As of: March 24, 2024, 5:48 a.m
From: Foreign Policy
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This summer's G-7 summit in Italy must be much more than just a 50th anniversary celebration.
At their 50th summit, the G-7 states must set the course for both a Trump and Biden presidency.
This includes a clear signal to Moscow, a formal invitation of South Korea and Australia to the group, and a boost to the rail, energy and data corridor from India across the Arabian Peninsula to Europe.
The G-7 is an important coordination body for preparing for a cold war with China and Russia.
This article is available for the first time in German - it was first published by
Foreign Policy
magazine on March 19, 2024 .
Apulia – Planning is already underway for the G-7 summit, which Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will host from June 13th to 15th.
Since this is the 50th summit of the G-7, the club of the world's leading democracies, there will be an impulse for celebration.
G7 states face many challenges at the anniversary summit in Italy
That is also understandable.
The G-7, which includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States and, since 1981, the EU, now accounts for 54 percent of global GDP and over 55 percent of global defense spending.
Last year in Japan, this year in Italy: The G-7 states will meet for their 50th summit this summer.
© dpa
For decades, G-7 members have gained added clout on the world stage by coordinating their national economic power in pursuit of shared foreign policy priorities such as protecting democratic societies and open markets.
Significance of the G7 summit in Italy goes beyond the anniversary
However, the significance of the upcoming summit goes beyond its status as a milestone.
The future of the G-7 - and the future of global democratic cohesion more generally - is now at stake.
Republican presidential candidate-elect Donald Trump's recent disparaging comments about NATO have led many to question the credibility of America's commitment to its allies.
Part of Trump's frustration with NATO stems from the fact that other NATO members' defense spending is historically low compared to that of the United States.
Why should Americans spend more on European defense than Europeans themselves are willing to?
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Donald Trump could be more dangerous for the G7 than for NATO
However, the G-7 could prove even more vulnerable to the vagaries of a second Trump term.
For Trump, coordinating U.S. foreign policy with others is a pointless restriction on American freedom of action—unless it brings America a tangible net economic benefit.
This is exactly where the problem lies.
The United States currently has a goods trade deficit with all G-7 partners except the United Kingdom.
In 2023, these deficits amounted to $337 billion, more than the US deficit with China ($279 billion).
Trade deficits in goods are a foreign policy warning signal for Trump.
That's why he treated Angela Merkel's Germany as a bigger rival than Vladimir Putin's Russia and torpedoed the 2018 summit communiqué after G-7 leaders tried to push back against U.S. protectionism.
G7 countries should prepare for the presidency of Donald Trump and Joe Biden
The G-7 leaders could keep their fingers crossed and hope that there is a second term for the incumbent US President Joe Biden.
But that's currently a 50:50 idea at best.
Instead, they should use the next three months to build a policy agenda that could withstand the storms of a second Trump presidency while serving as a platform for a second Biden term.
The G-7's successes in Biden's first term in office are impressive.
Since Putin's large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the G-7 has imposed an unprecedented package of sanctions against Russia, ranging from freezing around $300 billion in central bank reserves held in their currencies to banning tanker insurance Russian oil is sufficient if it is sold above a maximum price of 60 dollars per barrel.
It can do this because over 93 percent of the world's reserves are held in G-7 currencies and over 90 percent of the world's maritime tonnage is covered by protection and liability insurance taken out by companies based in the G-7 countries.
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Given their shared concerns about the rise of China and Beijing's close ties to Moscow, the G-7 has also worked consistently over the past three years with its close allies South Korea and Australia to build "friendshoring" semiconductor and renewable energy supply chains that will be central to their future economic growth.
G7 states should prepare for Donald Trump's presidency at the summit
All of this important work could come to an end if a new Trump administration returns to punishing its closest allies for free riding.
However, addressing trade imbalances between G-7 members and the United States is impossible in the short term.
That's why the upcoming G-7 summit must prioritize preparation for the possible restoration of a hostile Trump presidency.
First, G-7 members must send a clear signal to Moscow that their support for protecting Ukraine's sovereignty has no time limit.
The murderous conflict in Ukraine is currently overshadowed by intense competition to see which side can outdo the other politically and economically.
With new US aid currently blocked in Congress, European countries and the EU have already taken an important step to demonstrate their resolve by providing assistance to Kiev on top of the approximately 75 billion euros they have already provided since the start of the war , have pledged an additional 77 billion euros in future multi-year financial and military aid.
G7 states should decide on Russia's money in the EU at a summit in Italy
The summit should also decide how all G-7 members will benefit from the profits from frozen Russian reserves.
The obstacle so far is that the bulk of these reserves are held by EU banks, and some governments and the European Central Bank are concerned that even the modest step of paying out the interest earned (4.4 billion euros last year) is not a solid one has a legal basis and could also undermine the credibility of the euro as a global reserve currency.
Overcoming these reservations would underline the G-7's determination;
and a Trump presidency might think twice before scrapping an agreement that would repay some of the U.S. cost of supporting Ukraine.
Formally invite Australia and South Korea to the G7 body
Second, G-7 members should formally invite South Korea and Australia to the group.
Should there be a second Biden term, their membership will strengthen the G-7's collective resilience in high technology and renewable energy.
Should there be a second Trump presidency, these two Democratic allies will be less isolated in the face of his mercantilist threats.
Third, G-7 members should provide a first tranche of funding for the plan announced last year by the Biden administration, the leaders of the EU, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and India to build a railway - to build an energy and data corridor from India through the Gulf region and Israel to Europe.
This delayed but important project, intended to compete with China's Belt and Road Initiative, will connect the young, emerging economies of India and the Gulf states with the prosperous but aging markets of Europe.
The war in Gaza has thrown the plan into question, but its benefits for Israel create an important additional incentive for a post-Netanyahu government to forge a lasting peace with the Palestinians.
At the same time, he would support the most important foreign policy achievement of the Trump presidency: the 2020 Abraham Accords, which normalized Israel's relations with several Arab states.
The G7 committee is an important institution for the upcoming Cold War
The G-7 is an invaluable geoeconomic coordination body for the emerging new, protracted Cold War with China and Russia.
Whether it is about consolidating the achievements of the Biden presidency or mitigating the global risks of a Trump presidency, the G-7 50th anniversary summit must live up to its billing.
To the author
Robin Niblett
is a distinguished fellow at Chatham House and author of The New Cold War: How the Contest Between the US and China Will Shape Our Century.
We are currently testing machine translations. This article was automatically translated from English into German.
This article was first published in English in the magazine “ForeignPolicy.com” on March 19, 2024 - as part of a cooperation, it is now also available in translation to readers of the IPPEN.MEDIA portals.