As of: March 18, 2024, 12:42 p.m
By: Max Schäfer
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Politicians want to combat the housing crisis with 400,000 apartments.
According to a study, less than half is enough.
Where does the discrepancy come from?
Berlin – Long queues when viewing apartments, numerous inquiries from interested parties to landlords, high rents: symptoms of the housing shortage in many German cities.
There is widespread consensus on the housing crisis, the solution is a political goal of the traffic light: 400,000 apartments should be built per year.
Politicians are spending 18 billion euros on social housing.
Nevertheless, the set goal remains unachieved.
A study by the Empirica research institute now finds: That's not necessary at all.
Instead, politicians and companies must build in a more targeted manner.
Based on various population development scenarios, the researchers have determined how many apartments need to be built in Germany each year.
In the current year 2024 and in the next three years, that is 168,000 apartments in the medium scenario - less than half of the target of 400,000 declared by the traffic light coalition.
Experts assume a population of 84.5 million in 2045.
Study significantly reduces the number of apartments required
But even in the upper scenario with a forecast number of 88 million people, according to Empirica, the need for 210,000 apartments by 2027 is well below the political objectives.
Period |
Housing needs in the middle scenario |
Housing needs in the upper scenario |
|---|---|---|
2024-2027 |
168,000 |
210,000 |
2028-2032 |
151,000 |
196,000 |
2033-2037 |
195,000 |
229,000 |
2038-2042 |
211,000 |
247,000 |
Source: Empirica |
Looking at housing construction in 2022, the research institute also states that the impression is that there are too many new apartments.
According to Empirica, this is evident from the difference between the 295,000 apartments actually built and the determined need of 191,000.
“Then it seems as if around 104,000 apartments were built too many.”
Housing construction must be more targeted – explains study
However, the researchers want to look at regional differences.
The study says that there are regions where too little has been built.
Too many apartments have been built in some parts of the country.
Of the 295,000 apartments built in 2022, only 181,000 will contribute to alleviating local shortages, the researchers conclude.
According to a study, significantly fewer apartments are needed – if they are built in the right place.
© Rolf Vennenbernd/dpa
“Especially due to the blatant housing shortage in major cities and the problems with new construction, it is very important to look at where apartments are needed and to what extent,” explained Jan Grade, Managing Director of Empirica Regio GmbH, in response to Vonovia’s criticism - CEO Rolf Buch.
In a Linkedin post, he accused Empirica of downplaying the housing crisis.
The numbers support builders, project planners and local politicians to make the right location and investment decisions, explained Grade.
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“The success of housing policy must be measured locally”
Empirica's managing director Reiner Braun told
NTV
that his institute's forecast should by no means be understood as an all-clear .
The institute wants to show in which regions there is a need to catch up - and in which there is not due to the expected decline in population.
“The success of housing policy must be measured locally,” said Braun.
It says nothing about whether the housing shortage in large cities would be reduced if 400,000 apartments were actually built.
Where the need for new apartments and single-family homes is particularly great
According to a housing construction study by Empirica, the need for new apartment buildings is particularly high in cities and metropolitan regions, especially in Leipzig, Potsdam, Frankfurt and Rhine-Main as well as in Munich.
In contrast, more single and two-family houses need to be built in the area surrounding Berlin, in the northwest, in Schleswig-Holstein as well as in Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg.
In East Germany, demand outside of the cities is low.
The researchers also predict a greater need for special housing, especially in the area of age-appropriate living.
Other institutes and associations estimate the need for new housing to be significantly higher.
According to the Pestel Institute, there is a shortage of 800,000 apartments.
There is also a shortage of over 900,000 social housing units.
According to an expert, the housing shortage threatens political stability.
(
ms)