(by Paolo Verdura) The upcoming warm season and stocks still well above 50% in Europe are not enough to bring down the price of methane.
Last Friday the Amsterdam market (Ttf) reached a new high since March 6, with an increase of 3.75% to 27.03 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) on the previous day's close.
The basis for this late-season flare-up is the increased demand for gas in Asia, due to the increases in coal recorded in recent weeks, just as gas prices were falling.
A favorable dynamic that was triggered in Europe thanks also to the regularization of supplies: primarily thanks to the reduction in imports from Russian gas which fell from 40% in 2021, with over 150 billion cubic meters, to 43 billion cubic meters in 2023 (8%), with the zeroing expected by the EU by 2027.
Driving gas consumption in Asia - experts explain - is lower Co2 emissions, which according to analysts generate savings in terms of green certificates for the industry.
For this reason, precisely in Asia, analysts predict an increase in thermoelectric energy produced with gas, and this will inevitably continue to influence demand.
However, the situation remains under control for now.
Prices, regardless of the fluctuations, remain at the levels of November 2021. On the 24th of that month, gas closed at the Ttf in Amsterdam at 26.79 euros per megawatt hour.
Since then, a lower price was reached only on February 22nd, at 23.29 euros, and the following day at 23.06 euros.
From that day onwards prices rose to the high of March 15th.
But a new change of direction cannot be ruled out, so much so that Wood Mackenzie analysts predict a drop from 8.4 to 6.7 dollars (from 7.71 to 6.15 euros) per Mbtu (millions of British thermal units) on the New York market. York.
However, precisely due to the greater demand for gas in Asia, a drop of 17 billion cubic meters in LNG (liquefied natural gas) imports is expected in Europe compared to over 120 billion in 2023. On the one hand, lower consumption affects and on the other stocks that remain at record levels for the season.
In Europe, with spring upon us and the prospect of even milder temperatures, stocks reach 59.77% of capacity at 682.16 terawatt hours (TWh).
In Germany, the most virtuous and energy-intensive country, they are at 66.25% at 168.81 TWh.
Second is Italy at 56.47% at 111.22 TWh, followed by the Netherlands (54.29% at 77.37 TWh), Austria (75.43% at 73.9 TWh) and France (38, 87% at 52.22 TWh).
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