people.
© Mai Keer¡¤xiede via www.imago-images.de
A lava eruption could also follow if the phreatic explosion exposes the lava vein.
Some researchers also believe that the lava is directly causing the bulge, meaning it is rising more and more and there could be a large magma eruption.
Such a “Plinian” eruption would also be devastating in residential areas, as a simulation by the INGV showed.
Some researchers are even warning of a super-eruption like the one that occurred 39,000 years ago, which wiped out all life within a radius of 80 kilometers.
In addition, severe earthquakes that cause buildings to collapse are possible at any time.
Swarm earthquakes may herald an explosion: earthquake centers are under inhabited areas
What is worrying is that the current swarm earthquake that could herald this phreatic explosion has two focal points: One is the eastern urban area of Pozzuoli, where there are many residential buildings.
The other focal point is the Monte Olibano hill, where the Italian Air Force Military Academy is located.
Monte Olibano is a cooled lava dome that is around 3,800 years old.
Both areas are in close proximity to the Solfatara volcanic crater, which is home to hot sulfur springs and fumaroles emitting hot gas.
The hot springs and fumaroles of Pisciarelli bubble at the eastern foot of the Solfatara.
Different values are measured at both locations.
Researchers discover disturbing signs at hot springs in Italy
The INGV's monthly report for February, published on Friday, also raises concerns that the situation in the supervolcano is worsening: "The composition of the fumaroles and the monitored parameters indicate the continuation of the multi-year trends of heating and pressure increase of the hygrothermal system," it says .
This refers to the heated water underground.
The Phlegraean Fields near Naples show increased activity.
© IMAGO/Antonio Balasco
Further: "The report on carbon dioxide and methane shows an increase in values compared to previous periods, confirming the trend of increase." Also the time series of surface temperatures recorded by infrared cameras in the rising areas of Pisciarelli and Solfatara showed in February 2024 higher values than the average of previous months, reports the INGV.
On site, people fluctuate between panic, fatalism and sarcasm: “I'm scared and shaking,” writes one woman on Facebook.
“The authorities should do something,” writes another.
The answers to this: “Do you want to beat up the volcano?” Another user writes: “You can ask the carabinieri if they want to arrest him.” Finally, one user says: “I think it's time to pack your bags .
I hate to say it, but it’s never been as bad as it is now.”