As of: March 24, 2024, 1:48 p.m
By: Sandra Kathe
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Possible factor in current election trends: The German Federal Council also approved the law legalizing cannabis this week.
(Symbolic photo) © Bernd von Jutrczenka/dpa
In a current Insa election survey, both the SPD and the Greens each gained one percentage point.
The FDP, on the other hand, is scratching the five percent hurdle.
Berlin - After record lows in January, the parties in the traffic light coalition are now showing a small upward trend in election surveys, which continued slightly again this week in the INSA Sunday survey.
Nevertheless, the SPD, Greens and FDP are still far from a government capable of gaining a majority; the FDP has even had to fear for weeks that it will remain in parliament.
In the survey conducted from March 18th to 22nd, the CDU is still the strongest force with 30 percent of the vote, followed by the still strong AfD, which, despite losing several percentage points since January, still has 19 percent of the vote.
The SPD under Chancellor Olaf Scholz is at 16 percent, the Greens at 13 percent, all other parties are just above or well below the five percent hurdle.
Election trends for the federal election: FDP is still scratching the five percent hurdle
Compared to the previous week, most parties had unchanged poll numbers, with only the SPD and the Greens each gaining one percentage point.
Some German media see the increase in polls for both parties as being related to the recently decided cannabis legalization.
As things stand, the new party of the former left-wing politician Sahra Wagenknecht would definitely move into the Bundestag: The Sahra Wagenknecht alliance named after her currently has six percent of the vote.
It will be significantly tighter for the currently smallest of the three traffic light partners, the FDP, which remains at five percent, unchanged from the previous week.
Behind them are the Left with three percent and the Free Voters with two percent of the vote.
The other parties fell from eight to six percent compared to the previous week.
Political party |
Poll results from March 24th |
|---|---|
CDU |
30 |
SPD |
16 (+1 percent) |
Greens |
13 (+1 percent) |
FDP |
5 |
left |
3 |
Free voters |
2 |
AfD |
19 |
BSW |
6 |
Other |
6 (-2 percent) |
As recently as mid-January, the result for the traffic light partners in the nationwide election survey looked significantly worse: on January 15th, the SPD was at just 14 percent and the Greens at 12, while the AfD had a much stronger 23 percent, a historic result Peak value came.
The FDP also achieved five percent this week, but then slipped below the five percent hurdle for a while.
The next federal election is expected to take place in late summer or autumn 2025.
Election polls for state elections: Ramelow shares thoughts on a possible coalition
Voting will take place much earlier this fall in some federal states, with election polls in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg already promising problems in forming a government in some places.
In Thuringia, where elections will take place on September 1st, the AfD is currently the strongest force with 30 percent, while the other parties have so far categorically ruled out a coalition with the right-wing populists.
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Against this background, Thuringia's incumbent Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow (Left) appeared open to a government coalition made up of the CDU, the Left and the BSW in a conversation with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung, which, according to current surveys, would together have around 51 to 52 percent of the state parliament seats.
Ramelow emphasized that although he did not hold party leader Wagenknecht in high regard and found the “personality cult” surrounding her questionable, Thuringia's top candidate Katja Wolf had done a good job as mayor of Eisenach.
(saka with dpa)