This is a very punctual element showing that it is hot.
At a minimum it reflects the level of temperatures in recent days.
The national thermal indicator has never been as high on March 15 and 16 in the history of records as on Friday and Saturday.
This indicator is an average of temperatures calculated using thirty weather stations installed throughout the territory.
Their distribution allows you to have a representative view of the weather in mainland France.
The largest French cities are present there, such as Paris, but also less dense areas, such as the Cognac-Châteaubernard resort.
Météo France specifies that this indicator has been calculated since 1947.
13.48°C Friday, 13.3°C Saturday
On Friday it rose to 13.48°C compared to 13°C for the previous highest level.
A record for this index does not necessarily mean that maximum temperature records have been broken.
But it shows that overall, across the whole country, it has never been so hot on March 15th.
On Saturday, the situation is similar with a national thermal indicator which reaches 13.3°C.
In the case of March 16, a precedent exists in 1977. The record is therefore equaled without being beaten, according to Infoclimat, which is based on data provided by Météo France.
The current situation cannot be explained only by the level of temperatures during the day, which exceeds the seasonal averages by several degrees, or even by almost ten in certain areas of the South-West such as the Gers.
It also depends on the level of temperatures at night in places.
In the case of Paris, François Jobard, meteorologist at Météo France, pointed out on Saturday the fact that the capital has already experienced a 12th night above 10°C since the start of the year.
The previous record dated from 2020 with 8 nights where the minimum remained above 10°C between January 1 and March 16.
Such levels statistically correspond to nights in early May, knowing that the averages now take into account the 2010 decade which includes the hottest years since records have existed.
During the night from Saturday to Sunday, a 13th night above 10°C was added with a low point of 10.3°C at the official Météo France station located at Parc Montsouris.
Since the start of the year, the number of nights with a minimum temperature of at least 10°C in #Paris Montsouris exceeds ten (12 counting today).
Previous record as of March 16: 8 in 2020. The next nights will remain mild.
10°C = 1991-2020 average in early May.
pic.twitter.com/2rrv9Aw8Ba
— François Jobard (@Francois_Jobard) March 16, 2024
The national thermal indicator, taken in isolation, especially over a day or a short period, is in no way an index of global warming.
It only testifies to the weather at any given moment.
Over a longer period of time, however, it makes it possible to identify trends.
This graph reporting its value since January 1 shows that it is overwhelmingly higher than the season averages.
These are represented by the black curve.
The cold period of January, which may have left its mark as this phenomenon becomes rarer, stands out as an anomaly in the middle of a higher trend, even clearly above the averages.
Moreover, January, taken in its entirety, was nevertheless part of a historically long and ongoing series of months with average temperatures above normal.
Infoclimate
The national heat indicator is expected to remain above average for at least a good part of next week, if not all of it.
A cooling seems to be taking place from the weekend.
Temperatures could then return below seasonal averages.
But it is still too early to be completely certain.