If information is the resolution of uncertainty, what Catalans provide with their vote on May 12 will surely resolve many unknowns on the political scene, not only Catalan, but Spanish as a whole.
The first, and fundamental, is to know if a minority but substantial part of Catalans wants to continue with what the
process
meant (the attempt to achieve independence unilaterally, breaking legality) or if they consider that chapter closed.
The second is to know to what extent the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, can maintain the legislature or will be forced to bring forward the general elections.
For now, the announcement made by the
president
of the Generalitat, Pere Aragonès, led Sánchez to renounce the approval of the General Budgets for 2024, until now one of his most important objectives.
Those for 2023 are extended, which is never good for the solvency of a government, although the record is maintained with those of 2016 of the PP Government, which were extended for three consecutive years (the 2018 extension, already the work of the Government of Sanchez).
More information
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What calendar does the amnesty law have from now on?
What plans does the PP have to slow it down in the Senate?
Sánchez faces three mandatory electoral processes: Basque elections, on April 21;
the Catalan ones, on May 12, and the European ones, on June 9.
It will be very difficult for it to move forward if in the Catalan elections the PSC does not obtain the majority, not only of votes (that has already happened in the previous regional elections: 625,000 votes compared to 603,000 for ERC and 568,000 for Junts per Catalunya), but also of support for achieve the presidency of the Generalitat.
It has a good candidate, Salvador Illa, a socialist who connects with the most classic model of a socialist politician, a graduate in Philosophy and mayor of his town, who was unexpectedly Minister of Health during the pandemic and who did the job reasonably well (by far that may now suffer some wear and tear due to the
Koldo case
).
Sánchez has offered him all his support, although some of those responsible for the PSC would prefer that the president stay away: a sector of the militants is very irritated with the amnesty law and will be even more so if Puigdemont manages to return to Catalonia on those dates. .
For the PSC, Josep Borrell is a much better asset, who maintained a brilliant opposition to the independentists in 2017 and who now, as head of the foreign policy of the European Union, harshly criticizes the Israeli massacre in Gaza, something that brings him close to many young people. .
Illa faces a difficult challenge: mobilizing the electorate to the left and right of the classic PSC vote.
In Comú he has caused the electoral advance because he believes that he can improve the expectations of him, scratching the socialists, but it remains to be seen whether his voters appreciate the movement.
In any case, everything will depend on Salvador Illa.
If he reaches the Generalitat, the result of the immediate European elections, presumably discreet or bad for the PSOE, will have less impact and Sánchez will have better expectations of completing the term.
In his eyes, the amnesty law will finally be justified.
If Illa does not succeed, the law will be even more affected and general elections will be a credible option.
The Popular Party does not aspire to be an important actor in these elections, although it has an element in its hand that is.
The schedule for the implementation of the amnesty law and the possible return to Spain, free, of Carles Puigdemont.
Congress has already sent the text to the Senate, where the PP has an absolute majority and where the Popular Party has modified the regulations to be able to delay the process for two months.
If this were the case, it would prevent Puigdemont's return before the elections or before the investiture.
But some PP leaders now believe that the sooner Puigdemont returns to Catalonia and the more spectacular the reception, the more the PSC sector that has followed the entire development of the amnesty law with deep displeasure will be demobilized.
His candidate in Catalonia, Alberto Fernández, who does not belong to Feijóo's circle and who abhors the PP's furtive contacts with the Junts leader, does not share this theory.
Fernández, who was on a tightrope as leader of the PP, is, however, the best possible candidate for the popular party at the moment and aspires to attract votes from the almost disappeared Ciudadanos and Vox.
The independentists will arrive, as usual, in conflict.
Aragonés has already recalled that Junts came third in the regional elections.
Ultimately, the only thing that really matters is knowing how many of them want to keep the
process
alive .
Then we will also know what has been happening.
Faith of errors
In a first version of this article it was said that Rajoy's PP Government extended the Budgets on three occasions: 2016, 2017 and 2018. However, the third extension (2018) was already the work of the Pedro Sánchez Government.
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