As of: March 20, 2024, 10:32 p.m
By: Florian Naumann
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Split
The AfD loses poll points in Thuringia.
Good news?
Limited.
The formation of a government is likely to be a drama.
Erfurt - There are great concerns about the state elections in the east - but surprising signals are now coming from Thuringia: The AfD has slipped sharply in a recent survey.
However, according to the survey, the right-wing populists from Björn Höcke's regional association, which is classified as right-wing extremist, are still the strongest force.
The “Thuringia Trend” published on Wednesday (March 20th) on behalf of the
MDR
sees the AfD at 29 percent.
That means nine percentage points more than the CDU in second place - but also a whopping five percentage point decline compared to the previous survey.
It was from July 2023.
Thuringia survey shows dilemma: AfD loses - but Wagenknecht's BSW skyrockets
Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow's left has slipped similarly: according to the survey by the infratest dimap institute, it now ranks at 16 percent, which is four percentage points less than last summer.
The CDU is at 20 percent (-1).
The bottom line is that the FDP also joins the ranks of losers: the party friends of short-term Prime Minister Thomas Kemmerich would no longer be represented in the Thuringian state parliament with less than three percent.
A survey is likely to give Bodo Ramelow a new headache - majorities without Björn Höcke's AfD or Sahra Wagenknecht seem difficult to achieve.
© Montage: Imago/picture-alliance/dpa/Funke Photo Services/Martin Schutt/Bernd Elmenthaler/Sascha Fromm/fn
With an unchanged 5 percent, the Greens are also balancing on the edge of the extra-parliamentary opposition, while the SPD remains at 9 percent (-1).
The big winner of the
MDR
survey is someone else: Sahra Wagenknecht's new BSW lands at 15 percent in the Sunday question.
There were already indications of such a BSW survey rocket launch.
The results raise several questions - and show one or two paradoxes.
Ramelow problems bloom in Thuringia: Red-Red-Green would need CDU - or Wagenknecht?
According to infratest dimap, Thuringians look at their state government with exceptional displeasure: Only 35 percent of those surveyed are satisfied with its performance - according to the report, a historic low for Ramelow's red-red-green coalition.
At the same time, if the Prime Minister were directly elected, 44 percent would vote for the incumbent Ramelow.
Höcke comes to 16 percent.
On the one hand, this is a considerably low value compared to the AfD's survey results.
On the other hand, that is also seven percentage points more than in July 2023.
infratest dimap |
Insa |
Result 2019 |
|
|---|---|---|---|
AfD |
29 (-5) |
31 (-) |
23.4 |
CDU |
20 (-1) |
21 (+1) |
21.8 |
left |
16 (-4) |
18 (+3) |
31.0 |
BSW |
15 (+15) |
13 (-4) |
- |
SPD |
9 (-1) |
6 (-) |
8.2 |
Greens |
5 (-) |
5 (-) |
5.2 |
FDP |
< 3 |
2 (-1) |
5.0 |
Other |
6 |
3 (-) |
5.4 |
One explanation for this data is the desolate situation of the Erfurt state government: red-red-green does not have its own majority.
The coalition needs the support of the CDU for its own projects, which is extremely reluctant.
Other majorities would only exist with the AfD.
The FDP faction in Thuringia has long since disintegrated.
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At the same time, the survey does not promise any solution to any of these problems.
The Left, SPD and Greens are far from a majority with a combined total of 30 percent.
In 2019, the alliance was still at 44.4 percent.
Since then, the left in particular has lost a lot.
A government majority would now be mathematically feasible together with the CDU - but the conservatives around top candidate Mario Voigt would not be available for such an alliance of the remaining "traditional" state parliament parties anyway.
Thuringia's state parliament emergency: No majority without AfD, Wagenknecht, Left
The problem is easy to grasp: According to the current survey, the AfD and the Wagenknecht alliance in Thuringia together would get 44 percent, the other parties (including the FDP) a further 6 percent.
That means: A stable government beyond the unrealistic red-red-green-black alliance would only exist with Höcke's right-wing extremist state AfD or Sahra Wagenknecht.
The CDU has also officially ruled out an alliance with the AfD.
The former parliamentary group leader Mike Mohring recently said in the ZDF talk “Markus Lanz” that you can’t tell “the 60 percent” that you “don’t want to talk to them”.
What was probably meant were AfD and BSW voters.
Voigt explained to
IPPEN.MEDIA
in February that, given the Wagenknecht program had not yet been determined, he could not “yet give a concrete answer” as to whether an alliance with the BSW was conceivable.
Wagenknecht appeared open to talks with the CDU.
However: According to current survey results, these two parties also do not have a state parliament majority in Thuringia.
Who could go: Unclear.
Thuringia before the state elections: not even emergency measures are successful
A survey published just a few days ago by the not entirely controversial Insa Institute did not paint a simpler picture.
BSW and AfD together also came to 44 percent, although with deviations in favor of the AfD.
One of the few conceivable solutions could be a minority government working with the BSW.
However, there does not seem to be a certain majority for this constellation.
This currently seems within reach for an alliance of the CDU, Greens, SPD and Wagenknecht.
The political situation appears to be in disarray: in the summer of 2021 there was not even a majority in favor of dissolving parliament and holding new elections.
Recently it even looked as if the democratic parties would fail to make Thuringia's constitution “weatherproof”.
Even the extension of the term of office for a deputy constitutional judge failed - there are fears that the AfD will make the court unable to act with a one-third blocking minority.
By the way, Hans-Georg Maaßen's “union of values” plays no role in the surveys - Insa estimated it at 1 percent.
(
fn
)