As of: March 18, 2024, 8:20 p.m
By: Lisa Mahnke
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Press
Split
Ukraine is preparing for a long war.
Their strategy copies that of Russia.
What do the fortifications mean for the Ukrainian war?
Kiev – Ukraine is starting to prepare more quickly for ongoing fighting.
Time seems to be running out.
While Russia had already started fortifying the front last year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced some time ago that he wanted to strengthen and rebuild fortifications.
The dimensions of the facilities have now become known: with a total length of 2,000 kilometers, the fortifications are no small project.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said
the government had allocated approximately 17.5 billion hryvnia (about 412 million euros) for the construction of fortifications, according to
The Kyiv Independent .
“Defending three 2,000-kilometer-long railways is a big task, but the pace is good now.
I look forward to its timely completion,” Zelenskyj said on his Telegram channel.
A few days ago there was talk of “only” 1000 kilometers.
British minister warns of “conflict of attrition” – is there enough time for a defensive line for Ukraine?
“The establishment of major defensive positions suggests a conflict of attrition and means that any attempt to breach them is likely to result in heavy casualties,” the British defense minister wrote, according to
AFP
.
Ukraine's fortification strategy is a response to the Russian Surovikin Line, a strong Russian defensive line that makes it significantly more difficult for Ukrainian troops to advance and take territory.
The Russian line is a three-layer fortification of trenches, tank traps and bases.
The plans for the Ukrainian defense line are based on the Russian counterpart - there, too, anti-tank barriers (so-called dragon's teeth), anti-tank trenches, infantry trenches and minefields are to be used in three defensive lines.
However, according to some estimates, the end result is likely to be less deep and sophisticated.
“Ukrainian leaders are already saying that time is the key factor preventing them from building something like the Surovikin Line,” said Ivan Klyszcz of the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS) in Estonia, according to
AFP
.
“To be able to 'dig in' in the operational command for a defensive operation, you need about 5 to 8 engineer battalions, and there is only one.
Question: why not everyone else?
This is unknown,” reserve colonel Viktor Kevliuk told
BBC
.
The lack of responsible battalions also poses risks for warfare, especially because a continuous defensive line cannot be created all at once.
There are always weak points that could be penetrated more easily by the Russian army.
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Interim solution in the Ukraine war: “Active defense” should combine defense with reconquest
Such a fortification is “necessary because Ukraine is clearly on the defensive due to the shortage of ammunition and the declining morale of the troops,” said Klyszcz.
With the type of fortification, Zelensky could come closer to his goal of “maximizing the number of dead and injured on the Russian side,” Seth Jones of the US think tank CSIS told
AFP
.
However, a Ukrainian goal is also to recapture territory, for which a more dynamic fortification would be suitable.
"If the lines are static and don't move at all, that's not good from a policy perspective," Edward Arnold of the Royal United Services Institute think tank told
The Telegraph
.
Instead, the concept of “active defense” is being pursued, in which the defensive lines are maintained and at the same time weak points in the Russian defense are to be found.
“Reloading phase” or failure of Ukraine’s offensive?
Expert opinions vary
Alexander Khramchihin from the Institute for Military Analysis sees the construction of the defense system as evidence of the failure of the Ukrainian offensive.
“The potential success of the facility depends on its quality,” said Khramchihin, according to
AFP
.
Based on the failed fortifications in Avdiivka, Vasily Kashin from the Moscow School of Economics asks AFP
:
“Does Ukraine have enough people to build it and then defend it?”
Ukraine is rapidly building over 2,000 km of military fortifications.
© IMAGO/Vyacheslav Madiyevskyy/Ukrinform/ABACPRESS
“The balance of power is changing and Ukraine aims to prolong the conflict until at least 2025,” Kashin said.
In fact, it's a matter of holding out for both sides - until either the sanctions against Russia have more effect, until Western countries' arms deliveries to Ukraine collapse, or until successful negotiations take place.
The French Institute for International Relations (Ifri) spoke of a “phase of reloading” rather than a “dead end”.
It is about “equipping ourselves with the means to reach a decision by 2025 or 2026”.
(lismah)