Dark clouds in the weather for Holy Week: abundant and widespread rainfall in the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands

The first part of the special Easter prediction, issued this Thursday by the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet), is very good news for the countryside and reservoirs, but very bad news for processions and tourism.

The forecast does not lack a detail of the worst nightmares of hoteliers: sharp drop in temperature, wind, abundant and widespread rain and even snow, all surrounded by high uncertainty in the forecast.

Thus, the festivities will begin following the planned script, that is, with a predominance of stable weather on Sunday in the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, but widespread showers in the Canary Islands and a drop in temperatures, which have been warm for 10 days for the date.

From Monday to Wednesday, “abundant and widespread rainfall in the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands”, accompanied by a sharp drop in thermometers that would leave snow at 800-1,000 meters and, from Thursday to Saturday, more widespread rain, but with snow only in the mountains and a recovery in temperatures.

According to Aemet's note, from Friday to Sunday the weather will be stable and without rain, "except for a cold front that will touch the Cantabrian Sea on Saturday."

Thus, the agency expects skies with intervals of clouds that will not leave water, except in the Cantabrian Sea, where weak precipitation will occur on Friday afternoon and Saturday.

Isolated showers or thunderstorms may also occur in the mountain systems in the afternoon.

The tremendous "Christ" of the forecast for #HolyWeek2024 seems to be becoming clearer.

It seems likely that it will rain from Monday in almost the entire country, especially between Thursday and Saturday.

Look at the green bars.

Seville (left) and Cuenca (right).

Rain that is greatly needed🌧️ pic.twitter.com/yzsIrHVlFJ

— Roberto Granda (@EnMet3) March 21, 2024

Temperatures will rise on Friday except in the Cantabrian Sea, where “a decline will begin that will extend on Saturday to the rest of the northern half and, on Sunday, to the Mediterranean slope.”

In the Canary Islands, where Aemet issued an information note this Thursday due to the stationary presence of an isolated depression at high levels (dana) – a pocket of air in the upper layers of the atmosphere – “instability will predominate, with widespread showers that could be locally strong and persistent and be accompanied by storms, more likely and intense on Saturday, with decreasing temperatures.”

From Holy Monday to Holy Wednesday, things get complicated, although the forecast could vary, since Aemet recognizes that “there is a high uncertainty” typical of spring, the season with the most unstable and difficult to predict atmosphere of the year.

As of today, for Aemet the "most likely scenario contemplates the penetration of successive fronts, which would leave cloudy skies and abundant and widespread rainfall in the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands."

The water would be accompanied by a “sharp” drop in temperatures on Monday and Tuesday, with frost in the mountain systems and moors of the northern half.

Hand in hand with this lowering term, the snow level "would drop sharply" starting Monday afternoon to 800-1,000 meters, which will lead to "snowfall in the main mountain systems, without ruling it out in surrounding areas."

In case any ingredient is missing from the storm, "the wind will swing to the west, tending to intensify."

#HolyWeek2024: expected accumulated snow.

It can not be, it can not be, it can not be!!

pic.twitter.com/xk642Qxqdx

— RAM Meteorology Fan Magazine (@RAM_meteo) March 20, 2024

Meanwhile, in the Canary Islands it is “likely that instability will continue, with cloudy skies and precipitation, more likely in the north of the islands” and which may extend to points in the south on Tuesday.

This day temperatures will also drop in the archipelago.

From Holy Thursday to Holy Saturday, the last day contemplated by the special prediction, “a certain degree of uncertainty” remains, but for the agency it is most likely that “the unstable weather will continue on the Peninsula, with the passage of successive fronts that "They would leave cloudy skies and widespread rainfall, less likely on the Mediterranean slope and more abundant on the Atlantic."

Snowfall, however, would be “restricted to mountain areas” and temperatures will tend to recover.

“Winds from the south and southwest, with strong intervals and very strong gusts” are expected. In the Canary Islands, more cloudy skies and precipitation, more likely in the western half and in the north of the islands, and temperatures with few changes.

This special prediction will be updated daily until March 30.

On a colorful map, which is better: this is what the forecast (deterministic, not taken as absolute truth) of accumulated rain until Friday the 29th looks like.

More than the amount of rain, look at the distribution.

It gives you a good idea of ​​where it might rain the most.

pic.twitter.com/PMNbSJYbZL

— Roberto Granda (@EnMet3) March 21, 2024