As of: March 18, 2024, 7:13 p.m
By: Johannes Welte, Moritz Bletzinger
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Over 60 earthquakes in Italy indicate dangerous activity in the supervolcano.
An outbreak could be imminent.
Pozzuoli – The situation around the supervolcano in the Phlegraean Fields in the south of Italy is getting worse again.
An almost endless series of earthquakes began on Thursday evening (March 8th).
By Friday evening at 10:51 p.m., the National Institute of Geochemistry and Volcano Research (INGV) recorded more than 60 quakes.
The swarm of earthquakes then came to an abrupt halt.
Warning signs at the supervolcano in Italy: series of earthquakes – ground bulges upwards
Clouds of sulfur vapor rise behind the houses of Pozzuoli.
© IMAGO/napolipress
The first quake reached a magnitude of 1.5.
During Friday night and during the day, the tremors increased in intensity and reached a magnitude of 2.3.
In some cases the ground shook up to three times a minute.
The epicenters were at depths between three kilometers and 200 meters, and the tremors were sometimes even felt on the surface.
The red circles show the earthquakes of the past 24 hours.
© INGV
Although the individual tremors were not particularly strong, they show that the ground above the supervolcano is bulging more and more.
According to INGV, the level of the port city of Pozzuoli has increased by 1.22 meters since November 2005.
Supervolcano magma heats groundwater: steam boiler could burst at some point
The curvature of the ground is attributed to a magma chamber about three kilometers deep, which heats the groundwater above.
You can imagine it like a huge steam boiler from which excess pressure is repeatedly released in the form of small, incessant earthquakes.
However, there are fears that the “lid” of this gigantic steam boiler could burst at some point.
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The explosion of New Zealand's White Island volcano killed 22 people.
© Mai Keer¡¤xiede via www.imago-images.de
It is worrying that during the current swarm earthquake, which could signal a phreatic explosion, two main areas are emerging: one of them is the eastern part of the city of Pozzuoli, where there are numerous residential buildings.
The other is the hill of Monte Olibano, where the Italian Air Force Military Academy is located.
The center of gravity of the earthquake is under inhabited areas
Monte Olibano, an extinct lava dome that is around 3,800 years old, and the eastern urban area of Pozzuoli are both in the immediate vicinity of the Solfatara volcanic crater.
This crater contains hot sulfur springs and fumaroles that emit hot gas.
The hot springs and fumaroles of Pisciarelli bubble at the eastern foot of the Solfatara.
Various measured values are recorded at both locations.
INGV report raises concerns about volcanic eruption in Italy – locals fear: “I’m afraid and shaking”
The monthly report of the INGV (National Institute of Geography) for February, published on Friday, also raises fears that the situation in the supervolcano is getting worse: “The composition of the fumaroles and the monitored parameters indicate the continuation of the multi-year trends of heating and increasing pressure of the hygrothermal system “, says the report.
The hygrothermal system refers to the heated water underground.
In addition: “The carbon dioxide and methane report shows an increase in values compared to previous periods, confirming the trend of increase.” The time series of surface temperatures in the rising areas of Pisciarelli and Solfatara recorded by infrared cameras showed higher values in February 2024 than the average of previous months, according to the INGV.
People on site react with a mixture of panic, fatalism and sarcasm: “I'm scared and shaking,” one woman posted on Facebook.
Another demands: “The authorities should do something.”
The reactions to this are varied: “Do you want to beat up the volcano?” Another user suggests: “You can ask the carabinieri if they want to arrest him.” Finally, one user says: “I think it's time to pack suitcases.
I hate to say it, but it’s never been as bad as it is now.”
Explosion would have catastrophic effects: 460,000 people live in the red zone around the supervolcano
The consequence would be a so-called phreatic explosion, which would have catastrophic effects in the middle of a residential area.
Around 460,000 people live in the so-called Red Zone, the area most at risk.
How dangerous a phreatic explosion can be became clear in December 2019, when an eruption on the uninhabited New Zealand volcanic island of White Island killed 22 people who were visiting the island as part of a boat excursion.
If there had been settlements there, the consequences of the scorching hot ash clouds would have been devastating.
The Phlegraean Fields near Naples show increased activity.
© IMAGO/Antonio Balasco
There is also the possibility of a lava eruption if the phreatic explosion exposes the lava channel.
Some scientists believe that the lava is directly responsible for the bulge by continuing to rise and a large magma eruption could occur.
Such a “Plinian” eruption would be devastating in a residential area, as a simulation by the INGV showed.
Some researchers are even warning of a super eruption like the one that occurred 39,000 years ago and wiped out all life within a radius of 80 kilometers.
In addition, severe earthquakes that could cause buildings to collapse are possible at any time.
The editor wrote this article and then used an AI language model for optimization at his own discretion. All information has been carefully checked. Find out more about our AI principles here.