It hasn't started yet, but the trend seems unstoppable: humanity is going to shrink.
By 2050, more than three-quarters (155 out of 204) of countries will have fertility rates so low that they will not be able to maintain their population size.
And this trend will be almost complete by 2100, when 97% of countries (198 of 204) will be in the same situation.
Deaths will exceed births and there will be fewer and fewer people in the world.
These are data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington published in the journal
The Lancet
.
The authors warn governments to start planning for the threats that these changes may pose to the economy, health, the environment and geopolitics.
More information
A country without children: x-ray of the low birth rate in Spain
On November 15, 2022, the world population reached the unprecedented figure of 8 billion people, but according to this study, this could be the peak before bending the curve to begin the population decline.
The trend is global, but the rhythm is different depending on the area.
In rich countries, where fertility rates are already very low, they will continue to decline.
And Spain is an eloquent example of this trend.
According to the study, Spain had a rate of 2.47 children per woman in 1950, then 2.13 in 1980 and collapsing to 1.26 in 2021. If things continue like this, in 2050 it will be 1.23 children per woman and in 2100 1.11.
It is one of the countries with the most pronounced decline in its environment, since for that year France (1.49), Germany (1.40) or the European average (1.37) will be above it.
The trend agrees with what the National Institute of Statistics has been pointing out, which last year marked a historical minimum for births in the country.
2023 was the seventh consecutive year in which more deaths than births were recorded in Spain, with a difference of 113,256 people.
Low-income environments follow the same trend, but start from a very different reality, with much higher birth rates.
Only in this way can its weight in the total percentage of births in the world be explained, which will almost double in the coming years.
They will go from representing 18% of the total in 2021 to 35% when the century ends.
One in every two children born on the planet in 2100 will be born in sub-Saharan Africa.
Pensions and labor
The authors of the study believe that this trend can be seen, from a Western perspective, as a way to sustain their pensions, their workforce and their demographic stability.
And they conclude that it is a patch.
“International migration can only be a temporary solution, as declining fertility is becoming a universal phenomenon.”
Birth rates in developing countries are higher, but in the future, better access to contraceptives and female education will reduce them.
The problem is not only demographic, but multifactorial.
Mariona Lozano Riera, sociologist and researcher at the Center d'Estudis Demogràfics de Cataluña, elaborates on this idea in an editorial on the subject published by Science Media Center Spain (SMC).
“It is true that demographics are not very good at supporting the current pension system, but it is not to blame, rather the lack of political action and the structural conditions of the Spanish labor market aggravate the problem,” she asserts.
The sociologist points out that the announced demographic changes are already producing changes.
But she avoids falling into alarmism.
“I wouldn't dare say that the Welfare State is in danger in the sense that it disappears,” she says.
“But there will surely be a change.
In fact, there is already a silent transformation towards models in which everyone receives the same pension and the extras depend on private pension plans or those established by collective agreements.”
Teresa Castro Martín, sociologist at the Higher Council for Scientific Research (CSIC), points out that the team behind this study already received “some criticism from demographic experts due to methodological inconsistencies” in 2020, also in statements to SMC Spain.
Even so, the expert recognizes that the data she offers illustrates global trends well.
Castro highlights some differences compared to other analyses.
“This study estimates a decline in fertility worldwide, and especially in sub-Saharan Africa, faster than the United Nations,” she points out.
The current analysis predicts that the global fertility rate will fall below the replacement level (2.1 children per woman) around 2030, “while the United Nations forecasts that this will occur around 2050.”
The researcher points out that births “will increasingly be concentrated in the areas of the world most vulnerable to climate change, resource scarcity, political instability, poverty and infant mortality.”
And she regrets, finally, that of the large group of experts who have carried out the analysis, there is none who come from the field of reproduction.
None like Sara López, gynecologist at the Center for Infertility and Human Reproduction (CIRH) in Barcelona and author of the book
I want to get pregnant.
(Sunrise).
López confirms that the study points out macro trends that she sees in her daily consultation at a micro level.
“In Spain, the number of women who have their first child beyond the age of 40 has multiplied by four,” she explains in a telephone conversation.
It is 10% of the total and this delay in maternal age leads to a decrease in birth rates for obvious reasons: “At this age, you may not be in time to have children or you may not be able to have more than one.”
Regarding possible solutions, López explains that birth rates are encouraged by “favoring social policies, economic aid and work-life balance.”
She recognizes that science, with oocyte freezing, has also helped many women and will continue to do so.
“But I believe that this is an individual solution and we should tend to look for a collective solution.”
In any case, she does not believe that this should be approached as something positive or negative and she remembers that the problem occurs when a person's reproductive projects are frustrated due to external causes such as lack of stability or support.
In an associated editorial, the study authors also reflect on the implications of this trend.
They recommend that rulers direct efforts to analyze “the causes of the decline in fertility and not just the consequences,” and warn about a response that erodes women's rights: “There is a risk, when talking about the decline of fertility, that some countries adopt measures that encourage birth, but restrict rights related to sex and reproduction, including the right to choose whether or not to have a child, the time of pregnancy or access to knowledge and assistance in sexual matters,” they lament before recommending that any political response be based on the guarantee of rights.
In recent years, different leaders, at the national and international level, have tried to link low birth rates with the right to abortion.
The recommendation made by the study is to analyze the causes of the decline in birth rates and facilitate the reproductive and family projects of those who want to have children, but that this should not serve as an excuse to limit the rights of others.
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