Victor Pinchuk is founder of the Yalta European Strategy think tank and the Victor Pinchuk Foundation.
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The President of the French Republic, Emmanuel Macron declared on February 26 that the intervention of Western troops in Ukraine could no longer be ruled out.
This declaration, as bold as it is lucid, echoes another declaration by another President of the French Republic, François Mitterrand.
Exactly thirty years ago, the old French President declared to the newly elected young Ukrainian President, Leonid Kuchma:
“They will betray you, young man
. ”
This was when the Budapest Memorandum was about to be signed by France - a memorandum by which France, the United Kingdom, the United States, Russia and China gave Ukraine commitments security in exchange for abandoning the nuclear arsenal inherited from the Soviet Union.
It was, again, a bold and lucid declaration but also largely visionary.
These commitments - called "security assurances" in the original English version and "security guarantees" in the French translation of the document, which can be considered faulty - did not provide the same guarantees of security as those implied by the Article 5 of NATO.
They did not protect Ukraine from an attack by Russia in 2014, nor from a full-scale invasion with genocidal intentions in 2022. Russia broke its word, and in the most terrible way possible.
The other signatories let this happen for a long time.
Of course, since 1994, the Ukrainians had relied on much stronger support against potential threats - and that support would likely have served to prevent the Russian invasions of 2014 and 2022. Even more recently, thousands of lives could certainly have been saved if, since February 24, 2022, the Western signatories of the Budapest Memorandum had provided stronger and faster support.
These regrets do not prevent us from assessing the true value of the support that was provided by the United Kingdom and the United States but also by France, and from saying that this support enabled the heroic Ukrainian soldiers to stop the aggressor and even to liberate part of the occupied territories.
It is difficult to say both that Ukrainians are defending Europe and that they should be the only ones to risk their lives.
Victor Pinchuk
The signatories of the Budapest Memorandum did not immediately honor their security commitments, but their subsequent actions prove that they did not betray Ukraine.
For the moment.
Because today, American aid is blocked in Congress.
And the countries of the European Union are helping with less intensity and often less speed than they had committed to.
The Russian aggressor saw this as an opportunity to resume its advance.
If Ukraine's Western friends do not act now, in a united and decisive manner, then Russia could make even more substantial progress - we cannot now rule out the risk of new mass murders, rapes, deportations of 'children.
I have no doubt that in the long term, Russia will never achieve its goals because the Ukrainians will never give up.
But temporary successes are possible, and they would pose a great threat because Russia might believe that one success leads to another.
Now, let us make no mistake, it is also against the West that Russia is waging war.
It is because he was not mistaken that Emmanuel Macron declared:
“We will do everything necessary to ensure that Russia cannot win this war”
.
Europe must mobilize to compensate for the shortcomings of the United States, those of today and perhaps those of tomorrow.
It's not just about sending aid: the President of the French Republic has introduced the idea of risk sharing.
This is justified: it is difficult to say both that the Ukrainians are defending Europe and that they should be the only ones to risk their lives.
It is also wise: the presence of Western troops in Ukraine would constitute a source of uncertainty for the Russian aggressor, and as in the past, we would ultimately see its threats collapse on their own.
Emmanuel Macron made this statement at a crucial moment.
A small number of European nations courageously followed suit.
Others will follow, I fervently hope.
So, a young French president will be able to say to his young Ukrainian counterpart:
“You see young man, we have not betrayed you”
.