As of: March 23, 2024, 4:57 a.m
By: Nadja Zinsmeister
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Germany is expected to be overwhelmed by heat waves again this summer.
Will we have to adapt to completely new temperatures in the next few years?
Frankfurt – Germany could face a particularly hot summer this year.
Although current forecasts do not indicate consistent record levels, extreme heat waves could hit Europe between June and August.
The jet stream from the North Atlantic could further increase the effect, a study shows.
“Summer 2024 could be quite warm,” predicts meteorologist Dominik Jung from
wetter.net
, among others .
You should be prepared for “some strong heat waves” in Germany.
Between June and August, 1 to 2 degrees higher values would be expected compared to the 1991 to 2020 average, which represents a strong upward temperature deviation.
According to Jung, that would once again be “enough for a summer in the top 10 of the warmest summers since 1881.” However, a general record summer cannot yet be derived from the current data.
Hot summer expected in Germany – researchers identify patterns behind extreme heat phenomena
It's not just Germany that is facing some extreme temperatures.
As Jung explains, citing current weather graphics, the temperature deviation is to be expected throughout Europe, including in popular holiday countries such as Italy, France and Spain.
“The last graphic shows that there could be a summer that is noticeably too warm not only in Germany, but in almost all of Europe,” the weather expert explains.
In 2022, there was extreme drought in Germany: among other things, a sandbank on the Danube was torn open and dried out.
© Armin Weigel/dpa
The temperatures, which are far too high, no longer seem to be an exception.
As scientist Marilena Oltmanns from the Oceanographic Institute in Southampton found out through a study, the ten hottest and driest summers in Europe over the past 40 years are specifically linked to the melting of the ice sheet in Greenland.
Melting ice in Greenland, jet stream and hot summer in southern Europe – how are they connected?
As the ice thins, large amounts of fresh water are continually being released into the North Atlantic.
The sea surface is getting colder and the temperature difference to warmer water further south is increasing.
Due to the temperature difference in the water, the weather front above it strengthens.
This effect in turn influences the strength and position of the atmospheric jet stream over Europe, which is partly responsible for the climate.
Stronger winds are blowing, “driving northward-flowing warm water – the North Atlantic Current – even further north than usual.”
This would further increase the temperature gradient.
“2018 and 2022 were the most recent examples,” writes Oltmanns in the research results
published in the science magazine
New Scientist at the end of February.
In 2022, there was extreme heat in Europe, with parts of Great Britain reaching 40 degrees Celsius in summer for the first time.
Due to the drought, numerous forest fires also raged.
“A particularly hot summer this year”: Researchers expect extreme temperatures in 2024
According to the scientist, the observations from previous years “could mean that a particularly hot summer is imminent in southern Europe this year.”
And not just this.
According to the researcher, the melting of the Greenland ice sheet is currently accelerating.
As a result, a clear pattern is emerging in which Europe is expected to become increasingly hotter and drier in the coming decades.
In addition, there is a fundamental warming trend “that can be traced back to fossil fuel emissions”.
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Oltmanns and meteorologist Jung are not alone with an extreme forecast for the summer of 2024.
Biologist Mark Benecke also predicted unprecedented heat for Germany.
“From the experiences of the last few years I can tell you with almost complete certainty [...] that we will have the hellish summer of the century and millennium,” Benecke predicted in a lecture at a university.
He also justifies the exceptional temperatures with climate change.
(nz)