Gideon Sa'ar on ending engagement with the Blue and White party/Elad Gutman
The time that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu devotes to net politics can be gauged by the number of hours that Justice Minister Yariv Levin spends in his presence.
If at the beginning of the war, Levin's presence in Netanyahu's aquarium decreased significantly, in recent weeks he has returned to the routine of almost daily visits, to teach us where the prime minister's center of gravity is these days.
On the agenda: the preservation of the coalition and the success of the internal crises that could shake his rule from within, in particular the recruitment crisis, and Gideon Sa'ar's threat to withdraw from the emergency government, if his demand to join the war cabinet is not met.
The two unfolding events will simultaneously reach a boiling point in the middle of next week: at Netanyahu's request, Sa'ar extended the ultimatum until after the Purim holiday, and it will expire on the exact day when a cabinet meeting will convene to approve a new recruitment/evasion plan, a day before the deadline for submitting the state's answer to the High Court on the matter. Netanyahu, as usual, postpones everything to the last minute, in search of combinations that will allow him to enjoy all worlds: to add Sa'ar to the war cabinet without Benny Gantz withdrawing from it and above all without Ben Gvir and Smotrich threatening to withdraw from the coalition, and rolling the recruitment crisis three months ahead, without the ultra-Orthodox joining to the other partners in the threats of retirement.
A real flounder.
Gideon Sa'ar and Netanyahu/image processing, Flash 90
Netanyahu, it seems, did not plan or create Sa'ar's move, which put him in a real lurch.
At the very least, he did not correctly assess the War Cabinet's demand as a sole and exclusive condition.
Sa'ar made it clear to Netanyahu at the meeting last week that he would be killed and not pass, and since then he has repeatedly repeated the message publicly, that he has no problem simply resigning.
Netanyahu tried to check whether he would agree to receive an executive portfolio instead, or settle for an official/unofficial observer status in the limited decision-making forum, whether it is the War Cabinet or Seven or Eight or whatever name they call it.
Gantz's opposition to Sa'ar's inclusion was assessed by those around the prime minister as possible, but not the anger and fury of Ben Gabir and Smotrich, who also demand to enter the room and get a place at the table of the big ones.
Gantz and Eisenkot will no longer be able to contain them.
Netanyahu, the world champion of rejections, asked and received from Saar a few more days to engineer a creative combine, but in the end he will probably have no choice but to choose between a problem with Saar and a problem with Gantz and a problem with Ben Gabir, the least likely scenario.
First in his ranking of priorities is the Block 64 which ensures his survival, then Gantz, who gives him an internal and international iron dome.
Especially now, in the midst of the serious crisis facing the White House, when Israel is struggling for the last remnants of political credit, as the Economist cover with the headline "Israel alone" bluntly reflected yesterday.
If only the far right government of Ben Gabir and Smotritz will face the world, the tsunami will only increase.
Sa'ar, despite his four mandates, gives Netanyahu neither this nor that, not to mention the suspicion at home in Caesarea, where it is historically certain that he is constantly trying to putsch.
Last week, after Sa'ar dissolved the partnership with Gantz and announced that he was setting out on his own, everyone thought that he was on his way to expanding Netanyahu's coalition to 68 fingers.
Now it seems that the move may end up in the opposite direction - the first abandonment of the emergency government to the refuge of the opposition.
Although Sa'ar's retirement will not detract from the 64th block, it is expected to embarrass Gantz, and increase the pressure on him to be next in line.
And - to make the recruitment crisis impossible to solve.
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Summoned to Netanyahu's office and boycotted.
Benny Gantz/Flash 90, Yonatan Zindel
Even in recruiting, Netanyahu is trying to juggle a combination of many players with conflicting interests: Defense Minister Galant, who announced last month that he would only advance a recruiting law that would gain the consent of all parts of the coalition, through the ultra-Orthodox who are anxious for the denial of their allowances, but not to the IDF For the pair of former chiefs of staff who demand the promotion of the Israeli service outline, one of the flagship programs of the state camp. Netanyahu summoned them all to his office last week. Gantz boycotted. This week Gallant called him, Eisenkot and Aryeh Deri in an attempt to speed things up, Trooper troops and Ariel Atias met for long hours, Levin and Deri are on the line several times a day - but the way to close the circle has not yet been found. So what is Netanyahu doing in the meantime? He is looking for a combine that will allow him to postpone.
It is actually a combine upon a combine: last year, when the conscription law expired, the government passed a resolution authorizing the Minister of Defense to order to the IDF for not recruiting ultra-Orthodox, which was petitioned to the High Court, which is currently threatening to deny the allowances. The government's obvious answer to the High Court about the combine is another combine, an identical government decision that this time will include a detailed commitment to the conscription law, including targets, quotas, Economic sanctions and timetables for legislation.
Gantz and his gang, say the Likud, have no real interest in reaching agreements as the Defense Minister demanded, so Netanyahu intends to simply bypass him and submit the decision for the government's approval in his place.
The elegant timing of Gallant's trip to Washington this week will spare both of them, in the meantime, the headache of promoting a conscription law contrary to the defense minister's position, but only temporarily.
Only a conscription law that will be supported by all parts of the coalition will be promoted.
Defense Minister Yoav Galant/Ministry of Defense
Even Gantz, it is estimated in Netanyahu's circle, could be absent or vote against in the government to express his protest, but does not want to play all the cards and quit yet, certainly not when the negotiations for the release of the abductees are in progress. Only, as with Sa'ar, it is not certain that they understand the The soul bird of the state camp; the issue of conscription is a red line for Eisenkot, who believes that a historic opportunity is being missed here in favor of political juggling that harms the servants. The combines will only bring him closer to Gantz to the time of the test. And the more the new law is indeed promoted in a unilateral form in the Knesset, the more Netanyahu's problem will drag on inside, to the Likud benches, and will also endanger the majority of the coalition for his approval.
Netanyahu's method over the years is to throw all the balls in the air and engineer the best combination for him from what falls. The question is whether after October 7, and the security, political, economic and sovereign catastrophe that is occurring on his watch, And when 70-75% of the public longs for his replacement, there will not come a single moment when they collide and collapse on his rule.
More on the same topic:
Gideon Saar
Benjamin Netanyahu
Benny Gantz
Gadi Eisenkot
Itamar Ben Gabir
Bezalel Smotrich
Rival Levin