The West fears that Putin will use the Moscow attack to toughen internal repression and aggression against Ukraine

The United States this month warned Russia of the risk of a terrorist attack in Moscow, specifically from ISIS-K, the Afghanistan-based branch of the Islamic State.

In the climate of mistrust and antagonism that characterizes relations between Washington and Moscow due to the war in Ukraine, the warnings were discredited by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who saw them as a provocation.

These warnings did not serve to prevent the worst attack that Russia has suffered in two decades, a massacre that has claimed more than 130 lives.

This echo of a tragedy that could have been avoided is a blow to the figure of Putin, who has made an effort to present himself as a guarantor of stability and cultivate his security apparatus.

Against this background, the Kremlin has slipped in an alleged involvement of Ukraine.

But Washington emphasizes that it sees no reason to doubt the responsibility claimed by ISIS.

Diplomatic and intelligence sources agree with this analysis, fearing that the Kremlin will use kyiv's alleged link to escalate its escalation in the invaded country.

And that it also serves to carry out another wave of recruitment and impose a more severe security regime.

The Kremlin—like the media and people in its orbit—has avoided mentioning ISIS and its attribution for the Moscow attack.

Nor has it commented on the intelligence provided by the West or the possible failures in supervision and surveillance that did not prevent the attack.

Instead, he has pointed out without providing information or evidence that Ukraine is in some way involved in the massacre, something that kyiv categorically denies.

The US, the European Union and NATO have harshly condemned the terrorist attack.

The head of the Kremlin was slow to appear after the tragedy.

And when he did it, at noon on Saturday, it was very brief.

He promised revenge against the guilty.

Putin has built an image of himself as a strong leader and guarantor of security, who managed to end Chechen and Dagestan separatism and stop the wave of terrorist attacks at the beginning of the century.

But Friday's attack represents a blow that comes just days after he was once again crowned as undisputed leader after an unopposed vote.

The authorities have arrested 11 people while fleeing in the Bryansk region (with borders with Belarus and Ukraine) for the massacre, four of them are accused of being the material authors of the attack.

The West has isolated Putin since he launched the full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022. But at the same time it maintains open channels with Moscow, among other things to exchange information.

The Kremlin has also chosen to isolate itself—and its population—from what it considers a “collective West” and the values ​​it represents, antagonistic to those it seeks for Russia.

“The Embassy is closely monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to attack large gatherings in Moscow, including concerts, and U.S. citizens are advised to avoid large gatherings in the next 48 hours.”

The notice was released publicly by the United States Embassy in Moscow on March 7.

In it, he asked American citizens to avoid crowds, follow local media updates and be aware of their surroundings at all times.

Six other Western diplomatic missions, including the United Kingdom, had also warned their citizens of the “imminent” threat.

In addition to that public warning, US intelligence privately warned Russian authorities of the risk of a terrorist attack.

A National Security Council spokeswoman, Adrienne Watson, has confirmed that Washington had information earlier this month about a planned terrorist attack in Moscow that could target large gatherings, including concerts.

“The US government also shared this information with Russian authorities in accordance with its long-standing 'duty to warn' policy,” Watson said.

Ignore warnings

On Tuesday, in a meeting with the board of directors of one of the Russian secret services (FSB), Putin disqualified Western warnings about a possible terrorist attack.

“All of this looks like outright blackmail with the intention of destabilizing and intimidating our society,” he said, according to the transcript of his speech published by the Kremlin.

At that meeting, the Russian leader asserted that the West had once taken advantage of “various types of radical cross-border terrorist groups, even encouraging their aggression against Russia.”

Putin also slipped that kyiv has started using “terrorist methods.”

Although US intelligence maintains that the warning was specific, it is not known to what extent it was specific enough to prevent the attack.

The antagonism between the United States and Russia due to the war in Ukraine has caused distrust in the bilateral relationship between both countries, although some channels of communication remain open.

Under this “duty to warn” policy, the United States repeatedly issues warnings, both publicly and through diplomatic channels, when its intelligence services have specific information about the risk of attacks.

Washington warned Iran of the possibility of an attack on the Kerman cemetery in the tribute that thousands of people paid to General Qasem Soleimani, who was killed by the United States in 2020 in a drone attack.

Islamist terrorism is not unknown to Russia, where several massive attacks have been recorded in the last decade.

In fact, the FSB reported earlier this March that it had prevented an attack on a Moscow synagogue by what it called an Afghan branch of the Islamic State, according to the Interfax agency.

With most security forces focused on the war against Ukraine, which has entered its third year, some say the Kremlin may have neglected other threats.

Moscow is devoting great efforts to curtailing dissent and any signs of opposition to the large-scale invasion.

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